Freeze Warning 2, NWS Phoenix, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1042 AM MST Thu Jan 8 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 18z Aviation Discussion...

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will move through the region today brining shower
  and isolated storm chances to parts of the region along with
  breezy to locally windy conditions.

- Temperatures will remain below normal through Saturday, with
  gradual warming thereafter.

- Freezing temperatures are expected in rural and low-lying areas
  both Friday and Saturday morning and Freeze Watches have been
  issued.

- Dry weather can be expected region wide from the weekend into at
  least the middle part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
Upper level water vapor satellite imagery and objective analysis
show the low that brought rain chances to the region yesterday has
advected into SE NM and is making its way into the TX panhandle
early this morning. Some windy conditions are present in the far
SW corner of Imperial County, in the wake of yesterday's low. Wind
gusts up to 48 mph have already been observed this morning and
gusts up to 50 mph are possible, there for a Wind Advisory is in
effect through 2pm PST this afternoon. Radar shows some lingering
light rain showers, sprinkles, and drizzle remain over south-
central AZ, with most of the activity in the higher terrain areas
north and east of Phoenix. SPC mesoanalysis reveal that these
showers are able to hang around thanks to a shortwave trough that
is moving through early this morning. Rainfall totals with this
activity will be light, with most locations seeing rainfall totals
of only a few hundredths. Clouds have cleared out across western
portions of the CWA, and given the clear skies and abundance of
low-level moisture some areas of fog have formed early this
morning. Two main areas are currently present on the nighttime
microphysics satellite imagery, and they are in the Yuma area and
SE corner of Imperial County and across southern La Paz and
northern Yuma Counties. This fog could lead to visibilities less
than a mile, so if be careful if you encounter any fog on your
morning commutes. Fog in the Yuma area has already dropped
visibilities to around a half mile, and if visibility drops any
further a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed for this area.

The main trough, that will be moving through later today, is
currently situated in north-central CA. This trough will quickly
move SE through the day today and arrive in our CWA this afternoon.
This trough will bring a cold front through our region. The cold
front will arrive in south-central AZ during the afternoon, this
timing, in combination with the forcing from the front and the
residual moisture from yesterday's system, is perfect to produce
some stronger storms. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are
expected along and ahead of this front, developing early this
afternoon. The cold front will quickly push southeastward ending
chances in south-central AZ, including the Phoenix Metro, by the
early evening. Lingering rain chances will exist in the higher
terrain east of Phoenix through the evening. As mentioned
previously, some storms could be strong with wind gust of 30-40 mph,
and small hail or graupel possible. MUCAPE values look to be in the
500-100 J/kg range. This instability along with effective bulk sheer
values around 20-30 kt are enough to support some strong storms this
afternoon. The HREF gives a 30-50% chance of seeing wind gusts
greater than 35 mph as the front moves through. Also, with this
system coming from the NW it will be a colder system, with snow
levels falling to around 5,000 ft, resulting in accumulating
snowfall (dusting up to 1-2") above 5,000-6,000 feet. Additionally,
with the marginally unstable conditions and lowering freezing
levels, some graupel will be possible.

Additionally this cold front will bring breezy to locally windy
conditions to the region, with these conditions being behind the
front. The highest winds are expected in SE CA and along the Lower
CO River Valley, where gusts of 25-35 mph are possible. Some areas
may see gusts approach the 40 mph, or Wind Advisory, mark. The areas
most likely to see this are Joshua Tree National Park, ridge tops in
SE CA, and the Lower CO River Valley. So, a Wind Advisory may be
needed for these areas. However, the max winds are expected Thursday
night into Friday, which is not ideal timing to be able to mix down
the stronger winds. We may also need to watch for some fog
development tomorrow morning as well due to the quick clearing
behind the front. However, residual gustiness behind the front
should be able to keep any fog from developing. But, some isolated
areas of fog may be able to develop in sheltered areas.

With this secondary system moving through today, temperatures will
continue to be near to below normal. Out west, where mostly clear
skies and no rain chances are, afternoon high temperatures will be
near to slightly below normal and in the mid to upper 60s. Where
cloud cover and rain and storm chances exit today, across south-
central AZ, afternoon high temperatures will be around 5-8 degrees
below normal. With afternoon highs forecasted to be in the upper 50s
to around 60 degrees across the lower deserts of south-central AZ
and in the upper 40s to low 50s across the higher terrain.

The back side of the trough, and associated lower heights, will
linger over our region on Friday. Being on the backside of the
trough will result in strong subsidence and an abundance of dry air
over our region. Ensembles show PWATs dropping to 0.1-0.3" on
Friday. On Friday we will still be under the influence of some lower
heights aloft, with H5 heights in the 558-567 dm range, the wide
range is due to the trough, and associated tight pressure gradient,
exiting our region through the day. As a result, high temperatures
on Friday will be below normal, with highs in the upper 50s and low
60s across the lower deserts and in the upper 40s to low 50s across
the higher terrain. Additionally on Friday morning, the morning low
temperatures will also be below normal. With the trough quickly
exiting the region, the clouds associated with the trough will also
quickly exit our region. This will result in clear skies overnight
and allow us to maximize radiational cooling. So, frost/freeze
impacts may be an issue for rural and low lying locations. Friday,
there may be some residual elevated winds that could keep more
locations from reaching that freezing mark. Low temperatures on
Friday are currently forecasted to dip into the low to mid 30s
across rural lower desert locations, mid 30s to low 40s across more
rural lower desert communities, and in the upper 20s to low 30s
across higher terrain areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
Saturday morning will be another day of cold temperatures. Winds
will be light to calm and paired with clear skies will result in the
coldest morning of the winter season so far. Rural and low lying
areas will see temperatures near or below the freezing mark. Due to
this a Freeze Watch is in effect for portions of the CWA Saturday
morning.

Heading into the rest of the weekend, ensembles continue to be in
pretty good agreement on the overall synoptic pattern through the
middle of next week. A blocking pattern will develop this weekend
with high pressure returning to Western CONUS. The center of this
high will initially be off the coast of central CA, and will
eventually migrate over northern CA during the beginning of next
week. This blocking pattern will continue through at least the
beginning of next week, with the high pressure strengthening through
the first half of next week. H5 heights will be in the 576-582 dm
range Sunday-Wednesday. With the high pressure strengthening through
the middle of next week, temperatures will gradually warm as a
result. On Sunday and Monday afternoon high temperatures are
forecasted to be in the upper 60s to low 70s across the lower
deserts and in the upper 50s to low 60s across the higher terrain.
Then on Tuesday, afternoon high temperatures will warm to the low to
mid 70s across the lower deserts and in the low to mid 60s across
the higher terrain. Temperatures will warm even more on Wednesday,
with afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s across the
lower deserts and in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees across the
higher terrain. Morning low temperatures will also warm, going from
the upper 30s to low 40s (low to mid 30s) across the lower deserts
(higher terrain) on Sunday to the mid to upper 40s (upper 30s to low
40s) across the lower deserts (higher terrain) on Wednesday.
Additionally, with high pressure building back into the region, dry
conditions dry and tranquil weather conditions return this weekend
and continue through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1740Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Continued low CIGs as well as thunderstorm activity and gusty
winds will be the main aviation weather issues through late this
afternoon. Continued SCT-BKN CIGs as low 3 kft will remain into
this afternoon with the threat then switching to the potential for
shower and thunderstorm activity between the 20z to 00z timeframe
with a 30-50% chance of gusts exceeding 30 kts and temporary
reduction in visibilities. The bulk of the activity will move
south and east of the terminals after 00z with dry conditions and
skies rapidly clearing with just a FEW cumulus aoa 6 kft leftover
through this evening. Wind directions will generally be out of the
west through late this evening before shifting out of the east
during the overnight period, with the exception of KPHX, where
directions may become highly variable.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
The main aviation weather concern throughout the TAF period will
be the potential for strong winds out of the northwest to north
through Friday. A cold front moving through the area by early this
afternoon will switch the winds of the northwest with speeds
picking up, with gusts upwards of 25 kts at KIPL and near 30 kts
at KBLH. Winds at KIPL will diminish to aob 10 kts by early this
evening but remain elevated at KBLH, with a high likelihood of
gusts near to potentially exceeding 35 kts during the overnight
hours tonight through early Friday evening. Skies will remain
mostly clear throughout the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moisture levels will remain elevated today across the central and
eastern districts with heightened wetting rainfall chances
as a cold front moves through the region. This cold front will
have isolated to scattered showers and some isolated thunderstorms
possible. Much drier conditions will return on Friday and
continue into next week. MinRHs today will be in the 50-80% range
across the central and eastern districts, with excellent overnight
recovery. In the western districts, minRHs today will be in the
20-40% range, with fair overnight recovery. Tomorrow, minRH will
fall into a 15-40% range, with good overnight recovery, region
wide and will continue through the first half of next week. Strong
northerly wind gusts in excess of 30 mph will likely surge into
the lower Colorado River valley this afternoon through Friday
morning yielding an elevated fire danger. Additionally, wind gusts
in excess of 30 mph are also anticipated across SE CA, mainly
across ridgetops. Elsewhere, gusts should be somewhat weaker
(15-25 mph) with lesser impacts before returning to more seasonal
levels over the weekend.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for AZZ534-
     552-556-560-562.

     Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
     AZZ533-534-551>554-556-560>562.

CA...Wind Advisory until 2 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ562.

&&

SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM...Berislavich
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich