Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
157 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expecting mainly dry conditions Wednesday and Thursday with
  only slight chances of convection with much more widespread
  storms Saturday and Sunday, especially on Saturday as much
  cooler conditions move in over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

Upper low continued to drop south into central California and
Nevada. A weak upper wave has pushed north today through eastern
Idaho and had some widespread stratiform rain this morning in
many areas with isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected
later this afternoon and early evening. Thunderstorm and shower
coverage will be much less as moisture sets up closer to the
closed low in California Wednesday and Thursday but at least
isolated convection is possible. Expect coverage to become much
more widespread Friday and Saturday as closed low opens up and
upper trof moves through Idaho with surface front. Saturday
looks to be the wettest day in the forecast period. After the
rain cooled conditions today expect much warmer conditions
Wednesday with high temperatures back into the 80s low
elevations and 70s mountains continuing into Thursday and
Friday. By Saturday highs down to the 50s to lower 60s mountains
and 60s valleys with rain expected. A warming trend will return
early next week Monday into Tuesday with above normal
temperatures once again. Will have breezy southerly to southeast
winds in the southern mountains Wednesday with 15 to 25 mph and
gusts up to 35 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Tue May 26 2026

Showers have been around all morning, and the overcast skies
have prevented a trigger for the TSRA in most places. However,
this cover is expected to thin and TSRA are expected at PROB30
or better during the afternoon for the five airdromes. Wind
appears stronger than yesterday, with KDIJ falling into the
marginal severe forecast area this Day 1 from SPC, so it has the
strongest expected outflow. Other than the windshear and
lightning, impacts should not affect VSBY or CIG significantly.
TSRA should end by 27/02Z all locations, with SHRA extending
through at least 27/06Z. Skies should partially clear after
27/08Z leaving little chance for precipitation.  The risk of severe
strength TSRA is over on Wed, and TSRA risk is generally lower
Wed afternoon as well.

Wind is a little more difficult to forecast, outside of the
variable with G35KT at the 4 western airports, while KDIJ has
the potential for G45KT. Outside of the SHRA/TSRA causing havoc
with wind direction, wind is expected to stay elevated and
southeast to south for KSUN after only a short time in the
middle of the night of northwest. An approaching trough that
will trigger the TSRA/SHRA for Wed will bring with it moderate
to strong southeast to south wind, affecting the airports from
west to east as it progresses through.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 AM MDT Tue May 26 2026

Expect a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms today with isolated
to scattered coverage. Brief heavy downpours are possible within
the main rain core but fire starts from lighting are possible
on the outskirts of the thunderstorms. Gusty, erratic outflow
winds are once again likely today. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will remain possible through the rest of the week,
but storms should return to the dry variety.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...GK
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
249 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

IDZ053-064>066-262115-
Centennial Mountains/Island Park ID-Big Hole Mountains ID-
Upper Snake River Plain ID-Teton Valley ID-
249 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT TETON...SOUTHEASTERN FREMONT...
NORTHEASTERN BONNEVILLE AND EASTERN MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM
MDT...

At 248 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Tetonia, or near Driggs, moving northwest at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts in excess of 45 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Driggs, Felt, Tetonia, Drummond, Tetonia Research Station, and Green
Canyon Hot Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4362 11141 4396 11164 4412 11108 4389 11105
      4372 11104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 166DEG 26KT 4379 11117

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

AMM

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