Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Pueblo, CO

135 
WGUS75 KPUB 162050
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
250 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

COC015-162215-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-260716T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chaffee CO-
250 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY...

At 250 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Alpine and St Elmo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or
creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 3872 10642 3873 10638 3875 10637 3874 10634
      3874 10630 3876 10627 3875 10624 3875 10618
      3873 10614 3866 10624 3864 10630 3859 10636
      3862 10637 3862 10638 3864 10638 3865 10643
      3868 10644 3870 10645 3871 10644 3871 10643

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Simcoe

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1248 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms will continue over the mountains on Friday.
Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will continue to be a concern over
burn scars.

- Monsoon plume shifts westward Saturday and Sunday with dry and hot
conditions across the plains spreading into the southeast  mountains.

- Another gradual uptick in thunderstorms expected next as the
  Monsoon plume transitions eastward and a cool front drops
  through the southeast plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Forecast remains on track today, with convection continuing over the
mountains into tonight. Greatest chances for heavy rainfall remains
over the Continental Divide, and flash flooding will be our primary
impact concern. Main areas to watch will be the Willow burn scar,
the Chalk Cliffs, and possibly Poncha Pass and surrounding areas.
The plains will remain dry, with temperatures similar to yesterday
in the 80s-90s.

High pressure begins slowly moving north tomorrow, meaning that the
monsoon moisture plume will start getting pushed west and a bit
south. Overall, not too dissimilar from today, though with fewer
showers over our eastern mountains. Meanwhile, the Continental
Divide will continue to receive afternoon showers and thunderstorms,
with the same problem areas at risk for flash flooding from pockets
of heavy rainfall. Temperatures will also be similar to today, with
80s over the valleys and low-mid 90s for the plains. Our eastern
areas will once again remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The moisture plume will continue shifting westward this weekend,
decreasing convective coverage over SE Colorado. Some daily showers
and thunderstorms will still be possible each day, but will mainly
be confined to the San Juans and parts of the central mountains,
with only isolated to scattered coverage. Temperatures will also
increase, with portions of the far eastern plains approaching triple-
digits by Sunday afternoon.

Upper high shifts eastward early next week, which should eventually
put southern CO under a better monsoon moisture fetch.
Models/ensembles look a little less enthused with thunderstorm
potential on Monday for eastern areas due to a delay in the arrival
of a cold front. With a later arrival on Tuesday, it still looks
like the mid to latter part of the week may finally moisten up
across southeast CO and hopefully bring some much needed rainfall.
Northwest flow aloft may also increase storm strengths if low level
moisture return and resultant CAPE is high enough in post frontal
upslope flow. Would like to see the southerly monsoon moisture fetch
shift eastward a bit more for greater confidence in more widespread
wetting rains, but overall, the upslope signal suggests all burn
scars in the southeast mountains (Aspen Acres and 24) may become
more vulnerable to flash flooding at some point next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24
hours. Winds will gust from the SE this afternoon, 20-25 knots or so
at all three terminals. Some showers and a few thunderstorms will
move through the San Luis Valley later this afternoon, and though
confidence in precip at the terminal is low, outflow winds will
still be possible. Have included a PROB30 to account for this, given
the isolated to scattered coverage of showers.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO/KT
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1143 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-171745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1143 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous afternoon thunderstorms will develop over the
mountains by early afternoon, and spread into the adjacent valleys
into this evening.  The main risk with thunderstorm will be locally
heavy rainfall, gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph, and lightning.
Flash flooding could occur on area burn scars, especially those
along the Continental Divide such as Willow if they are directly
impacted.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be
possible on Friday across the mountains, with locally heavy
rainfall, gusty outflow winds and lightning the primary risks.  Burn
scars along the Continental Divide will be vulnerable to flash
flooding once again should they be directly impacted by a storm.
Thunderstorm chances decrease for Saturday and Sunday across the
mountains with afternoon thunderstorms becoming more isolated in
coverage. Another uptick in thunderstorms will return for Monday
across the mountains, and Tuesday and Wednesday across the mountains
and southeast plains behind a cool front. This may increase the
potential for flash flooding on the southeast mountain burn scars
such as Aspen Acres and 24 by mid week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

GARBEROGLIO/GARBEROGLIO