Flash Flood Watch 16, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1244 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms continue into tonight, with flash flooding
concerns for the Aspen Acres burn scar.

- Showers and storms will continue across the area each day this
week. Heavy rain/flash flood risks continue.

- Gradual downturn in thunderstorm chances for the end of the
  week into the weekend, though threat of storms never
  completely goes away, with at least isolated activity over the
  mountains possible each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Pattern remains on track from previous estimates, with high pressure
over the area and the monsoon plume in place. Expect another round
of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening, with
storms forming over the terrain and pushing east into tonight. PWATs
remain high (>100% of normal) across the region, and with the
monsoon tap continuing, storms will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall and flash flooding concerns. The Aspen Acres burn scar will
at high risk, along with low-lying terrain and some urban areas.
Though shear will be on the low-side this afternoon, there should be
sufficient CAPE and moisture for a few stronger to marginally severe
storms, with winds 55-60 mph and some small hail. Main impact
concern from storms will be the flash flood potential, followed by
gusty outflow winds. Highs today will be warm again, with 80s over
the interior valleys and mid-high 90s out east.

Storms move off to the east and dissipate later tonight, though
outflow interactions may keep things percolating a bit later than
the CAMs suggest, which has been a pattern recently.

Largely a rinse and repeat pattern for Tuesday, with a few subtle
changes. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, with more cloud
cover early in the day. Storm coverage will be limited early in the
day, but by afternoon diurnal heating and low-level moisture will
help CAPE creep up above 700-800 J/kg. Activity will initiate over
the mountains as usual, pushing southeast as a weak front moves in
beneath a passing disturbance aloft. As this front moves over the
plains, localized increases to shear and lift will allow for some
strong to severe thunderstorms east of the mountains. Will again
need to watch for heavy rain and flash flooding over the burn scars,
while strong outflow winds and some possible hail remain concerns
further east.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Looking through the rest of the week, Wednesday still appears to be
our most active day. Deeper moisture will allow for higher
instability across the plains, though morning cloud cover may
introduce a cap that delays storms until later. Heavy rain will be a
concern across much of the area, with at least marginally severe
storms possible over the eastern plains again.

The upper ridge will amplify later in the week, slowly shifting to
the west. This will give us a slight warming/drying trend through
Saturday, though scattered showers and storms will still be possible
over and near the terrain each day. The plains may see a few storms
as well, but much more isolated in nature. Flash flooding will
continue to be a concern over the burn scars. For temperatures,
highs will mostly be in the high 80s-90s, with a few areas out east
will likely hit the triple-digit mark.

Later this weekend into early next week, long-range guidance is
showing signs for an upper low to track in from the Pacific
Northwest, which could bring a quick return to cooler and wetter
conditions across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR is mostly expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected across the
area today, with PROB30s at all terminals late this afternoon into
this evening. Gusts near storms will be capable of producing outflow
winds 30-40 knots. Coverage will be too scattered for high
confidence in rain at the terminals, but if something does drift
overhead, briefly heavy rainfall will be possible. Vis could also
drop into MVFR briefly.

Storms will depart the area after about 03Z this evening, though
showers may linger near KPUB for a bit longer. Light winds and VFR
will then return into Tuesday morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080-
086.

&&

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1122 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-251730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1122 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains in the
early afternoon again today, with activity spreading across lower
elevations and the plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. The
main hazard from storms today will be locally heavy rainfall and
flash flooding, with areas over and near the Aspen Acres burn scar
continuing to be susceptible to flooding and debris flows. Storms
today and this evening may also produce gusty winds to 55 mph,
frequent cloud to ground lightning and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening
through the week, with the greatest coverage of storms from Tuesday
and Wednesday, then drier air begins to decrease storm chances from
Friday into the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall will again be the
main hazard from storms through the period, with a flash flood risk
continuing for the Aspen Acres burn scar into at least mid-week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

10/10