Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Phoenix, AZ

666 
WWUS55 KPSR 110127
SVSPSR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
627 PM MST Mon Aug 10 2026

AZC012-110145-
/O.CON.KPSR.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-260811T0145Z/
La Paz AZ-
627 PM MST Mon Aug 10 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM MST
FOR CENTRAL LA PAZ COUNTY...

At 627 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Brenda, or 34
miles southeast of Parker, moving northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Brenda.

This includes the following highways...
AZ Interstate 10 between mile markers 22 and 37.
US Highway 60 between mile markers 31 and 35.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3360 11386 3353 11397 3367 11417 3377 11401
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 129DEG 11KT 3367 11404 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

RW

929 
WWUS55 KPSR 110145
SVSPSR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
645 PM MST Mon Aug 10 2026

AZC012-110155-
/O.EXP.KPSR.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-260811T0145Z/
La Paz AZ-
645 PM MST Mon Aug 10 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL LA PAZ COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.  However, heavy
rain is still possible with this thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3360 11386 3353 11397 3367 11417 3377 11401
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 129DEG 11KT 3370 11409 

$$

RW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
159 PM MST Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect through this evening for Western
  Imperial County as well as along the Lower Colorado River
  Valley as heat indices are forecast to peak between 110 and 120
  degrees.

- Deeper moisture will provide favorable conditions for daily
  shower and thunderstorm activity to materialize across the area
  through the middle of the week, along with noticeably cooler
  temperatures.

- Thunderstorm chances will decrease noticeably by the end of the week
  into next weekend as drier air filters in.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...
High pressure remains positioned over the Four Corners region
continuing to bring easterly to southeasterly flow aloft over
Arizona. With easterly flow in place moisture will continue to be
advected into the region with model projecting PWATs this
afternoon/evening climbing upwards of 1.5" with the 18Z sounding
already measuring a PWAT of 1.45". Models are in good agreement in
another round of thunderstorms will development in the northeastern
AZ high terrain, and especially in southern AZ, late this
evening/tonight. With any thunderstorm development in these areas
outflows are very likely with the HREF showing up to a 70% chance of
winds above 35 mph in the higher terrain and southern AZ, with a 30-
50% chance of winds above 35 mph surviving into NW Pinal County and
Maricopa County. Similar to last night, these outflows will have the
potential of triggering storms in the lower deserts, however the
location of where exactly storms are likely to develop in the lower
deserts is where model agreement begins to fall apart. As mentioned
previously, development is still favored for tonight as the
atmosphere continues to see similar conditions to last night. Hi-res
models continue to show CIN eroding to below 100 J/kg and MLCAPE
climbing near to slightly above 1000 J/kg this evening. With these
conditions, strong downburst wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall
will continue be the main hazards across the lower deserts of south-
central AZ, to include portions of the Phoenix area. There will also
be a potential for areas of blowing dust to materialize as well in
the dust prone areas. Atmospheric conditions will not vary much on
Tuesday, especially in the eastern higher terrain, however,
depending on this evening's activity Tuesday could turn out to be
more of a down day for the lower deserts.

Otherwise, afternoon high temperatures today will continue to be
above normal, ranging between 105-110 degrees, resulting in
widespread Moderate HeatRisk. Out west the dew points will remain
quite high, in the mid 60s to mid 70s, resulting in heat indices
peaking between 110-120 degrees this afternoon. Due to this the
Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through this evening along
the Lower Colorado River Valley and the Imperial Valley. By Tuesday
temperatures "cool" slightly back near normal, and the HeatRisk
becoming widespread minor to localized Moderate, with Moderate
mostly across the western lower deserts.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/...
Model guidance continues to be consistent in indicating another more
active period materializing Wednesday into the first half of
Thursday. The flow by Wednesday is forecast to shift out of the
south as the subtropical high shifts into Texas and a upper-level
low meanders off the California coast. This southerly flow is likely
to bring additional moisture northward from Mexico, with projected
PWATs increasing to 1.7-2.0" and low-level mixing ratios increasing
to 12-13 g/kg. In addition, there will likely more favorable upper-
level forcing from the aforementioned upper-level low in the form of
divergence aloft as well as the potential of an easterly wave moving
into the region from Mexico as indicated by both the GFS and ECMWF.
The more favorable upper-level forcing is likely to enhance the
convective activity, with flash flooding becoming more of a threat
given the deeper moisture profiles that will be in place. The latest
NBM PoPs for Wednesday through the first half of Thursday remain
elevated, ranging between 40-60% across much of south-central and
southeast AZ.

Heading towards the end of the week and next weekend, the guidance
is in good agreement in showing the subtropical high relocating
towards the Gulf Coast Region while the aforementioned upper-
level low remains situated off the west coast. This pattern
configuration will cause the flow to shift more out of the
southwest, bringing in a drier airmass as PWATs drop under
1.2-1.3". As a result, an overall downtrend in thunderstorm
activity is expected, with afternoon activity limited to the
eastern third of AZ.

Temperatures during the middle to latter half of the week will run
slightly below normal as afternoon highs will top out in the low
100s across the south-central AZ lower deserts to the mid 100s
across the western deserts. In fact, with the potential for abundant
cloud cover as well as lingering rainfall activity, afternoon highs
on Thursday may struggle to reach the triple digits across the south-
central AZ lower deserts. Temperatures will gradually rebound Friday
and into next weekend but remain near seasonal levels with no
extreme heat in sight for at least the next seven days.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1800Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
The primary aviation concerns this evening will once again be the
potential for gusty outflow winds, blowing dust, and reduced vsby
due to TS at the metro terminals. Over the next several hours,
westerly winds around 10-11 kts are expected with gusts into the
teens to around 20 kts developing during the afternoon. Confidence
in the wind forecast decreases considerably this evening with many
discrepancies still existing from the arrival of potential outflow
boundaries. Thunderstorms are expected to again form over the high
terrain to the north and east of Phoenix and in southeast AZ. Both
complexes of storms will be capable of producing long-lived
outflows which will push towards the terminals by this evening.
The northeasterly outflow may briefly cause an easterly shift, but
the southerly outflow is likely to be the stronger of the two.
These outflows could carry some blowing dust, especially the
southerly outflow and then may be followed by TS development in
the Phoenix area mainly between 04Z-06Z tonight. Amendments will
likely be needed to the current TAF as conditions evolve.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather concerns are expected through the next
24 hours under periods of FEW-SCT mid to high cloud decks and
otherwise mostly clear skies. At KIPL, winds will primarily stay
southeasterly with a switch to westerly by this evening. There is
a low chance (10%) for an isolated strong TS within the vicinity
of KIPL this afternoon, which could cause an abrupt wind shift
(likely out of the southwest) and strong gusts. At KBLH, winds
will generally fluctuate between SSE and SSW. Overall, wind speeds
should generally remain AOB 12 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gradual cooling temperatures to near to slightly below normal
levels can be expected throughout the week. Elevated moisture
will maintain afternoon MinRHs between 20-30% each afternoon
along with good to excellent overnight recoveries. The chances for
shower and thunderstorm activity as well as wetting rainfall will
remain elevated through the middle of the week, especially across
the eastern districts. The chances for showers and thunderstorms
will decrease noticeably by the end of the week through next
weekend as drier air filters in. Outside of gusty and erratic
winds due to thunderstorms, winds will follow the familiar diurnal
trends, with typical afternoon upslope breeziness around 20 mph.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ530-532.

CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ563-566-
     567-569-570.

&&

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Lojero
AVIATION...Salerno
FIRE WEATHER...Ryan/Lojero

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
140 PM MST Mon Aug 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     Flash Flood      9 NW Miami              33.48N 111.00W
08/09/2026                   Gila               AZ   Other Federal

            ***DELAYED REPORT*** The Pinto Creek near
            Miami gage recorded a rapid rise of 6.7 ft,
            impacting nearby low water crossings
            upstream of the gage.

&&

INS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
142 PM MST Mon Aug 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1126 PM     Flash Flood      5 SW Ak-Chin Village    32.97N 112.14W
08/09/2026                   Pinal              AZ   Dept of Highways

            ***DELAYED REPORT*** Val Vista Rd low water
            crossing at Vekol Wash was closed due to
            flooding.

&&

INS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
432 PM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026

CAZ562-566-567-110000-
Imperial County West CA-Imperial County Southwest CA-
Imperial Valley CA-
432 PM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN IMPERIAL COUNTY
THROUGH 500 PM PDT...

At 431 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Plaster City, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Plaster City, Ocotillo, Dixieland, and Coyote Wells.

This includes the following highways...
CA Interstate 8 near mile marker 1, and between mile markers 3 and
24.
CA Route 98 between mile markers 1 and 15.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3293 11610 3293 11575 3264 11580 3263 11586
      3262 11610
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 186DEG 11KT 3279 11589

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
519 PM MST Mon Aug 10 2026

AZZ533-110045-
Central La Paz AZ-
519 PM MST Mon Aug 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LA PAZ COUNTY THROUGH
545 PM MST...

At 518 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brenda, or 35 miles southeast of Parker, moving northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Quartzsite and Brenda.

This includes the following highways...
AZ Interstate 10 between mile markers 22 and 37.
US Highway 60 between mile markers 31 and 36.
AZ Route 95 between mile markers 112 and 115.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3364 11390 3356 11404 3374 11426 3387 11403
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 140DEG 16KT 3366 11404

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
544 PM MST Mon Aug 10 2026

AZZ533-110115-
Central La Paz AZ-
544 PM MST Mon Aug 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LA PAZ COUNTY THROUGH
615 PM MST...

At 544 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brenda, or 35 miles southeast of Parker, moving northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Quartzsite and Brenda.

This includes the following highways...
AZ Interstate 10 between mile markers 22 and 37.
US Highway 60 between mile markers 31 and 36.
AZ Route 95 between mile markers 112 and 115.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3358 11386 3352 11399 3373 11426 3385 11404
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 137DEG 10KT 3366 11403

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RW