Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
525 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to at times heavy rainfall continues across southeast
  Colorado through tonight, as high impact storm system lifts out
  across northeastern New Mexico overnight.

- Potential for severe storms across the far southeast plains
  tonight.

- Warmer and drier weather Friday and into the weekend.

- Occasional passing waves brings chances of precipitation
  for the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has a strong upper
low spinning across northwestern New Mexico, with a notable dry slot
wrapping around the system from Old Mexico into eastern New Mexico,
western Texas and far southeast Colorado at this time. H7 low and
surface reflection are being analyzed across the OK/Texas Panhandle,
with northerly gradient flow developing across southeast Colorado
at time. PWATs remain very high, especially across eastern Colorado
with readings of 1 to 1.4 inches across the plains at this time.
NWS DDC just posted 1.99 inches on their 18Z sounding, which is the
5th wettest sounding on record for DDC (out of database of 55,000
soundings taken)! Regional radars have no echoes across the far
southeast plains with said dry slot, with H7 northeast flow keeping
scattered showers across the eastern slopes into the I-25 Corridor
at this time. Radars are indicating new shower and thunderstorm
development across north central New Mexico at this time, associated
with deformation as the upper low continues east across northern
New Mexico.

For tonight, still expecting widespread showers across the eastern mtns
and plains, with strengthening H7 north to northeast flow, as main upper
low across north central New Mexico pivots into the Oklahoma Panhandle
overnight. With that said, latest high res models keep the H5 deformation
band further south and east across the southeast plains, where a few strong
to severe storms could develop late this evening into early Thursday
morning. Said deformation band continues to lift out across the southeast
plains early Thursday morning, with precipitation diminishing from
northwest to southeast into early Thursday afternoon. With the amount of
available moisture, heavy rain and flash flooding will continue to be a
concern, especially across the Aspen Acres burn area, the southeast mtns
and the southeast plains, which have seen 1 to 3 inches of precipitation
over the past 24 hours. Latest cams also keep the bulk of precipitation
along and south of the Highway 50 Corridor into tomorrow morning, as well.
Further north across the Pikes Peak region, totals have been less, but
with the amount of available moisture in place, will keep Flood Watches
in tact through tonight.

As for winds, still expecting to see gusty northerly winds of 20 to 40 mph
developing through the evening into the overnight hours, with the strongest
gradient flow across the far southeast plains. Winds diminish through the
day tomorrow, becoming light easterly upslope across the I-25 Corridor in
the afternoon. With that said, and only partial clearing, highs will remain
below seasonal levels tomorrow, but warmer than today, mainly in the 60s
across the plains, with 40s and 50s across the higher terrain and around
60 for the high mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

For Friday and into the weekend, warmer and drier air within more westerly
flow works back into the region, as upper level ridging builds back across the
Great Basin and into the Rockies. This leads to warming and drying trend
areawide through the weekend. With the drier air moving into the area, will
need to watch for possible freezing overnight temperatures, especially across
the high mountain valleys. By early next week, latest models indicate the
upper ridge flattening across the region, allowing for occasional disturbances
within the stronger flow in place across the Northern Tier, to bring occasional
chances for precipitation and slightly cooler temperatures into the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: MVFR conditions are expected for the start of
this TAF period through tomorrow morning, with conditions improving
to VFR by late morning to early afternoon for all three TAF sites.
Widespread rain showers will persist for all three sites, with rain
persisting longest for KCOS and KPUB. Drier conditions are expected
to make a return by late tomorrow morning. Along with that, thick
low level clouds will remain in place this evening and through
tonight, with ceilings hovering within MVFR heights. Clouds are also
expected to start lessening in coverage by late tomorrow morning. As
for winds, breezy conditions remain in place for KCOS and KPUB as
the storm system pushes across the eastern plains and keeps winds
elevated until early tomorrow afternoon. For KALS, winds remain
light through tomorrow morning, with an uptick in winds tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ067>071.
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for COZ072>089-093>099.

&&

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...SIMCOE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1116 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-011730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1116 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will continue across the
region into tonight. Heaviest rains will be along and south of
the Highway 50 corridor, along the southeast mountains and parts
of the southeast plains. Some areas could see 2 and 4 inches of
rainfall, with elevated concerns for flash flooding over the burn
scars and other vulnerable areas. Gusty northerly winds of 20 to
40 mph will also be possible tonight into early Thursday. Several
inches of snow can also be expected over the higher peaks of the
mountains generally above 11,000 feet. With the expected heavy
rainfall, people should stay weather aware and have multiple ways
to receive weather warnings, especially those in flood prone
areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Activity will push east on Thursday, though pockets of heavy
rainfall will still be possible through the first half of the day
along with wind gusts up to 45 mph. There is also a chance for
some embedded thunderstorm activity in the afternoon over the
southeast plains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

23/GARBEROGLIO