Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Pueblo, CO

918 
WGUS75 KPUB 272156
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
356 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

COC027-101-272206-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-260727T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Custer CO-Pueblo CO-
356 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR IS
CANCELLED FOR EAST CENTRAL CUSTER AND SOUTHWESTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3799 10509 3801 10514 3805 10511 3808 10511
      3811 10510 3812 10498 3811 10493 3808 10487
      3804 10483 3803 10491 3799 10505

$$

Simcoe

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
127 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Afternoon/evening rain chances (some heavy) increasing between now
and late Wednesday as monsoon plume shunted eastward.

- Continued hot, but NOT as hot as yesterday and today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

For the rest of Today...

Another very hot day over the region is anticipated as max
temperatures are once again going to get at or above 100F across most
of the plains. Many areas over the plains will likely see temps 105
or hotter. The good news is this will be the last day of this record
breaking heat as the monsoon plume is being shunted eastward and a
weak boundary will move across the region late this afternoon or
early evening. The combination of these two events should allow for
some scattered storms to move/develop on the plains and move
eastward later this evening. The storm activity is not expected to
be widespread, but there will likely be more convection over the
plans than we have seen in awhile.

With the combination of the boundary moving through and the precip
activity, it will likely get breezy to windy across a good part of
the plains this evening, with northeast to north winds prevailing.

In the meantime, showers and thunderstorms will be scattered to
likely across the mountains this afternoon. As always, if a strong
storm develops in a flash flood prone area, then flash flooding will
be possible (especially over the Aspen Acres (AA) burn area).

Tomorrow, it will still be relatively hot but there will be a much
better chance of showers and thunderstorms over all of the region.
With plenty of low level moisture, mid/upper level monsoon moisture
pushing in from the west, and (weak) synoptically evident short
waves, there likely will some thunderstorms that will produce heavy
rain. Guidance is painting QPF maximums in and around the AA burn
area and this area will have to be carefully watched tomorrow
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will likely last well into the
evening hours across the plains (and possibly the mtns). This
activity will also have the capability to produce locally heavy
convective showers.

Max temps of Upper 80s to upper 90s will prevail over the plains
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Wednesday will likely be a repeat performance of Tuesday, with
numerous to scattered thunderstorms, capable of producing heavy rain,
over all of the region. QPF guidance shows a better chance of
heavier precip over a good part of the region as compared to
Tuesday. Flash flooding threat may be exacerbated on Wednesday if
flash flood prone areas see heavy rain on Tuesday.

Thursday...

Scattered to likely showers are expected over the mountains with only
isolated to scattered storms over the plains. Temps will warm up a
bit with 90s to L100s over the plains.

Friday...

Similar temps to Thursday, but less pops regionwide.

Weekend...

Drier and hot, but not as hot as today or yesterday.

Looking a bit farther out...deterministic guidance hints at a
Canadian front trying to push into the region for next Tuesday-
ish. Both EC and GFS show this solution, but GFS is much more
amplified while EC has more of a glancing blow. Lets hope!
\/Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

KALS...

VFR next 24 hours. Winds light except in vicinity of outflow
winds from nearby -TSRA. Can't rule out a weak TSRA moving over
the taf site late afternoon/early evening.

KCOS...

Generally NE winds this afternoon, becoming gusty by late
afternoon as boundary pushes across. Some showers/isold -tsra by
late afternoon and better chance during the mid evening hours
(02-04 UTC). VFR and light winds after midnight (06 UTC).

KPUB...

VFR and light ENE winds this afternoon. By late afternoon,
boundary pushes across and winds gusty from the NE. Scattered
showers/isold -tsra this evening, ending prior to midnight (06
UTC). VFR thereafter.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086-089-
093-095>099.

&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1102 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-281715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1102 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Heat Advisory is in place through 9 PM this evening across
southeast Colorado, as dangerously hot temperatures can be
expected across the plains. Temperatures are expected to top out
between 105F and 110F across the lower Arkansas River Valley and
between 95F and 105F across the I-25 Corridor and the rest of the
plains this afternoon.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will again develop over the
higher terrain this afternoon, with storms then slowly pushing east
across the high mountain valleys and immediate adjacent plains
through the latter afternoon and evening hours. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to occur across the southeast plains
late this afternoon and into the evening hours. Storms will be
capable of producing heavy rainfall leading to the potential for
flash flooding, especially for the recent burn areas of the Willow
and Aspen Acres wildfires. Other storm risks today will be
frequent cloud to ground lightning and gusty outflow winds up to
45 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Afternoon and evening Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
become more numerous over all of the region on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Some of this rain on these days will be heavy, and
flash flood prone areas will be susceptible to flooding. Later in
the week and into next weekend, the showers and storms will
become scattered over the mountains and isolated over the plains.
Temperatures by next weekend will once again become hot.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

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