Freeze Warning 4, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1115 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme fire danger is expected across our southern plains
  today, with southwest winds gusting 45 to 50 mph and humidity
  values in the single digits.

- 50 mph winds are expected over the southern mountains and the
  San Luis Valley, which may lead to blowing dust over the
  valley, blowing snow over the mountains, and travel concerns
  resulting in both cases.

- Showers will be possible north of Highway 50 and west of I-25,
  with thunderstorms mainly across the Pikes Peak region.

- A Freeze Watch remains in place for El Paso and Kiowa counties
  tonight, and frost may be possible for other portions of the
  plains as well.

- Cooler and wetter weather is expected for all areas tomorrow
  and Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1112 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026

Lots of changes to the forecast this morning, mainly with
headlines. Blowing Dust and High Wind Warnings have been added
to the San Luis Valley with high winds mainly confined to the
central and southern portions of the area. Still monitoring Baca
and Las Animas counties for potential Blowing Dust Advsy or Dust
storm warnings once the winds kick in as the front lifts
northward. These decisions will need to be made based on
mesoscale details with short fused type warnings.  -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026

For the plains..The elusive cold front has sagged back south since
sunset, and is now sitting between Springfield and Campo across Baca
County. This front and where it ends up again this afternoon will be
the driving factor in today's forecast across the plains once again.
North of the front and west of I-25, stratus has begun to develop up
against the terrain as of midnight. USAFA is reporting ceilings down
to 2,000ft, and the Colorado Springs airfield is starting to see
lower scattered decks as well. Models continue to suggest that rain
will be possible as upslope continues across the mountains/plains
interface throughout this morning. Thunderstorms will be possible
across the Pikes Peak region again this afternoon, though severe
development is not expected. That said, lots of shear will present
over the region today, so if any areas clear out and warm up,
chances for a stronger storm or two may be possible, especially over
the higher terrain of the Pikes Peak region. The main forecast
concern on our plains today though will be our high end Red Flag
Warning across our southern plains. Las Animas and Baca counties are
both included in this warning, and southern portions of Bent and
Prowers counties may see periods of critical conditions as well
depending on how far north/east the front gets shoved this
afternoon. Over these areas, single digit relative humidity values
and southwest wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph are expected. The strongest
winds and lowest humidities will be over Baca County this afternoon,
which will lead to the possibility for extreme fire behavior for any
new or existing fires today. Please use extra caution and take care
not to start a wildfire today. One last note for the plains, gusty
winds over our southeast plains may also lead to blowing dust and
hazardous travel conditions. Once the sun sets, the front *finally*
pushes itself completely southwards, allowing all areas to cool and
moisten through the overnight hours. This will put an end to fire
weather concerns for a few days. Overnight lows will be chilly in
our post frontal airmass though, and areas north of Highway 50 may
see hard freeze conditions by Tuesday morning. El Paso and Kiowa
counties are both under Freeze Watches for tonight through early
Tuesday morning, and temperatures down into the upper 20s will be
possible. Another tier of counties or two may also see the potential
for frost depending on clearing through the overnight hours.

For the high country and the San Luis Valley..Models bring the
trough axis through our southern mountains between 9 AM and Noon or
so, which will be the windiest timeframe for the San Juans, the San
Luis Valley, and the Sangres. The NBM continues to be the only
outlier suggesting high wind criteria, so have continued to trend
towards other model consensus, which keeps winds below warning
levels across the area. The San Luis Valley is likely to see gusts
upwards of 50 mph or so though, especially if any showers survive
off the mountains and help to enhance gusts coming down the terrain.
Areas of blowing dust are likely across the Valley today, especially
with any localized stronger winds from decaying showers. Over the
mountains, a quick 2 to 4 inches of wind driven snow will be
possible for the San Juans and the central mountains. Though totals
will be low, degraded visibility and hazardous travel conditions may
be possible from blowing snow, especially over mountain passes. Snow
comes to an end for both range by around midnight or so at the
latest.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026

Tuesday and Wednesday..

The front is finally through us and will stay through us for Tuesday
and Wednesday. We stay in southwest flow aloft as messy troughing
sits out west. This pattern will keep temperatures cooler than
normal, and it will keep precip chances over us as well. Models
bring shortwave energy through the trough and over us on Tuesday,
which will help to develop weak showers and thunderstorms over the
high country on Tuesday afternoon, and better chances for widespread
rain on the plains overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday. Daytime
highs look to stay in the 60s both days, with decent chances for
precipitation both days.

Thursday Onwards..

Models are not in great agreement about the pattern late week
onwards, but the general consensus suggests some type of northwest
flow with a trough passing to our north. This looks to bring
temperatures back into the near normal range for Thursday and
Friday, with warmer than normal temperatures by the weekend. Chances
for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast nearly
every afternoon, especially across the high country.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026

KALS: Gusty southwest winds will be in place throughout the day,
gusting 25-30 knots this morning and closer to 45 knots by 16Z or
so. With the strongest gusts, there will be a period late this
morning through mid afternoon with the potential for periods of
blowing dust and reduced visibility. After 22Z, there is also a low-
end chance that rain showers will move off the terrain and pass bu
the terminal, but chances are low enough to leave as PROB30 for now.

KCOS: Winds will turn SE later this morning, gusting to 25 knots.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move in from the north-
northwest after 20Z or so, bringing precipitation and gusty outflow
to the terminal. Outflow from storms will reach 35 knots or so.
Precip departs the immediate area prior to 00Z, though gusty winds
and MVFR-IFR cigs will remain the rest of the period. Winds will
turn northerly later this afternoon as a frontal surge moves in.

KPUB: MVFR to IFR conditions expected through the period. Winds turn
ESE later this morning, with a lower-end chance for thunderstorms to
pass by the terminal during the afternoon. Winds will generally gust
to 25 knots or so, with any outflow from thunderstorms gusting to
about 35 knots. Winds will turn north later in the day as a frontal
surge moves in.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blowing Dust Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for
COZ069>071.
High Wind Warning until 4 PM MDT this afternoon for COZ070-071.
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for
COZ084-085-095-096.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ230-233-
237.

&&

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
112 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-190715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
112 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Extreme fire danger is expected across Las Animas and Baca counties
today, where southwest winds gusting 45 to 50 mph are expected,
along with single digit relative humidity values. These conditions
may lead to extreme fire behavior for any new or existing or
existing fires. Please use extra caution and take care not to start
a wildfire today.

50 mph winds are also expected over the southern mountains and the
San Luis Valley, which may result in blowing snow over the
mountains, and blowing dust over the valley. In either case,
hazardous travel conditions may be possible. Please check road
conditions and use caution on areas roadways in low visibility
situations today!

Showers and weak thunderstorms will be possible for areas mainly
along and north of Highway 50 this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Saturday

Chances for showers and weak thunderstorms persist daily for
Tuesday through Saturday, especially over and near the higher
terrain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

EHR/EHR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1106 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1052 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 S Alamosa             37.43N 105.87W
05/18/2026  M69 MPH          Alamosa            CO   ASOS

            ASOS station KALS Alamosa Airport.

&&

kam