Flash Flood Warning 49, NWS Phoenix, AZ

614 
WGUS75 KPSR 300440
FFSPSR

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
940 PM MST Sat Aug 29 2026

AZC007-300630-
/O.CON.KPSR.FF.W.0049.000000T0000Z-260830T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila AZ-
940 PM MST Sat Aug 29 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR GILA COUNTY...

At 940 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are
possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban
         areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Inspiration and Claypool.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3372 11073 3372 11064 3345 11066 3340 11095
      3356 11100 3366 11088 3369 11083 3365 11078

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
500 PM MST Sat Aug 29 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect through early this
  evening as afternoon high temperatures approach the 110 degree
  mark across the lower deserts.

- Showers and thunderstorms, some potentially strong to severe,
  are expected from later this afternoon into tonight. Additional
  rounds of showers and storms are also possible Sunday and
  Monday.

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for south-central Arizona from late
  this afternoon through tonight as heavy rainfall, producing
  localized amounts in excess of 1-2 inches leading to flash
  flooding, will be possible.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected starting
  Sunday and lasting into the first half of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Latest water vapor satellite imagery as well as objective analysis
depict the subtropical high displaced east of the region,
centered across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, as a broad
upper trough is encompassing much of the west coast. This overall
pattern configuration is resulting in a southerly wind flow,
which is aiding in moisture advection across much of the region.
The latest SPC Mesoanalysis shows PWATs in excess of 1"+ across
much of Arizona with values in excess of 1.5" covering much of the
lower deserts of south-central and southwest Arizona, allowing
low-level mixing ratios to reach 10+ g/kg.

The increased moisture levels and MUCAPE values of around 1000
J/kg combined with some increased upper-level forcing for ascent
from the aforementioned west coast trough will support a
favorable environment for widespread storm activity heading into
this afternoon and tonight across much of south-central AZ with
much more isolated activity (10-20% chance) near the Imperial
Valley and portions of La Paz County. Latest HREF guidance is in
decent agreement that activity this afternoon will develop across
the AZ High County as well as across southeast AZ, with the
potential for multiple outflows to materialize. Latest forecast
soundings for late afternoon/early evening hours show a nearly
uncapped atmosphere and thus it will not take much low-level
forcing to spark storms across the lower deserts with a singular
outflow likely sufficient to cause convective initiation. With
DCAPE values expected to peak at around 1500-1800 J/KG, any
thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong to severe
downburst wind gusts and thus, generate strong outflows. Latest
HREF neighboring probabilities show a 50-70% chance of winds
exceeding 35 mph with around a 10% chance of winds reaching severe
levels (i.e. greater than 58 mph) across much of south-central
AZ. With the potential for a strong outflow to materialize from a
storm complex that is likely to develop across southeast AZ,
significant blowing dust will be a possibility as well across
Pinal County into at least southern portions of the Phoenix Metro
Area. Given this potential, in coordination with WFO Tucson, a
Blowing Dust Advisory has been issued between 4 PM and 9 PM MST
for these areas. In addition to the strong winds and blowing dust
potential, heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding will also be a
concern as there is a potential for training of storms,
especially across the higher terrain areas. Given this potential
for flash flooding, a Flood Watch is in effect from late this
afternoon through tonight across much of south-central AZ.

Heading into Sunday, conditions will remain favorable for additional
storms affecting much of south-central AZ once again as an upper-
level jet streak moving through the Great Basin will increase the
upper-level divergence and thus the upper-level forcing for ascent.
The main question and uncertainty for how active Sunday turns out to
be is the degree of recovery from the convective activity expected
later today. However, if the atmosphere is able to recover enough,
then another very active day is likely as MUCAPE values are
forecast to exceed 1000 J/KG with scattered to numerous
thunderstorms capable of producing strong wind gusts, areas of
blowing dust, and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding all on
the table once again.

With 500 mb height fields still hovering around 594-596dam today,
another day with highs near to just above 110 degrees can be
expected across much of the lower desert communities, resulting
in the continuation of Major HeatRisk. Therefore, the Extreme Heat
Warning remains in effect through 8 PM MST. The further lowering
of the upper-level height fields as the ridge shifts further east
into the southern Plains on Sunday will cause afternoon high
temperatures to cool 3-6 degrees, with readings ranging in the
low to mid 100s across the south-central AZ lower deserts and mid
to upper 100s across the western deserts. This will be enough to
cause HeatRisk levels to drop into the moderate category and thus
put an end to the prolonged extreme heat episode that has been in
place for more than a week.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Model uncertainty remains quite high for much of next week,
especially on Monday as at least the eastern half of Arizona
should retain good moisture, while an upper level low swings
through Nevada during the first part of the day. We are still
unsure how much instability will be present and if the low will
move to the north too quickly, but guidance is still favoring
30-60% PoPs from Phoenix and areas to the east of Phoenix for
much of Monday. Monday is likely to be very conditional on any
strong to severe storm threat due to the question of instability,
but we are expecting better wind shear on Monday. The passing
trough to our northwest should also begin to sweep drier air
through a good portion of our area on Monday, but this may only
impact western areas during the first part of the day leaving
enough moisture from Maricopa County eastward. This drying and
the eventual loss of upper level support is likely to mostly end
rain chances on Tuesday before returning by next Wednesday or
Thursday. Guidance suggests the tropics across the eastern Pacific
will remain very active next week likely leading to more moisture
getting advected into the Desert Southwest during the latter half
of next week. Forecast temperatures are shown returning into or
even a few degrees below the normal range early next week before
rising midweek as conditions temporarily dry out. The subtropical
ridge is also expected to nudge back into our region from the east
helping to boost temperatures back to or a few degrees above
normal at some point late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0000Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

The main aviation concern will be two periods of thunderstorms,
gusty outflows,and blowing dust. One this evening and another one
again tomorrow evening. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms
have popped up within the Phoenix Metro this afternoon. Some more
isolated showers and storms could continue to pop-up, however,
better chances for activity arrive after 02Z this evening. We are
anticipating a south/southeasterly outflow from the activity down
towards Tucson, most likely to arrive around 03-05Z. This will
help initiate additional storms. This outflow would also bring
BLDU/HZ and reduced visibility. It is still unsure how strong this
outflow and how dense the dust would be. All shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected to be NE of the terminals by 06Z
this evening. Winds will then return to their diurnal trends with
southeasterly winds overnight and west/southwesterly winds
tomorrow afternoon. Another period of VCTS/TSRA is expected
tomorrow night. Best timing right now looks to be after 02Z.
Mostly SCT mid/high cloud decks will be common through the
period, with the lowest CIGs forecasted at 10kft during
thunderstorm activity.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

At KIPL, current southwesterly winds will go southeasterly early
tomorrow morning with wind speeds aob 10 kt. At KBLH, winds will
fluctuate between southwesterly and southerly through the TAF
period. Wind speeds will be elevated (10-15 kt) the whole period
with some gusts of 20-25kt during the afternoons and early
evenings. FEW-SCT mid and high clouds will be common.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A pattern shift this weekend will lead to increasing moisture and
very good chances for showers and thunderstorms across the eastern
districts. Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and localized flooding
will all be possible across south-central Arizona beginning late
this afternoon. The western districts will generally stay dry.
Expect MinRHs of 15-20% today areawide before rising to 25-35%
across the eastern districts starting Sunday. Temperatures are
also forecast to drop to near normal readings starting Sunday.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ530>555-
     559-560.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM MST this evening for AZZ539-550-
     551-553-554-559.

     Flood Watch through late tonight for AZZ534-537-538-540>563.

CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ562-
     565>567-569-570.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lojero
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Berislavich
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
431 PM MST Sat Aug 29 2026

AZZ563-300015-
Southeast Gila County AZ-
431 PM MST Sat Aug 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT GILA COUNTY THROUGH 515 PM
MST...

At 431 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hilltop, or 26 miles northeast of Globe, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sawmill and Hilltop.

This includes US Highway 60 between mile markers 283 and 298.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3357 11042 3362 11057 3382 11051 3383 11044
      3383 11033 3375 11023
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 207DEG 11KT 3367 11045

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
554 PM MST Sat Aug 29 2026

AZZ560-563-300130-
Southeast Gila County AZ-San Carlos AZ-
554 PM MST Sat Aug 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT GILA COUNTY THROUGH 630 PM
MST...

At 554 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of San Carlos, or 23 miles east of Globe, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sawmill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3346 11015 3345 11018 3342 11035 3340 11035
      3340 11037 3339 11043 3342 11049 3363 11040
      3354 11010
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 207DEG 11KT 3345 11036

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
706 PM MST Sat Aug 29 2026

AZZ558-560-561-300230-
San Carlos AZ-Dripping Springs AZ-Pinal/Superstition Mountains AZ-
706 PM MST Sat Aug 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT GILA AND PINAL COUNTIES THROUGH
730 PM MST...

At 706 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Christmas, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hayden and Christmas.

This includes AZ Route 77 near mile marker 143, and between mile
markers 146 and 165.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3314 11059 3315 11063 3308 11070 3307 11073
      3304 11072 3300 11077 3301 11080 3311 11085
      3330 11076 3319 11050
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 207DEG 11KT 3308 11075

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
743 PM MST Sat Aug 29 2026

AZZ556-558-562-563-300315-
Southeast Gila County AZ-Tonto Basin AZ-Globe/Miami AZ-
Pinal/Superstition Mountains AZ-
743 PM MST Sat Aug 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT GILA...MARICOPA AND PINAL
COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM MST...

At 743 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Miami, or 11 miles northwest of Globe, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Inspiration.

This includes the following highways...
US Highway 60 between mile markers 259 and 266.
AZ Route 188 between mile markers 216 and 230.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3352 11061 3338 11093 3346 11105 3365 11090
      3368 11086 3368 11083 3366 11080 3366 11077
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 226DEG 14KT 3348 11091

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
813 PM MST Sat Aug 29 2026

AZZ556-558-560-562-563-300345-
Southeast Gila County AZ-Tonto Basin AZ-San Carlos AZ-Globe/Miami AZ-
Pinal/Superstition Mountains AZ-
813 PM MST Sat Aug 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT GILA COUNTY THROUGH 845 PM
MST...

At 812 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Central Heights-Midland City, or 9 miles north of
Globe, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of Gila County.

This includes the following highways...
US Highway 60 between mile markers 257 and 279.
AZ Route 188 between mile markers 217 and 230.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3342 11094 3356 11098 3366 11079 3366 11078
      3368 11077 3376 11061 3347 11049
TIME...MOT...LOC 0312Z 255DEG 11KT 3352 11079

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RW