Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1257 PM MDT Thu May 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms redevelop over the
  southeast plains, the Pikes Peak region and the central
  mountains today and this evening, with at least a few storms
  (a couple potentially strong) lingering well into the
  overnight hours tonight.

- Warmer and drier Friday through the weekend, with just some
  isolated storms possible over mainly the mountains and far
  southeast plains Friday afternoon.

- Potential for a return of scattered showers and thunderstorms
  to the eastern mountains and southeast plains early next week,
  though confidence in the forecast past Sunday remains rather
  low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM MDT Thu May 28 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and into this
evening, mainly along the CO/KS border, Raton Mesa, and portions of
the Palmer Divide, as an upper low starts moving into our region
from the west. Models today have been a mixed bag in terms of storm
coverage and intensity, but a few consistencies stand out.
Instability will be modest but non-zero, with around 500 J/kg east
of the mountains, and a bit more along the southeast mountains and
adjacent I-25 corridor. Meanwhile, shear is a bit messier, with more
variable winds aloft ahead of the incoming low. High-res guidance
has 15-20 knots or so of bulk shear later this afternoon over the
plains, with values down south a bit closer to 30 knots.

One of the main limiting factors in storm intensity this evening and
into tonight will be timing. Namely, as the upper low continues to
move in and supply additional lift, peak heating will have long
passed, so our prime convective ingredients will be a bit displaced.
That being said, if the clouds manage to clear out a bit quicker
this afternoon, storms may be able to take advantage of more CAPE
earlier in the day, and with precip expected to persist into
tonight, anything that hangs on long enough should be able to take
advantage of the increasing synoptic lift and intensify. This will
mainly be a concern along and north of the Pikes Peak Region, where
upsloping winds and general orographic support will help things
along. That being said, overall confidence in strong to severe storm
formation is low at this time.

For Friday, the upper low will move into the Great Basin, increasing
southwest flow aloft. This will bring drier air and warmer
temperatures to the area, though there may still be enough lingering
moisture at the low levels for a few afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Best chances will be over the far eastern plains,
where dewpoints will remain highest throughout the afternoon. Any
storms that do form will generally be isolated, and on the weaker
side. For any storms to become stronger to severe, they would need
to encounter some kind of boundary or other extra forcing, which is
not impossible given the setup, but confidence in this occuring is
currently very low. High temperatures across the region will be
notably warmer than today, with mid-high 80s over the plains, and
mid-high 70s over and near the higher terrain and the Palmer
Divide.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM MDT Thu May 28 2026

Warmer and drier conditions are still expected to set in this
weekend as the upper low moves off to the northeast. Temperatures
will remain in the 70s-80s across the area on Saturday, with hottest
conditions over the eastern plains. On Sunday, temperatures increase
a few degrees across the board, with some areas out east exceeding
90. With the low moving out of our area, and dry air in place across
the region, precip chances remain near zero in our CWA.

Late Sunday into early Monday, a weak cool front will move south
across the plains, bringing back some low level moisture and upslope
flow over the I-25 corridor. This indicated the beginning of a
slightly cooler and wetter pattern as we move into next week, though
model agreement is still low. A series of shortwaves will pass
through the flow over our region, leading to generally unsettled
conditions, but timing is still too uncertain to narrow down the
details.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1129 AM MDT Thu May 28 2026

KALS: VFR conditions are expected through 24 hours. Breezy south
winds and mid-level cloud cover will persist through tonight and
into Friday.

KCOS and KPUB: IFR to low-MVFR cigs will persist at both terminals
for a few more hours, slowly raising into MVFR this afternoon. Winds
will remain southeasterly at 10-12 knots, primarily. There is a
chance for passing showers and thunderstorms to impact both
terminals this afternoon into early evening, with gusty outflow and
brief rain. Due to low confidence in coverage, left as PROB30 for
now. Overnight, winds lighten a bit with low clouds remaining, with
conditions slowly improving by 18Z Friday.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1132 AM MDT Thu May 28 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-291745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1132 AM MDT Thu May 28 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over portions
of the region, with the best chances over the southern plains,
southeast mountains, and the Pikes Peak Region. Main impact concerns
will be gusts to 45 mph, lightning, brief heavy rainfall, and
possibly some pea sized hail.

Tonight, scattered showers and thunderstorms may persist until
midnight in the Pikes Peak region and over the central mountains,
with isolated storms possible over the remainder of the high terrain
and along the I-25 corridor. An isolated strong storm could develop
across the Pikes Peak region this evening, with hail up to an inch
possible. Otherwise, cloud to ground lightning, wind gusts to 45 mph
and brief heavy rainfall will be the main storm hazards through this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Generally drier conditions are expected Friday into Sunday, though
isolated storms are possible over the eastern mountains and
southeast plains on Friday. Scattered showers and storms then
potentially return to the eastern mountains and plains early next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

GARBEROGLIO/GARBEROGLIO

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
326 PM MDT Thu May 28 2026

COZ074-075-087-088-282200-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft CO-
326 PM MDT Thu May 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL HUERFANO AND WEST
CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM MDT...

At 326 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gulnare, or 20 miles northwest of Trinidad. This thunderstorm was
nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
La Veta, Aguilar, Gulnare, Spanish Peaks, and Cuchara Pass.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3729 10506 3761 10497 3737 10448 3722 10477
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 300DEG 2KT 3730 10484

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Ehr

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
342 PM MDT Thu May 28 2026

COZ074-088-282215-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
342 PM MDT Thu May 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
THROUGH 415 PM MDT...

At 342 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stonewall, or 26 miles west of Trinidad, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stonewall, Segundo, and Weston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3705 10506 3729 10500 3721 10468 3699 10482
      3699 10503
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 244DEG 5KT 3707 10496

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Ehr

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
413 PM MDT Thu May 28 2026

COZ074-088-282245-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
413 PM MDT Thu May 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM MDT...

At 412 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Starkville, or near Trinidad. This thunderstorm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Trinidad, Cokedale, and Starkville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3704 10451 3711 10473 3727 10464 3718 10415
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 262DEG 2KT 3709 10458

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Ehr