Flash Flood Warning 77, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
221 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Diurnal showers and storms will persist across the region, with
  flash flooding concerns continuing for the Aspen Acres burn scar.

- Severe storms remain possible this afternoon across the southeast
  plains, with a westward expansion of severe storm threat towards the
  eastern mountains on Wednesday.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances persist on Thursday with gradual
  downturn in available moisture Friday and Saturday.

- Another slow increase in storm activity for Sunday into early
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has modest
westerly flow aloft across the region with the center of a large
upper high in place across central New Mexico. Water vapor imagery
also indicates a weak embedded wave translating through the westerly
flow across the northern Rockies, with GOES Blended Total Water
Vapor imagery indicating PWATS running from 100 to 130 percent of
normal from west to east across the region at this time. Regional
radars have scattered showers and thunderstorms across the higher
terrain, with a few storms pushing across the immediate adjacent
plains at this time.

Latest model data continues to support storms developing over the
higher terrain and pushing east across the plains, where dew pts in
the 50s to lower 60s and just enough shear support the threat of a
few severe storms producing strong winds to around 60 mph and hail
to near an inch in diameter. With the continued available moisture,
stronger storms will also be capable of producing heavy rain,
leading to the potential for flash flooding, especially for storms
developing and moving across the Aspen Acres burn area. Storms to
diminish from west to east through the evening, with the passing
northern Rockies wave sending a weak backdoor front across the plains,
which could keep convection ongoing across the far southeast plains
through the overnight hours.

An uptick in severe storm coverage is expected on Wednesday, with
enhanced upslope and low level moisture behind the passing backdoor
front, combined with more west to northwest flow aloft expected as
upper high continues to lift north and east into the Four Corners
region through the day. Model data continues to support PWATs
increasing between 120 and 150 percent of normal, combined with
another weak embedded short wave, to produce scattered to numerous
showers and storms over the higher terrain through the late morning
and afternoon, with storms intensifying as they push into the I-25
Corridor and southeast plains through the afternoon and evening
hours. Heavy rain, strong winds in excess of 60 mph and hail of
1 to 2 inches in diameter will be possible across the plains on
Wednesday. This, along with the threat of training storms across
the eastern mountains has prompted the issuance of another Flash
Flood Watch for the Aspen Acres from noon through 9 pm.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

For Thursday and Friday, the upper ridge remains progged to drift
north and west keeping modest north to northwest flow in place
across the Central Rockies. This will tend to slowly diminish
available moisture and keep most of afternoon and evening storms
tied closer to the higher terrain. By Saturday into Sunday, flow
aloft slowly becomes more west to southwest, as broad upper
troughing across the West Coast pushes the upper high back south
and east into the Southern Rockies. This will bring another slow
uptick in available moisture and storm coverage, especially for the
higher terrain along and west of the ContDvd. West to southwest flow
aloft remains progged across the region through the middle of next
week, keeping chances of the showers and storms across the region,
with the best coverage across the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the
next 24 hours, with scattered showers and thunderstorms pushing
off the higher terrain and across the immediate adjacent plains.
Will keep prob30s generally from 21Z-02Z with gusty winds to 40
kts and brief MVFR conditions in heavy rain possible at the
terminals. Skies partially clear overnight with generally light
diurnal wind regimes expected through the rest of the taf
period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080-
086.
Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ079-080-086.

&&

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1050 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-261700-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1050 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over the
higher terrain this afternoon, with activity spreading across
lower elevations and the plains from mid-afternoon into the
evening. The main hazard from storms today will be locally heavy
rainfall and flash flooding, with areas over and near the Aspen
Acres burn scar continuing to be susceptible to flooding and
debris flows. Many storms today and this evening may also produce
gusty winds of 50 to 60 mph, frequent cloud to ground lightning
and small hail. One or two storms over the far eastern plains near
the Kansas border could become severe late this afternoon and
evening, with wind gusts over 60 mph and quarter sized hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening
through the end of the week, with the greatest coverage of storms
on Wednesday and Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall will again be
the main hazard from storms through the period, with a flash flood
risk continuing for the Aspen Acres burn scar into at least
Thursday. There will also be a threat of severe storms on the
plains Wednesday afternoon and evening, with gusty winds over 60
mph the main storm threat.

Slightly drier air will spread across the area over the weekend,
which should decrease but won't completely end storm chances
across southern Colorado. The best chance of storms over the
weekend will be across the mountains each afternoon and evening.
with the least chance for storms over the far southeast plains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

23/10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
322 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

COZ094-252200-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
322 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
THROUGH 400 PM MDT...

At 322 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kim, or 43 miles northeast of Des Moines, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kim.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3722 10350 3733 10353 3747 10329 3725 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 249DEG 21KT 3730 10343

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
325 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

COZ081-084-085-252200-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
325 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN TELLER AND
NORTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM MDT...

At 325 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Palmer Lake, or 19 miles northwest of Colorado Springs, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Colorado Springs, Woodland Park, Monument, Air Force
Academy, Palmer Lake, Green Mountain Falls, Chipita Park, Gleneagle,
and Cascade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3903 10472 3889 10499 3908 10507 3913 10501
      3913 10494
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 316DEG 15KT 3908 10499

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
330 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

COZ077-079-083-252200-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
330 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FREMONT COUNTY
THROUGH 400 PM MDT...

At 330 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Canon City, or 35 miles west of Pueblo. This thunderstorm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Florence and Canon City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3831 10527 3834 10531 3838 10533 3846 10525
      3840 10513 3834 10512
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 226DEG 1KT 3836 10526

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
358 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

COZ086-252230-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
358 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTY THROUGH
430 PM MDT...

At 358 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pueblo Reservoir, or near Pueblo, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pueblo, Pueblo Reservoir, and Pueblo West.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3824 10481 3832 10478 3831 10456 3812 10469
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 289DEG 9KT 3825 10474

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
359 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

COZ077>079-083-086-252230-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
359 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FREMONT...
NORTHEASTERN CUSTER AND WESTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM MDT...

At 359 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Florence, or 31 miles west of Pueblo, moving east
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wetmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3818 10530 3834 10528 3837 10501 3812 10505
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 274DEG 12KT 3826 10520

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
423 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

COZ079-083-086-252300-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
423 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FREMONT...
NORTHEASTERN CUSTER AND WEST CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM
MDT...

At 423 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles south of Florence, or 27 miles west of Pueblo, moving southeast
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Beulah and Wetmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3816 10521 3825 10519 3827 10513 3817 10485
      3801 10505
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 298DEG 15KT 3817 10510

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simcoe