Red Flag Warning 51, NWS Pueblo, CO

860 
WWUS85 KPUB 141103
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
503 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026

COZ220-222-225-150100-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0051.260514T1700Z-260515T0100Z/
Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee
County-Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet
Mountains/La Veta Pass-
503 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220, 222, AND 225...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 220, 222 and 225.

* TIMING...From 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening.

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 11 percent.

* IMPACTS...Elevated fire danger is expected. Fires will catch 
  and spread rapidly and erratically.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

054 
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URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
137 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

COZ225-151145-
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.A.0045.260516T1700Z-260517T0100Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0051.000000T0000Z-260515T0100Z/
Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet
Mountains/La Veta Pass-
137 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 225... 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 
SATURDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR 
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 225...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Fire Weather
Watch for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in 
effect from Saturday morning through Saturday evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 225.

* TIMING...For the Red Flag Warning, until 7 PM MDT this 
  evening. For the Fire Weather Watch, from Saturday morning 
  through Saturday evening.

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...Fires will catch and spread quickly. Exercise 
  extreme caution with any outdoor burning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ220-222-150100-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0051.000000T0000Z-260515T0100Z/
Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee
County-Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
137 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220 AND 222...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 220 and 222.

* TIMING...Until 7 PM MDT this evening.

* WINDS...West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...Fires will catch and spread quickly. Exercise 
  extreme caution with any outdoor burning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ229-230-233-237-151145-
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.A.0045.260516T1700Z-260517T0100Z/
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
137 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR 
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 229, 230, 233, AND 237...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Fire Weather
Watch for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in 
effect from Saturday morning through Saturday evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 229, 230, 233 and 237.

* TIMING...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening.

* WINDS...Southeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 12 percent.

* IMPACTS...Fires will catch and spread quickly. Exercise 
  extreme caution with any outdoor burning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

720 
WWUS85 KPUB 150054
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URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
654 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

COZ225-151700-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0051.000000T0000Z-260515T0100Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0045.260516T1700Z-260517T0100Z/
Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet
Mountains/La Veta Pass-
654 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 225...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 7 PM MDT THIS 
EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 225...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 225.

* TIMING...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening.

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 9 percent.

* IMPACTS...Fires will catch and spread quickly. Exercise 
  extreme caution with any outdoor burning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ220-222-150200-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0051.000000T0000Z-260515T0100Z/
Upper Arkansas River Valley Including Lake County and Chaffee
County-Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
654 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 220 AND 222...

Relative humidity values are expected to continue to increase as 
temperatures decrease after sunset. Winds are also beginning to
weaken below warning thresholds. For these reasons, today's Red
Flag Warning will be allowed to expire as scheduled.

$$

COZ229-230-233-237-151700-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0045.260516T1700Z-260517T0100Z/
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
654 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 229, 230, 233, AND 237...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 229, 230, 233 and 237.

* TIMING...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening.

* WINDS...Southeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 12 percent.

* IMPACTS...Fires will catch and spread quickly. Exercise 
  extreme caution with any outdoor burning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1128 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon, with gusty
  outflow winds expected for thunderstorms.

- Precipitation chances increase more Sunday into Monday with
  more troughing pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 101 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

Today and Tonight: For Wednesday, active weather starts to return to
south central and southeastern Colorado as a pattern change takes
place. The ridging that has been in place will begin to breakdown in
response to an approaching wave. As this materializes, orographic
forcing will begin to increase as flow starts to surge, with a
modest uptick in moisture also expected ahead of the approaching
wave. With the increased forcing and moisture, showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated to develop during the early afternoon,
initially along the higher terrain, and then push eastward across
the valleys and I-25 corridor by mid to late afternoon. With high
cloud bases, large DCAPE values >1000 J/kg, and steep low level
lapse rates, one or two more organized thunderstorms will be capable
of producing strong outflow winds up to 55 mph. Otherwise, gusty
outflow winds to around 40 mph and lightning will be the primary
concerns with any showers and thunderstorms. While typically showers
and storms dissipate during the evening hours as instability wanes,
modest instability will remain overnight. This instability, along
with an additional surge of midlevel moisture from the west, will
allow for thundershowers to linger into the overnight hours. This
shower coverage will remain mostly along the higher terrain given
orographics, but spillage across the valleys will remain possible.
With that all said, any showers still present overnight are
anticipated to dissipate by early Thursday morning, as any remaining
instability finally lessens. Beyond all of that, mostly clear skies
early will become partly to mostly cloudy during the afternoon hours
and persist into Thursday morning, with breezy winds for much of the
region. Outside of any thunderstorms, winds will be be gustiest
during the afternoon hours, when diurnal mixing is greatest, with
wind gusts of 25-35 mph expected areawide. Then looking at
temperatures, another warm day and night is anticipate, given
persistent downsloping winds. Highs will rise into the mid 80s to
low 90s for the plains, into the upper 70s to 80s for the valleys,
and into the 50s to low 70s for the mountains. As for lows, the
plains will fall into the 50s to low 60s, the valleys into the 40s
to mid 50s, and the mountains into the 30s to 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 101 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

Thursday - Tuesday: For the long term period, active weather
continues, particularly for the later part of this period. Flow will
become more zonal Thursday - Saturday, with more troughiness Sunday -
Tuesday. Overall, confidence remains high (70-80%) in this pattern
shift, though with lower confidence in how the troughing will
ultimately evolve during the later part of this timeframe. With that
all said, this pattern will support heightened precipitation
chances, particularly across the mountains where forcing will be
greatest. Precipitation chances may become more widespread Sunday -
Monday, though this will heavily depend on the troughing pattern. In
addition, fire weather will be a concern through this period, given
the uptick in flow over the region, and low moisture content,
particularly at the surface. The area of greatest concern for fire
weather potential will be across the eastern plains and southeastern
mountains, where dry, downsloping winds will materialize at times.
Otherwise, as just alluded to, winds will be breezy through this
period, with partly to mostly cloudy skies persisting. Looking at
temperatures, Thursday - Sunday will continue the warm and above
seasonal trend across south central and southeastern Colorado. Then
for Monday and Tuesday, a cool down is anticipated, as a cold front
drops southward during Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Low chance
(10-20 percent) of a -shra this afternoon at all terminals, but
won't include at this time and just monitor radar trends for any
increased potential later today. All sites could see a period
(22z-02z) of gusty/erratic outflow winds from distant
convection/virga, with brief gusts to 40 kts possible. Any
showers end this evening, with decreasing clouds and winds after
02z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for COZ220-222-225.

&&

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...PETERSEN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1158 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-141800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1158 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop today,
initially over and near the mountains, and then spread across the
valleys and plains mid to late afternoon. Some storms may be
strong this afternoon, with wind gusts up to 55 mph and small
hail possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thursday through Saturday, thunderstorms will remain possible,
mostly over and near the mountains, with gusty winds and
lightning the main concerns. Then for Sunday and Monday, there is
potential for more widespread showers and thunderstorms. In
addition, areas of critical fire weather conditions will be
possible given the increase in periods of dry, downsloping winds
with the more unsettled pattern, with the greatest fire weather
risk across the eastern plains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

10/SIMCOE