Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Pueblo, CO

017 
WGUS75 KPUB 130028
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
628 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

COC065-130038-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FF.W.0046.000000T0000Z-260813T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lake CO-
628 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE WILLOW BURN SCAR WILL EXPIRE AT 630 PM
MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY...

The threat of heavy rain has diminished and flooding is no longer
expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road
closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3927 10644 3927 10637 3918 10637 3919 10647

$$

EP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
239 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this
  afternoon and evening, with the highest coverage across the
  mountains and valleys.

- Showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage on Thursday
  over much of south central and southeast Colorado, with an
  increased of flash flooding.

- Showers and storms continue to increase in coverage for the
  end of the week and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Main concerns through the period are with increasing chances
for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening,
more importantly, on Thursday over much of southern Colorado.
Have issued a Flash Flood Watch for the Aspen Acres Burn Scar
Thursday afternoon and evening.

Latest radar imagery is depicting only isolated to widely
scattered precip development and this is primarily tied to the
higher terrain at this time. While increasing coverage and even
intensity of showers and thunderstorms will occur this
afternoon, this should stay over and near the higher terrain.
Most of the mountains should observe at least isolated
development, however, think the highest coverage will be across
the central mountains. Greatest height falls and forcing are
occurring in this location, and in a location of higher
instability. Elsewhere, large scale ascent is lower and with low
to mid level focus also lacking. Additionally, guidance shows
dewpoints dropping this afternoon over and near the southeast
mountains, which makes sense given latest satellite imagery
indicating an area of drier air lifting into Colorado at this
time. This is also reflected in latest forecast soundings. The
strongest storms over the central mountains will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall, outflow winds to 50-55 mph, and
frequent lightning.

A front will push south down the plains early this evening,
bringing a period of stronger northerly winds. While the winds
should not be overly strong, would not be surprised to see a
period of winds gusting to 30 to 40 mph for a time. Precip
diminishes this evening through much of Thursday morning,
however, increasing moisture and instability pushing into much
of the area will support additional precip chances on Thursday.
This moisture and instability will occur with stronger large
scale ascent and low to middle focus. Given this occurring,
think most areas over southern Colorado will observe showers and
thunderstorms. Forecast soundings are showing tall moist and
unstable soundings with weak flow in place. This should support
the development of slow moving thunderstorms capable of
producing heavy rainfall. Given the increased potential for this
to occur over the Aspen Acres burn scar, have issued a Flash
Flood Watch for Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

For the long term period, active weather continues for south
central and southeastern Colorado. The favorable monsoon pattern
will continue for the region, with the high pressure remaining
to the southeast, and moist southwesterly flow continuing to
stream over the area. With that said, there may be some wobble
in the location of the high pressure early next week, but model
guidance is in decent agreement with keeping moist flow in
place, leading to better confidence in the forecast. So, with
this pattern in place, daily showers and thunderstorms are
expected, with heavy rain, gusty outflow winds, and frequent
lightning the main hazards. In addition, flash flooding may
become a concern heading into this period due to both slow
moving thunderstorms and the potential for areas to receive
multiple rounds of heavy rain on different days. Otherwise,
winds are expected to remain light outside of thunderstorms,
with increased cloud cover during the afternoon and evening
hours. Looking at temperatures, much of the region will cool to
around and below seasonal values for mid August.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1102 AM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions and mainly dry weather are anticipated this
forecast period for all of the terminals. Afternoon and early
shower and thunderstorm development is anticipated, however, the
highest coverage of development will stay over and near the
higher terrain. Given the low chance that a few storms do make
it off of the mountains this afternoon, have maintained the
prob30 at all sites.

The main impacts with winds this period will be early this
evening for COS and PUB as a fairly strong front pushes south
over the plains. Made little changes to the wind shift, though
did bump the shift by an hour for COS and did increase the
speeds and gusts by a couple of knots. Will keep an eye on this
shift, as a small window of higher speeds and gusts will be
possible.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ079-080-086.

&&

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...SIMCOE/RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1101 AM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-131715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1101 AM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening, with the highest coverage across the
mountains and valleys. The strongest storms may produce heavy
rain, outflow winds to 50-55 mph, and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Multiple days of afternoon showers and storms are expected into
early next week. Heavy rain, gusty outflow winds, and frequent
lightning may accompany the strongest storms. In addition, flash
flooding may become a concern given slow moving storms and the
potential for areas to receive multiple rounds of heavy rain over
several days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

RODRIGUEZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
243 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

COZ081-083-085-086-122115-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
243 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL FREMONT...
SOUTHEASTERN TELLER...SOUTHWESTERN EL PASO AND NORTHWESTERN PUEBLO
COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM MDT...

At 243 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Penrose, or 18 miles northwest of Pueblo, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pinon, Penrose, and Pueblo West.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10488 3839 10508 3868 10493 3847 10455
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 222DEG 17KT 3841 10490

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KTS