Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1210 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms with stronger gusts over 60
  mph likely through this evening

- Outside of showers and thunderstorms, gusts to 55 mph are
  expected

- Much colder weather is coming, especially over the weekend and
  early next week with widespread frost/freeze conditions

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1031 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

An active weather day is under way. As low pressure
approaches from the west, we are seeing increasing winds already and
will continue into this evening even behind the front. Outside of
storms, we are expecting gusts in some cases up to 55 mph. With
thunderstorms gusts in excess of 60 mph are likely with gusts over
65 mph possible. Storms should clear by late evening along with
stronger wind subsiding. Otherwise, we remain dry until the weekend.
Today is the last widespread WELL ABOVE AVERAGE temperature day we
will see for a bit. Ahead of the front, especially where downslope
is occurring, we are still looking at potentially hitting 90
degrees. We drop to right around AVERAGE for this part of May,
before dropping BELOW AVERAGE over the weekend and early next week.
Sunday still looks like the coldest day, especially if we can get a
deeper low in place, highs are in the 40s and 50s areawide.
Overnight lows and more frost/freeze issues are expected to return.
We may see some pockets of frost and light freeze until Saturday
morning. Beyond that, several morning of widespread frost and freeze
conditions are likely. Monday and Tuesday mornings will be the
coldest based on the latest trends in the Blend of Models. We are
looking at widespread 20s for overnight lows across portions of the
Snake Plain and Magic Valley, with the more populated cities barely
hitting freezing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

Winds will be the biggest issue over the next few hours across
eastern Idaho as a potent trough moves north of the region.
Gusts around 30 kts are likely. Additionally, this feature
combined with afternoon heating, will support scattered
thunderstorm development over the next few hours. Given the
synoptic setup, these storms are not likely to produce
precipitation but will likely produce gusty outflow winds in
excess of 50-60 kts possible across parts of the region. KPIH,
KIDA and KDIJ have the highest potential for winds like this
with slightly lower probabilities around KSUN and KBYI. After
14/02Z or so, convective potential drops quickly as cooler air
starts to move into the region with an associated cold front.
Skies will clear into the day on Thursday but winds will remain
breezy overnight and throughout much of the day tomorrow, 15-25
kts or so with higher gusts.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051>057-
067>070-075.

&&

DISCUSSION...Keyes
AVIATION...McKaughan

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
226 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     9 NW Small              44.31N 112.52W
05/13/2026  M78 MPH          Clark              ID   Mesonet

            Mesonet station PC371 Medicine Lodge.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
238 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     11 S Clementsville      43.71N 111.34W
05/13/2026  M65 MPH          Teton              ID   Mesonet

            Mesonet station RRWBT Relay Ridge Wind.

0215 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 NNE Dubois            44.24N 112.20W
05/13/2026  M62 MPH          Clark              ID   Mesonet

            Mesonet station SODUB Dubois.

0215 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 NNE Dubois            44.24N 112.20W
05/13/2026  M62 MPH          Clark              ID   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DUB 5 NNE Dubois.

0215 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     12 E Howe               43.78N 112.76W
05/13/2026  M61 MPH          Butte              ID   Mesonet

            Mesonet station SOSAN Sand Dunes.

0215 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     12 E Howe               43.78N 112.76W
05/13/2026  M61 MPH          Butte              ID   Mesonet

            Mesonet station SAN 12 E Howe.

0210 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     9 E Butte City          43.63N 113.06W
05/13/2026  M60 MPH          Butte              ID   Mesonet

            Mesonet station SODEA Dead Man Canyon.

1147 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     17 WSW Marion           42.17N 114.20W
05/13/2026  M59 MPH          Cassia             ID   Mesonet

            Mesonet station CRII1 Cotton Ridge.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
256 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

IDZ060-061-063-132130-
Bear Lake Valley ID-Bear River Range ID-Caribou Range ID-
256 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

...GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BEAR LAKE COUNTY THROUGH
330 PM MDT...

At 254 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers and strong
outflow winds associated with showers near Bear Lake, or near Bear
Lake Idaho Portion, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Montpelier, Bear Lake Idaho Portion, Saint Charles, Dingle,
Bloomington, Border Summit, Geneva, Fish Haven, Geneva Summit, and
Pegram.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near Bear Lake, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Strong winds will create rough chop.
Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles from the parent
thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be
struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught on
the water in a thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
southeastern Idaho.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 11150 4236 11132 4236 11105 4200 11105
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 216DEG 35KT 4198 11135

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

AMM