Freeze Warning 3, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1153 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A passing winter system will bring heavy, wet snow to the area
later today through Weds Night. Wetting rain also expected for the
lower elevations at times.

- Slushy roads, hazardous travel, and damage to trees and power
lines will all be possible.

- Subfreezing temperatures expected across the area Weds Night
  into early Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

Model agreement continues to improve on the evolution of our active
weather pattern this week. Two separate systems will impact SE
Colorado; a broad upper trough just to our north and east, and a
second low pressure system passing to our south. A northerly surge
is already through the plains, due to the northern trough passing
by. As a result, surface winds over the plains will turn ESE, giving
us persistent upsloping to help enhance precipitation and cloud
cover. Precip will mainly start increasing in chance and coverage
after around midday, after a brief lull in the morning hours. This
will coincide with an increase in surface winds, with showers
spreading over the Palmer Divide, mountains/plains interface, and
generally other areas north of Highway 50.

With this wintry system coming so late in the season, temperatures
will play a big role in what kinds of precipitation we see at the
surface, along with rain/snow accumulations and rates. To start,
today's showers will initiate as rain across the lower elevations,
while the peaks of the mountains see snow. Initial mountain snow
accumulations look to be on the lighter side through the rest of the
afternoon, though the top of Pikes Peak will likely see a few inches
by sunset. Moving into tonight, temperatures will quickly drop over
the top of the Palmer, with rain switching over to snow prior to
midnight. By Weds morning, snow levels are expected to drop over the
rest of I-25 and portions of the plains north of Highway 50.

The tricky part will be where the heaviest accumulations will be for
snow, along with considering how much of it melts. With temperatures
remaining above freezing over the plains and parts of the Palmer at
the initial onset of the system, we're still expecting a lot of
melting to occur with the initial transition from rain to snow. This
will be most prevalent over roadways and other darker surfaces,
while snow will accumulate better over grass, plants, etc. Even so,
this could have its own impacts.

First, melting snow on roadways could easily lead to slushy, slick
travel conditions. Despite the lack of initial accumulation, the
combination of limited visibility in heavier precip and slushy roads
will make travel hazardous. Next, the snow we're expecting should be
on the heavier and wetter side of things. As such, expect some
damage to leafy trees and other plants. Tree branches could come
down from the added weight, and damage to power lines and the
potential for power outages should be noted as well.

Moving into Wednesday, temperatures will come up a bit during the
day as precip continues across the area. Latest forecast has high
temperatures reaching into the 40s over the plains, though that may
drop a few degrees depending on how heavy precip is at the surface.
Regardless, expecting an afternoon switch from solely snow to a
rain/snow mix, though snow will become the dominate precip mode
quickly again once the sun starts to set.

Not much change to the forecasted snow totals with this latest
update. Heaviest amounts will be over the southeast mountains,
Teller County, and the Palmer Divide, with some areas expected to
receive over a foot by Weds Night. That being said, with the melting
we're expecting with this system, those amounts will not be on the
ground at the same time. Even so, impact-wise, still expecting a
heavy wet snow along with potential tree/power lines damage, as well
as slushy roads. As such, have upgraded Teller and northern El Paso
to Winter Storm Warnings. Given the lesser impacts expected
elsewhere, left the Advisories as they were for now, but may need to
look at upgrading the peaks of the southeast mountains later in the
day, assuming QPF doesn't come down with incoming model runs.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

Not much change to the long-term forecast at this time. The area
will dry out Weds Night into Thursday as the upper trough pushes
east of us. With cold air still in place and fewer clouds, Wednesday
Night will be cold. Sub-freezing temps are expected across the CWA,
with a Freeze Watch in place for the eastern plains.

Breezy northwest flow sets in aloft on Thursday as an upper ridge
builds over the western CONUS. Highs will climb into the 60s to low-
70s over most of our area, with drier conditions setting in.
Temperatures will continue to warm as we head into next weekend,
though enough moisture and lighter winds should keep us free of any
widespread fire weather concerns. Another shortwave is expected to
pass close to our region around Saturday, sending another cold front
onto the plains and bringing temps back towards seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1152 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

Active period expected across all of the TAF sites, with rain
and snow along with reduced vis, coinciding with MVFR and IFR
ceilings occurring.

Have observed drizzle or light rain begin to take shape across
the Pikes Peak region at the start of the period, mainly
affecting COS at this time. This will likely continue for the
remainder of the afternoon, with rain remaining the only precip
type at this time. Additional showery development occurs later
this afternoon, with this likely moving across PUB and with ALS
staying mainly dry. While the risk of thunderstorms looks low
this afternoon, did maintain the PROB30 at PUB. Will continue to
monitor the need for any mention of thunder today, as again,
chances are low. The MVFR ceilings in place at PUB and COS will
persist, with COS observing lower IFR ceilings at times.

Steadier rain settles in later this evening, though may be
rather light at times. Ceilings don't really improve for COS and
PUB, with additional downward trends likely this evening and
into the overnight hours. ALS remains dry for most of the night
and even into towards the end of the period, with VFR conditions
continuing. Does look like there is a low chance for a rain
snow mix late tonight, but confidence is low. Higher chances for
showers returns for ALS right at the end of the period.
Primarily rain will continue for PUB later tonight, though snow
may mix in at times. COS should see a switchover to all snow
around midnight tonight, with snow then continuing through the
period. IFR ceilings will likely continue for both COS and PUB
through the end of the period and will monitor for periods of
even lower ceilings.

A period of gusty winds will occur at all sites this afternoon
with lighter winds then expected through the period. The
exception will be at COS when a wind shift to the north occurs
later tonight, and then with wind speeds and gusts increasing
through Wednesday morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ058-
060-063-076.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM MDT Wednesday for
COZ059.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Wednesday for COZ068.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT Wednesday night for
COZ072-074-078-079-087.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT Wednesday night for
COZ073-075-080>082.
Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
morning for COZ083>089-093>099.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Wednesday for COZ084.

&&

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1241 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-060645-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1241 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A wintry mix of weather will spread across our area through
Wednesday evening. The peaks of the mountains will get accumulating
snow throughout, while the lower elevations start as rain and switch
to snow when temperatures drop. Expect a heavy, wet snow, with
highest amounts over the peaks of the southeast mountains, as well
as Teller and northern El Paso Counties. Some of these areas may
receive 8 to 12 inches or more of total accumulation. However, much
of the initial snowfall will melt, so actual measurements will
likely not reflect this.

For impacts, roads could turn slushy and slick very quickly, leading
to hazardous travel conditions. This will be most prevalent from
late Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon. Additionally,
accumulating snow may cause damage to tree branches and power lines.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Precipitation will move out of our area late Wednesday Night into
Thursday. Cold air will remain in place with sub-freezing
temperatures expected across the area.  Precautions should be taken
to protect sensitive vegetation and exposed plumbing.

A few light snow showers will be possible over the Central Mountains
Thursday through Sunday. A few thunderstorms may be possible on
Saturday afternoon and evening on the Plains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

GARBEROGLIO/GARBEROGLIO