Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
243 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and again
  Friday afternoon, east of the mountains.

- Flash flooding will continue to be a concern over burn scar areas,
  particularly around the Aspen Acres fire.

- Hot and dry conditions return to the region this weekend, with
  moisture slowly returning to across Western Colorado next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has modest
westerly flow in place across the Central Rockies, with a minor
embedded shortwave translating through the faster zonal flow across
Northern Rockies at this time. Water vapor and GOES Blended Total
Water Vapor imagery indicates drying across Great Basin and into
Western Colorado, with PWATs of 40-60% of normal, with PWATs across
Eastern Colorado currently running around 100 to 120 percent of
normal. Regional radars already lighting up with scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing across the Continental Divide into the
Eastern mtns and Pikes Peak region as of 1230 pm.

For this afternoon through tonight, models remain consistent of
scattered showers and storms spreading east into a more unstable
environment across the southeast plains late this afternoon and into
the evening, where best CAPE, DCAPE and shear will be in place, with
the potential for storms to congeal into a MCS rolling into western
Kansas through the late evening and overnight hours. With ample DCAPE
in place, wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, will be a concern for storms
across the plains through the evening, with hail up to an inch in
diameter and brief heavy rainfall with the strongest storms. While
some drier air has worked into south central Colorado and into
western portions of the Aspen Acres burn area within the modest
westerly flow, can't rule out a stronger cell producing locally
heavy rainfall, with a Flash Flood watch remaining in place until 8
pm. Otherwise, expecting clearing skies from west to east with
convective outflow bringing back low level moisture across plains
within east to northeast low level flow, keeping overnight lows at
to slightly above seasonal levels in the mid 50s to lower 60s across
the plains, with mainly 40s across the higher terrain.

Modest west to northwest flow aloft remains progged across the
region for Friday, with weak easterly sfc-H7 keeping moisture in
place across the eastern mtns and plains, while drier air remains in
place across western and into south central Colorado. Latest high res
models indicate CAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg across the eastern mtns into
the far southeast plains, with isolated to scattered showers and
storms developing across the higher terrain through the afternoon,
increasing in coverage and intensity as they spread east into the
eastern plains once again, where the SPC Day 2 outlook has a
marginal to slight risk tomorrow afternoon. The increased moisture
and instability across the eastern mtns tomorrow will lead to another
risk of locally heavy rainfall across the Aspen Acres Burn area,
leading to more day of a Flash Flood Watch in effect from 12-8pm.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

For the weekend, upper level ridging builds across the Four Corners
and into the northern Rockies through Sunday, leading to warmer and
drier conditions expected across the region with modest east to
northeast flow aloft pushing the best moisture south and west of the
region. There may be enough residual moisture to support a few
showers and storms across the southeast mtns on Saturday afternoon,
though convection would be mainly high based, producing more gusty
outflow winds than measurable precipitation. This will be a concern
for fire fighting efforts once again. Otherwise, temperatures are
expected to be some 5-10F above seasonal levels in the 90s to lower
100s across the plains, in the 70s and 80s across the higher
terrain, and in the mid 80s to lower 90s across the high mtns
valleys. Will need to monitor for potential heat advisories across
the region, however, current forecast fall short of criteria being
the middle of summer.

For the becoming and into the middle of next week, the upper high
and "heat dome" is expected to move north and east into the Upper
Midwest, with modest easterly flow remaining progged across eastern
Colorado while modest south to southwest flow develops across
western Colorado. This will keep drier air in place across eastern
Colorado and allow for a slow increase in available moisture pushing
across the Desert Southwest and Great Basin into western Colorado.
While temperatures remain at to slightly above seasonal levels and
flow aloft remains modest, can't rule out spotty critical fire
weather conditions developing across the region through the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1148 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Good chances of showers and storms spreading off the higher
terrain and affecting the terminals this afternoon. Will keep
prob30 groups in from roughly 20Z-02Z, with gusty outflow
winds and brief heavy rainfall the main threats. Skies clear
overnight with generally light diurnal wind regimes into
the tail end of this period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080-
086.
Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon
for COZ079-080-086.

&&

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1124 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-101730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1124 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over
higher terrain by midday, before moving into a more unstable atmosphere
across the southeast plains. Initial impact concerns will be flash
flooding due to heavy rainfall, mainly over burn scar areas, along
with outflow winds up to 50 mph and lightning.

As storms pass over the plains, they will increase in coverage and
intensity, with some becoming strong to severe. The best chances
of severe storms will be generally east of the I-25 Corridor
along the Palmer Divide into Kiowa, Bent and Prowers counties late
this afternoon and evening. These storms will be capable of producing
outflow winds in excess of 60 mph, hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter,
frequent lightning, and briefly heavy rainfall. Storms are expected
to move into western Kansas through the evening, with clearing
skies overnight across south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Another round of afternoon showers and storms is expected on Friday.
Main impact concerns will be burn scar flash flooding, gusty outflow
winds, some small hail, and lightning. Best chances for strong to
severe storms will be along and east of the I-25 corridor, with
chances increasing further east.

Warmer and drier conditions will set in this weekend, with some
spotty critical fire weather conditions expected over the San Luis
Valley each afternoon. Moisture will then make a slow return to the
mountains next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

23/31

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
242 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

COZ081-085-092115-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
242 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN TELLER AND SOUTHWESTERN
EL PASO COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM MDT...

At 242 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Fort Carson, or 8 miles southwest of Colorado Springs,
moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southern Colorado Springs, Fountain, Fort Carson, Stratmoor,
Security, and Security-Widefield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3867 10496 3879 10497 3881 10468 3858 10474
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 283DEG 12KT 3872 10490

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
244 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

COZ079-086-092115-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
244 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM MDT...

At 243 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southwest of Pueblo Reservoir, or 19 miles southwest of Pueblo,
moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pueblo Reservoir and Beulah.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3808 10503 3822 10504 3826 10471 3801 10475
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 276DEG 13KT 3814 10494

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
259 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

COZ083-085-086-092130-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
259 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FREMONT...SOUTH
CENTRAL EL PASO AND NORTHWESTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM
MDT...

At 259 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Pinon to Pueblo West to 9 miles west of
Pueblo Reservoir. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pueblo, Pueblo Airport, Pueblo West, Pueblo Reservoir, Pinon, and
Penrose.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3855 10435 3826 10452 3824 10471 3821 10502
      3842 10500 3849 10490
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 259DEG 22KT 3842 10466 3836 10475 3830 10492

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
301 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

COZ084-085-092130-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
301 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH
330 PM MDT...

At 301 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Falcon, or 13 miles east of Colorado Springs, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eastern Colorado Springs, Ellicott, Falcon, Cimarron Hills, and
Schriever Space Force Base.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3882 10466 3885 10472 3891 10468 3901 10449
      3893 10436 3879 10439
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 255DEG 11KT 3889 10457

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
325 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

COZ084-085-092200-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
325 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 400 PM MDT...

At 325 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ellicott, or 26 miles east of Colorado Springs, moving east at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Yoder.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3883 10439 3891 10438 3895 10414 3876 10418
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 274DEG 15KT 3886 10432

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
328 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

COZ086-089-092200-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-Crowley County CO-
328 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CROWLEY AND
NORTHEASTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM MDT...

At 328 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Pueblo Depot to Blende to 11 miles south
of Salt Creek. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pueblo, Pueblo Airport, Boone, Pueblo Reservoir, Salt Creek, Blende,
Avondale, Pueblo West, Pueblo Depot, and Pinon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3846 10393 3825 10419 3796 10428 3800 10470
      3831 10481 3842 10475 3849 10452
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 266DEG 29KT 3835 10440 3825 10455 3808 10461

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simcoe