Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Pueblo, CO

685 
WGUS75 KPUB 230152
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
752 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

COC101-230345-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-260723T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pueblo CO-
752 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL PUEBLO
COUNTY...

At 752 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms produced heavy
rain over the Southern Aspen Acres Burn Scar. Up to 0.3 inches of
rain have fallen in the upper reaches of Muddy Creek. Additional
thunderstorms may produce rainfall rates of 0.2 to 0.4 inches in 1
hour. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.3 inches are possible in
the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly. Excessive rainfall over the burn scar will result in debris
flow. The debris flow can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and other
loose materials.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding in and around the Southern Aspen Acres Burn
         Scar.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around the
         Southern Aspen Acres Burn Scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Rye, San Isabel and Colorado City.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Muddy Creek and its tributaries, Spring Branch, Greenhorn Creek,
  and Saint Charles River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a life threatening situation. Heavy rainfall will cause
extensive and severe flash flooding of creeks...streams...and ditches
in the Southern Aspen Acres Burn Scar. Severe debris flows can also
be anticipated across roads. Roads and driveways may be washed away
in places. If you encounter flood waters...climb to safety.

&&

LAT...LON 3800 10505 3804 10493 3800 10484 3797 10486
      3793 10485 3791 10491 3793 10498 3792 10504
      3793 10505

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.2-0.4 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

774 
WGUS75 KPUB 230315
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
915 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

COC101-230345-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-260723T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pueblo CO-
915 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL PUEBLO
COUNTY...

At 915 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms which produced
heavy rain over the Southern Aspen Acres Burn Scar have moved east of
the burn scar. Up to 0.5 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding
is expected to continue until the water has a chance to recede.
Excessive rainfall over the burn scar will result in debris flow. The
debris flow can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and other loose
materials.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding in and around the Southern Aspen Acres Burn
         Scar.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around the
         Southern Aspen Acres Burn Scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Rye, San Isabel and Colorado City.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Muddy Creek and its tributaries, Spring Branch, Greenhorn Creek,
  and Saint Charles River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a life threatening situation. Heavy rainfall will cause
extensive and severe flash flooding of creeks...streams...and ditches
in the Southern Aspen Acres Burn Scar. Severe debris flows can also
be anticipated across roads. Roads and driveways may be washed away
in places. If you encounter flood waters...climb to safety.

&&

LAT...LON 3800 10505 3804 10493 3800 10484 3797 10486
      3793 10485 3791 10491 3793 10498 3792 10504
      3793 10505

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

930 
WGUS75 KPUB 230338
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
938 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

COC101-230348-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-260723T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pueblo CO-
938 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR WILL
EXPIRE AT 945 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3800 10505 3804 10493 3800 10484 3797 10486
      3793 10485 3791 10491 3793 10498 3792 10504
      3793 10505

$$

MG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
549 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash flood concerns for the susceptible flooding areas (Chalk
Bluffs and Aspen Acres/Willow Burn Scars) high today and tomorrow.

- Aspen Acres burn area could see gusty northeast winds this
evening which could initiate additional thunderstorms over the burn
area.

- Becoming very hot SAT-SUN-MON >>> 100 to 107F a good part of
  plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 116 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Note: AA = Aspen Acres burn area

Rest if Today...

Water vapor imagery pretty much tells the story for the short-term
as the monsoon plume is bulging eastward and a well defined
shortwave is spinning over the 4 corners region.

Main concern will be flash flooding, Primary area of concern will be
along the CONTDVD region. Last several day monsoon plume has caused
several incidents of flash flooding on the west slope and this plume
is now advection east. Some of this moisture will push as far east
as the plains, and will have to keep an eye on the Aspen Acres (AA)
burn scar for later this afternoon. Showers over the s mtns are not
expected to be as extensive as along the CONTDVD, but it will not
take much to get flooding over the AA fire.

For this evening...

Showers and storms will likely continue well into the evening and
overnight hours across the region. Best chance for storm during the
overnight time period will be over the mtns and valleys, but showers
and storms should linger over the plains this evening. Locally heavy
rain will be possible all areas during the evening hours. This
moisture is associated with the monsoon plume along with a weak
disturbance in the developing westerly mid level flow over the
region.

A boundary is fcst to move across the region during the early
evening hours and this will bring a period of gusty north to
northeast winds to the plains. especially along the I-25 corridor.
These gusty winds will likely impact the AA burn area during the mid
evening (8-9 pm) time frame. There is a possibility that this
outflow boundary could initiate thunderstorm over the AA fire area
during this time period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 116 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Tomorrow

Considerable showers and thunderstorms are likely tomorrow across
all of the region. Favorable forcing aloft associated with the
monsoon plume will allow for locally heavy rain showers over the
region. Guidance indicates that we will see a much better chance of
heavier showers over the AA fire, and a flash flood watch is in
effect for this burn area tomorrow. The activity should push out
onto the plains by late afternoon and into the evening hours.

Temperatures over the far eastern plains should be quite hot
tomorrow as temps will reach to around 104. Along the I-25 corridor,
higher clouds should move in relatively early which will temper the
temperatures a bit (U90s).

Friday...

Max temperatures should be a 2-3F cooler  than on Thursday. Plains
will likely be stable this day and expect most of the showers and
storms to remain in the mountains. Best overall showers will be over
the southern Sangres and San Juans. However we still could see some
locally heavy showers, and the wrong showers over the wrong area
could cause flash flooding over the burn scars.

SAT-SUN-MON....

HOT. Widespread 100+ readings over the plains with mid/upper 90s
over the remainder of the plains, San Luis valley will likely see
temps around 90F. The mid level heat dome aloft will be over the
region so winds will be light. Moisture will be "stuck" under this
high pressure aloft and there will be storms over the mtns, and if
they develop, they will not move much, so flash flooding will be a
concern over the high country.

Looking at the statistical guidance, it does show a SLOW cooling
trend through next week. My confidence in this happening is not too
high as this trend has been shown in the past and it has not
occurred. However, we can always hope for the best. \/Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 546 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

TSRA will continue into this evening for the TAF sites though
should be largely done by 02z. There could still be some
lingering showers and thunderstorms embedded within the monsoon
plume overnight which could affect any of the TAF sites, though
confidence is too low at this point for any -TSRA beyond 02z.
Winds will shift out of the northwest to north at both KCOS and
KPUB between 01 and 02z with gusts up to 25 to 30 kts through
the evening. Winds will become light then shift around from a
southerly direction at all three TAF sites on Thursday with
another round of showers and thunderstorms developing over the
mountains around noon and spreading into the terminals after
20z. Heavy rainfall, gusty outflow winds up to 40 kts, and VFR
cigs/vis will be the primary risks. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ059>061.
Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ079-080-086.

&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1100 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-231700-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1100 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and tonight across the region. Storms will form over
the Continental Divide, spreading to the rest of the higher
terrain by later this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers
will also be possible over the Pikes Peak Region and the mountain
valleys.

These showers and thunderstorms will have the capability of
producing flash flooding. Over the last few days, monsoon rains
have caused quite a bit of flash flooding along the west slope,
and these heavy monsoon showers will affect the central mountains
and San Juan region this afternoon and evening. Areas that are
particularly susceptible to flash flooding will be the Willow
fire and the Chalk Cliffs area.

Over the far eastern plains, one or two stronger thunderstorms
will be possible late this afternoon into the evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Showers and storms will be present each afternoon and evening
through Friday. Best coverage will be over the mountains, but more
widespread precipitation will cover the entire area on Thursday.
Flash flooding will be possible each day, mainly over burn scars and
other susceptible areas. One or two strong thunderstorms may also be
possible.

Hot weather will return to the region this weekend into early
next week. Temperatures from Saturday through Tuesday will range
from 100 to 107 over a good part of the southeastern plains. Over
the mountains, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible, with locally heavy rain possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

34/34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
421 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

COZ076-077-081-083-222245-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
421 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL FREMONT AND
SOUTHWESTERN TELLER COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM MDT...

At 421 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Guffey, or 39 miles southwest of Colorado Springs,
moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Fremont and southwestern Teller Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3871 10529 3851 10538 3854 10556 3869 10558
      3870 10533 3871 10533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 190DEG 12KT 3859 10548

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
447 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

COZ081-083-085-222315-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
447 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN FREMONT...SOUTHEASTERN
TELLER AND SOUTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM MDT...

At 446 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southwest of Fort Carson, or 16 miles south of Colorado
Springs, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of eastern Fremont,
southeastern Teller and southwestern El Paso Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3855 10481 3856 10498 3871 10504 3871 10472
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 187DEG 9KT 3860 10491

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
449 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

COZ081-082-222315-
Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
449 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN TELLER AND WEST CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM MDT...

At 448 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cripple Creek, or 18 miles west of Colorado Springs, moving north at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cripple Creek, Victor, and Pikes Peak.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 10506 3869 10522 3883 10528 3884 10501
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 180DEG 8KT 3874 10515

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
503 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

COZ085-222330-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
503 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 530 PM MDT...

At 503 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hanover, or 24 miles southeast of Colorado Springs, moving north at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central El
Paso County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3863 10433 3863 10450 3878 10455 3878 10429
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 185DEG 9KT 3867 10443

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
512 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

COZ081-085-222345-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
512 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 545 PM MDT...

At 512 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fort Carson, or 10 miles south of Colorado Springs, moving north at
20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southern Colorado Springs, Fountain, Manitou Springs, Stratmoor, Fort
Carson, Security, Security-Widefield, Peterson Space Force Base, and
Cimarron Hills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3866 10469 3868 10488 3886 10494 3886 10461
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 185DEG 17KT 3868 10480

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
552 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

COZ084-085-230030-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
552 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 630 PM MDT...

At 552 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Falcon, or 9 miles northeast of Colorado Springs, moving north at 5
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Colorado Springs, Falcon, Cimarron Hills, and Peterson Space Force
Base.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3882 10459 3884 10477 3886 10482 3902 10481
      3900 10446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 197DEG 6KT 3891 10467

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe