Alert archive / Arizona / Red Flag Warnings in 2026

Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Phoenix, AZ

June 25, 20265 counties in Arizona; Imperial County, Riverside County, California

NWS Phoenix, AZ issued this red flag warning at Jun 25, 2026, 1:07 AM MST for 5 counties in Arizona; Imperial County, Riverside County, California. It took effect at Jun 26, 2026, 11:00 AM MST. It was in force for 57 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jun 25, 2026, 1:07 AM MST (08:07 UTC)
In effect from
Jun 26, 2026, 11:00 AM MST
Expired
Jun 28, 2026, 8:00 PM MST
In force
57 hr
Issued by
NWS Phoenix, AZ

Counties Gila County, AZ, La Paz County, AZ, Maricopa County, AZ, Pinal County, AZ, Yuma County, AZ, Imperial County, CA, Riverside County, CA

The radar

The Yuma radar (KYUX), 149 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 258 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 00:00Z on 2026-06-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 91 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 00:00Z on 2026-06-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 166 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
91 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-103 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1720 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
166 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
246 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

416 
WWUS85 KPSR 250807
RFWPSR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
107 AM MST Thu Jun 25 2026

AZZ133-252015-
/O.UPG.KPSR.FW.A.0002.260626T1800Z-260629T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KPSR.FW.W.0003.260626T1800Z-260629T0300Z/
Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest Foothills-
107 AM MST Thu Jun 25 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR TONTO NATIONAL FOREST AND SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...

The National Weather Service in Phoenix has issued a Red Flag
Warning for strong winds, low relative humidity and very high 
fire danger, which is in effect from 11 AM Friday to 8 PM MST 
Sunday. The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect.

* AFFECTED AREA...Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest 
  Foothills.

* TIMING...Friday morning through Sunday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...Rapid spread and growth of any new or existing 
  fires. Fires will have the potential to exhibit extreme fire 
  behavior. Elevated potential for new fire starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please advise the appropriate officials and fire crews in the
field of this red flag warning.

&&

$$

AZZ131-CAZ231-252015-
/O.UPG.KPSR.FW.A.0002.260626T1800Z-260628T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KPSR.FW.W.0003.260626T1800Z-260628T0300Z/
Yuma/Martinez Lake and Vicinity/Lower Colorado River Valley AZ-
Lower Colorado River Valley CA-
107 AM MST Thu Jun 25 2026 /107 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MST /11 AM PDT/ FRIDAY
TO 8 PM MST /8 PM PDT/ SATURDAY FOR STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...

The National Weather Service in Phoenix has issued a Red Flag
Warning for strong winds, low relative humidity and very high 
fire danger, which is in effect from 11 AM MST /11 AM PDT/ Friday
to 8 PM MST /8 PM PDT/ Saturday. The Fire Weather Watch is no 
longer in effect.

* AFFECTED AREA...Yuma/Martinez Lake and Vicinity/Lower Colorado 
  River Valley AZ and Lower Colorado River Valley CA.

* TIMING...Friday morning through Saturday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 4 percent.

* IMPACTS...Rapid spread and growth of any new or existing 
  fires. Fires will have the potential to exhibit extreme fire 
  behavior. Elevated potential for new fire starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please advise the appropriate officials and fire crews in the
field of this red flag warning.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Phoenix is on the internet at

weather.gov/phoenix
8 follow-up statements
905 
WWUS85 KPSR 251930
RFWPSR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1230 PM MST Thu Jun 25 2026

AZZ133-261130-
/O.CON.KPSR.FW.W.0003.260626T1800Z-260629T0300Z/
Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest Foothills-
1230 PM MST Thu Jun 25 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM
MST SUNDAY FOR STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER FOR TONTO NATIONAL FOREST AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest 
  Foothills.

* TIMING...Friday morning through Sunday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...Rapid spread and growth of any new or existing 
  fires. Fires will have the potential to exhibit extreme fire 
  behavior. Elevated potential for new fire starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please advise the appropriate officials and fire crews in the
field of this red flag warning.

&&

$$

AZZ131-CAZ231-261130-
/O.CON.KPSR.FW.W.0003.260626T1800Z-260628T0300Z/
Yuma/Martinez Lake and Vicinity/Lower Colorado River Valley AZ-
Lower Colorado River Valley CA-
1230 PM MST Thu Jun 25 2026 /1230 PM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MST /11 AM PDT/
FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST /8 PM PDT/ SATURDAY FOR STRONG WINDS, LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Yuma/Martinez Lake and Vicinity/Lower Colorado 
  River Valley AZ and Lower Colorado River Valley CA.

* TIMING...Friday morning through Saturday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 5 percent.

* IMPACTS...Rapid spread and growth of any new or existing 
  fires. Fires will have the potential to exhibit extreme fire 
  behavior. Elevated potential for new fire starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please advise the appropriate officials and fire crews in the
field of this red flag warning.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Phoenix is on the internet at

weather.gov/phoenix
241 
WWUS85 KPSR 260712
RFWPSR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1212 AM MST Fri Jun 26 2026

AZZ133-280700-
/O.CON.KPSR.FW.W.0003.260626T1800Z-260629T0300Z/
Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest Foothills-
1212 AM MST Fri Jun 26 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR TONTO FOREST AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest 
  Foothills.

* TIMING...Friday morning through Sunday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...Rapid spread and growth of any new or existing 
  fires. Fires will have the potential to exhibit extreme fire 
  behavior. Elevated potential for new fire starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please advise the appropriate officials and fire crews in the
field of this red flag warning.

&&

$$

AZZ131-CAZ231-280300-
/O.CON.KPSR.FW.W.0003.260626T1800Z-260628T0300Z/
Yuma/Martinez Lake and Vicinity/Lower Colorado River Valley AZ-
Lower Colorado River Valley CA-
1212 AM MST Fri Jun 26 2026 /1212 AM PDT Fri Jun 26 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MST /11 AM PDT/
THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST /8 PM PDT/ SATURDAY FOR STRONG WINDS,
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Yuma/Martinez Lake and Vicinity/Lower Colorado 
  River Valley AZ and Lower Colorado River Valley CA.

* TIMING...Friday morning through Saturday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 5 percent.

* IMPACTS...Rapid spread and growth of any new or existing 
  fires. Fires will have the potential to exhibit extreme fire 
  behavior. Elevated potential for new fire starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please advise the appropriate officials and fire crews in the
field of this red flag warning.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Phoenix is on the internet at

weather.gov/phoenix
287 
WWUS85 KPSR 262032
RFWPSR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
132 PM MST Fri Jun 26 2026

AZZ133-271130-
/O.CON.KPSR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260629T0300Z/
Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest Foothills-
132 PM MST Fri Jun 26 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR
TONTO FOREST AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest 
  Foothills.

* TIMING...Friday morning through Sunday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...Rapid spread and growth of any new or existing 
  fires. Fires will have the potential to exhibit extreme fire 
  behavior. Elevated potential for new fire starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please advise the appropriate officials and fire crews in the
field of this red flag warning.

&&

$$

AZZ131-CAZ231-271130-
/O.CON.KPSR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260628T0300Z/
Yuma/Martinez Lake and Vicinity/Lower Colorado River Valley AZ-
Lower Colorado River Valley CA-
132 PM MST Fri Jun 26 2026 /132 PM PDT Fri Jun 26 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /8 PM PDT/
SATURDAY FOR STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER FOR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Yuma/Martinez Lake and Vicinity/Lower Colorado 
  River Valley AZ and Lower Colorado River Valley CA.

* TIMING...Friday morning through Saturday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 5 percent.

* IMPACTS...Rapid spread and growth of any new or existing 
  fires. Fires will have the potential to exhibit extreme fire 
  behavior. Elevated potential for new fire starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please advise the appropriate officials and fire crews in the
field of this red flag warning.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Phoenix is on the internet at

weather.gov/phoenix
399 
WWUS85 KPSR 270836
RFWPSR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
136 AM MST Sat Jun 27 2026

AZZ133-272315-
/O.CON.KPSR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260629T0300Z/
Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest Foothills-
136 AM MST Sat Jun 27 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND VERY GHIGH FIRE DANGER
FOR TONTO FOREST AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest 
  Foothills.

* TIMING...Friday morning through Sunday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...Rapid spread and growth of any new or existing 
  fires. Fires will have the potential to exhibit extreme fire 
  behavior. Elevated potential for new fire starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please advise the appropriate officials and fire crews in the
field of this red flag warning.

&&

$$

AZZ131-CAZ231-272315-
/O.CON.KPSR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260628T0300Z/
Yuma/Martinez Lake and Vicinity/Lower Colorado River Valley AZ-
Lower Colorado River Valley CA-
136 AM MST Sat Jun 27 2026 /136 AM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /8 PM PDT/
THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Yuma/Martinez Lake and Vicinity/Lower Colorado 
  River Valley AZ and Lower Colorado River Valley CA.

* TIMING...Friday morning through Saturday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...Rapid spread and growth of any new or existing 
  fires. Fires will have the potential to exhibit extreme fire 
  behavior. Elevated potential for new fire starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please advise the appropriate officials and fire crews in the
field of this red flag warning.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Phoenix is on the internet at

weather.gov/phoenix
569 
WWUS85 KPSR 272014
RFWPSR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
114 PM MST Sat Jun 27 2026

AZZ133-281130-
/O.CON.KPSR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260629T0300Z/
Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest Foothills-
114 PM MST Sat Jun 27 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR
TONTO FOREST AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest 
  Foothills.

* TIMING...Through Sunday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...Rapid spread and growth of any new or existing 
  fires. Fires will have the potential to exhibit extreme fire 
  behavior. Elevated potential for new fire starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please advise the appropriate officials and fire crews in the
field of this red flag warning.

&&

$$

AZZ131-CAZ231-280300-
/O.CON.KPSR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260628T0300Z/
Yuma/Martinez Lake and Vicinity/Lower Colorado River Valley AZ-
Lower Colorado River Valley CA-
114 PM MST Sat Jun 27 2026 /114 PM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /8 PM PDT/
THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Yuma/Martinez Lake and Vicinity/Lower Colorado 
  River Valley AZ and Lower Colorado River Valley CA.

* TIMING...Through this evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...Rapid spread and growth of any new or existing 
  fires. Fires will have the potential to exhibit extreme fire 
  behavior. Elevated potential for new fire starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please advise the appropriate officials and fire crews in the
field of this red flag warning.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Phoenix is on the internet at

weather.gov/phoenix
818 
WWUS85 KPSR 280305
RFWPSR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
805 PM MST Sat Jun 27 2026

AZZ131-CAZ231-280415-
/O.EXP.KPSR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260628T0300Z/
Yuma/Martinez Lake and Vicinity/Lower Colorado River Valley AZ-
Lower Colorado River Valley CA-
805 PM MST Sat Jun 27 2026 /805 PM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...

Winds have begun to subside and RHs have begun to increase,
limiting further critical fire weather conditions.

$$

AZZ133-281515-
/O.CON.KPSR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260629T0300Z/
Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest Foothills-
805 PM MST Sat Jun 27 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR
TONTO FOREST AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest 
  Foothills.

* TIMING...Through Sunday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...Rapid spread and growth of any new or existing 
  fires. Fires will have the potential to exhibit extreme fire 
  behavior. Elevated potential for new fire starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please advise the appropriate officials and fire crews in the
field of this red flag warning.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Phoenix is on the internet at

weather.gov/phoenix
938 
WWUS85 KPSR 280717
RFWPSR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1217 AM MST Sun Jun 28 2026

AZZ133-282200-
/O.CON.KPSR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260629T0300Z/
Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest Foothills-
1217 AM MST Sun Jun 28 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
FOR TONTO FOREST AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest 
  Foothills.

* TIMING...Through Sunday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 11 percent.

* IMPACTS...Rapid spread and growth of any new or existing 
  fires. Fires will have the potential to exhibit extreme fire 
  behavior. Elevated potential for new fire starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please advise the appropriate officials and fire crews in the
field of this red flag warning.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Phoenix is on the internet at

weather.gov/phoenix
597 
WWUS85 KPSR 281944
RFWPSR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1244 PM MST Sun Jun 28 2026

AZZ133-290300-
/O.CON.KPSR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260629T0300Z/
Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest Foothills-
1244 PM MST Sun Jun 28 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
FOR TONTO NATIONAL FOREST AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest 
  Foothills.

* TIMING...Through Sunday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 11 percent.

* IMPACTS...Rapid spread and growth of any new or existing 
  fires. Fires will have the potential to exhibit extreme fire 
  behavior. Elevated potential for new fire starts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please advise the appropriate officials and fire crews in the
field of this red flag warning.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Phoenix is on the internet at

weather.gov/phoenix

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Jun 24, 10:00 PM MST, 3 hours 7 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

  • Temperatures around five degrees above normal will result in localized major Heat Risk through Thursday with Extreme Heat warnings remaining in place.
  • Upper level moisture streaming into the region will continue through Thursday resulting in expansive cloud cover, virga, and a few isolated showers and thunderstorms.
  • Drier, cooler, and breezier conditions will move into the region late this week resulting in areas of very high fire danger.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 24, 10:00 PM MST, 3 hours 7 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1000 PM MST Wed Jun 24 2026

.UPDATE...06Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures around five degrees above normal will result in
localized major Heat Risk through Thursday with Extreme Heat
warnings remaining in place.

- Upper level moisture streaming into the region will continue
through Thursday resulting in expansive cloud cover, virga, and a
few isolated showers and thunderstorms.

- Drier, cooler, and breezier conditions will move into the region
late this week resulting in areas of very high fire danger.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
Early afternoon WV imagery depicts a sprawling anti-cyclone centered
over southern New Mexico with SW flow, subtle vorticity centers, and
enhanced midlevel moisture lifting through southern California and
Arizona. Steep 7-8 C/km lapse rates juxtaposed with saturated ascent
have yielded 100-200 J/kg MUCape over the region resulting in
expansive virga and isolated showers/storms. This activity should
continue to fester through this afternoon before shortwave forcing
lifts into northern Arizona this evening. Over the next 48 hours,
the subtropical high will continue to weaken while shifting south
into SW TX/northern Mexico allowing the local flow pattern to become
more westerly, gradually scouring away the midlevel moisture source
while simultaneously introducing modest height falls/cooling with a
strengthening jet core.

Objective analysis suggests the H5 anti-cyclone center near 596dm
with H7 temperatures around +15C encroaching into south-central
Arizona this afternoon. Despite these measures typically supporting
late June high temperatures easily in a 110F-115F range, the
abundant midlevel cloud cover and increased boundary layer moisture
with 8-9 g/kg mixing ratios have been detrimental to mixing depths
and full realization of the surface temperature potential. However,
the increased moisture profiles have forced low temperatures towards
the upper reaches of the guidance envelop restricting the amount of
overnight relief from the heat. Thus, the Extreme Heat warnings
continue through Thursday despite only isolated instances of major
HeatRisk centered in the Phoenix urban corridor. Otherwise, steep
midlevel lapse rates and lingering moisture could conceivably create
another round of virga/elevated showers tonight and Thursday
morning, however forecast data shows reduced ascent and more limited
saturation. Drier air will begin sweeping into the region throughout
the day, but not totally removed such that several HREF members
indicate isolated storms materializing over eastern Gila County in
the afternoon.

By Friday afternoon, large scale troughing will surge into the
western Conus with the trough base anomalously extended into
southern California resulting in seasonally unusual midlevel height
falls across the CWA. Enhanced westerly jet energy and strong
onshore flow will characterize the synoptic flow; a pattern more
common in early May vs. late June. Other than initiating a cooling
trend, this evolution will foster the inland translation of stronger
winds given deep mixing depths tapping a higher momentum airmass
aloft. Given the rarity of this pattern for late June, impacts may
be rather large and multi-faceted given the forecast winds through
the sfc-H7 layer. Initially across southeast California, a downslope
wind component and 40+kt H9-H8 winds will favor areas of blowing
dust and local advisory level wind speeds in the typical locations,
and combined with low relative humidity levels will yield the
potential for critical fire weather conditions where more dense fuel
beds exist along the lower Colorado River valley. Farther east into
Arizona, winds may not initially be quite as strong, however with
energy release components and burning index percentiles near their
maximum in this very anomalous weather setup, fire danger may become
very high. Fire Weather Watches continue for these areas with a high
likelihood of future upgrades to warnings.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
Forecast concerns regarding fire danger will continue through the
weekend as wind speeds increase further and much drier conditions
persist. The large Pacific trough will only gradually shift eastward
with strong negative height anomalies diving into the Great Basin
allowing maintenance of cyclonic flow and lower heights into the SW
Conus. Thus, persistent height falls from the incoming trough will
continue Saturday while a strong pressure gradient becomes
established. Guidance shows unseasonably strong gradient winds
lasting through at least Saturday, and potentially into Sunday with
afternoon gusts of 20-30 mph across the entire area, and locally
higher gusts of 30-50 mph. Gradual drying of the boundary layer will
also lower daytime humidities to between 5-15%. The combination of
the low humidities and the strong gusty winds are likely to make for
dangerous fire weather conditions. A Fire Weather Watch remains in
effect for the Lower Colorado River Valley through Saturday evening
and extended through Sunday evening across eastern Arizona high
terrain where winds will be slower to relax while fuels remains very
receptive.

Enhanced downsloping winds with areas of blowing dust appear likely
again Saturday when the combination of height falls and onshore flow
are optimal for mountain rotors and hydraulic jumps inland. In
addition to the fire weather concerns along the lower Colorado River
valley, a myriad of other wind/dust advisory products may be
necessary given the synoptic setup. Otherwise, although H5 heights
quickly decrease to below 588dm, temperatures will be somewhat
slower to respond over the weekend, though eventually falling 4F-8F
below normal by Sunday. The latest NBM/WPC forecast highs shows
readings only in a 98F-104F range across lower elevation population
centers of the forecast area, then only warming a few degrees during
the first half of next week as H5 heights remain sequestered in a
585-588dm range.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0500Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No major aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period.
Winds will follow diurnal trends will gusts during Thursday
afternoon upwards of around 20 kt. THough it appears unlikely,
some lingering virga cannot be ruled out around the airspace, but
any radar echoes that are observed should not create any impacts
at the terminals. SCT to sometimes BKN mid-level clouds will stick
around through Thursday evening.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
The main aviation concern will be breezy to windy conditions at
each terminal Thursday afternoon and evening. Until then W'rly and
S'rly winds should be favored at KIPL and KBLH respectively. Gusts
25-30 kt will then become common later in the period, with
stronger gusts upwards 35 kt possible at KIPL. Some virga showers
will may observed Thursday morning, mainly near KBLH, but should
not result in any operational impacts. Other than a FEW mid-
level clouds, skies should be mostly clear during the next 24
hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Locally elevated fire weather conditions due to low humidity and
afternoon upslope/upvalley breeziness will continue through
Thursday. Temperatures will be several degrees above normal while
MinRHs values around 15% decrease into the single digits across the
western districts starting Thursday. Winds will generally remain
terrain driven with upslope/upvalley gusts during the latter half of
the afternoon into the early evening peaking around 25 mph Thursday.
Areas of critical fire weather conditions are likely Friday through
weekend as gusty southwest winds increase across the region combined
with humidity levels settling in a 10-15% range. A Fire Weather
Watch continues for the Lower Colorado River Valley Friday-Saturday,
and had been extended Friday through Sunday for the Tonto
NF/Southern Gila County districts given the rarity of this weather
scenario for late June.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ530-532-533-
     537-540-542>544-546-548-550-551.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Saturday evening
     for AZZ131.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening
     for AZZ133.

CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ562-566-567-
     569.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Saturday evening
     for CAZ231.

&&

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...Kuhlman/18
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...18/Kuhlman

The office that day

Everything else NWS Phoenix, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 25, 12:35 PM MSTWind AdvisoryPSRLa Paz3 days

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in Arizona, 2026Red Flag Warnings in California, 2026Every red flag warning in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.