Special Marine Warning 30, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
619 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been expanded to include Kent
and Queen Anne's counties on the eastern shore of Maryland. The
Severe Thunder Watch is still in effect for all other areas
previously issued until 10PM EDT.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms move in this evening as a
cold front sweeps through. An Enhanced Risk for severe weather
is in place for much of the region.

2. Mainly dry conditions expected through the middle of next week
with warming temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and thunderstorms move in
this evening as a cold front sweeps through. The slight risk
from this morning was upgraded this afternoon to an Enhanced
Risk (3/5) portions of the I95 corridor with a Slight risk
(2/5) for severe weather in place for much of the region.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 10 PM EDT. The
risk for damaging wind gusts have increased.

A cold front will continue to move across Pennsylvania and New
York through this afternoon and tonight. The front is
encountering a warm and unstable airmass, with showers and
thunderstorms having developed well off to our west across
western Pennsylvania. These storms likely will congeal and form
a broken line segment or several broken line segments as they
move toward our area this evening. The main cluster of storms
will move into our area likely no earlier than 5 to 6 PM over
the Lehigh Valley and Southern Poconos. This cluster of storms
likely will push through the I-95 corridor between 8 to 11 PM
and then offshore by early tomorrow morning. A few rouge showers
ahead of the main band are possible.

With steep low level lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 degrees C/km, strong
downdrafts and damaging winds are likely to accompany some of
the thunderstorms. A secondary threat with these storms also is
the potential for 1" hail in stronger storms. The Storm
Prediction Center has upgraded the region to an Enhanced Risk
for severe weather. The potential for wind gusts up to 75 mph
has increased.

No flooding concerns as QPF amounts generally will be around a
tenth to three tenths of an inch with locally higher amounts
possible in any thunderstorms. Convection should be fast moving
as well.

As the initial front goes through, things should dry out pretty
quickly. Cannot rule out some patchy fog though in areas that
see some rainfall. The drier airmass will hold off until later
on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry conditions expected through the middle of
next week with warming temperatures.

The region will remain embedded within a belt of somewhat enhanced
mid-level flow through early next week as sharp trough located over
New England begins to close off and track slowly eastward away from
the region. Thereafter, mid-level ridging will likely begin to take
shape across the region through late week. At the surface, a cold
front will shift southeastward through the region late Sunday into
Monday. In its wake, high pressure will shift into the area, and
generally remain in place, though it may begin to break down some by
late week.

The cold front late Sunday into Monday looks to usher in slightly
cooler temperatures, with high temperatures on Monday generally in
the upper 70s to low 80s, and temperatures overnight Monday night
falling into the low to mid 50s. The cool down does look to be
fairly short lived with the high pressure taking shape across the
area afterwards. Steady warming is expected Tuesday and beyond, with
widespread low 90s by Wednesday and perhaps even mid or upper 90s by
late week.

In terms of precipitation chances, dry conditions are expected through
Tuesday night. Thereafter, as the high pressure breaks down slightly,
isolated to scattered, primarily diurnally driven convection
will be possible mid-late week. For now, PoPs are generally in
the 20-40% range each day Wednesday through Saturday. The
greatest coverage/POPs appears to be Thursday attm.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

into the Evening...Primarily VFR.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop off to the
west later this afternoon and push into our area this evening.

Decided on the TEMPO groups for timing the initial rounds of
tstms (higher confid too) KRDG/KABE/KTTN 22Z/23Z thru 01Z/02Z.

Other terminals still have some uncertainty so the VCTS/VCSH
groups retained for now. These areas will have their activity
23Z/00Z thru 03Z/04Z as it appears now. There isn't the greatest
confid in this however. KACY/KMIV also keep VC groups for now
too. We'll AMD by 20Z/21Z for the Delaware Valley if the threat
seems greater confid.

Winds will continue out of the west/southwest around 10-15 kt with
gusts 20-25 kt into the evening then decreasing after that. Gusty
winds of 30 to 40 kts probable near tstms.

Moderate confidence in the 18Z TAFS at best.

Overnight...Primarily VFR, but cannot rule out patchy fog (15-20%
chance) over areas that receive rainfall from showers and thunderstorms
this evening. Winds generally out of the west around 5 kt. Low confidence.

Sunday... VFR expected. West to Northwest winds increasing to around
10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts after 14Z/15Z.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Tuesday night...VFR. No significant weather.

Wednesday/Thursday...Primarily VFR. Brief periods of sub-VFR conditions
can't be ruled out in isolated to scattered afternoon showers
tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory are in effect for coastal waters north of
Great Egg Inlet as winds continue to increase to around 15 to 25
kt out of the southwest and seas get near 5 feet. Scattered showers
and tstms after sunset.

Lower seas and winds are expected over Delaware Bay and south of
Great Egg Inlet, where sub-SCA conditions are expected for this
afternoon and tonight. Scattered showers and tstms by sunset
NW.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...No marine headlines currently anticipated
with winds under 25 kt and seas less than 5 feet.

Rip Currents...

Sunday, west-northwest winds of 5-15 mph, becoming more
northwesterly in the afternoon. Breaking waves will be 2-3 feet.
There may be an increased south-southeasterly swell around 7-8
seconds. Given the increased swell, there is a MODERATE risk for
the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents
at the Jersey Shore. There is a LOW risk at Delaware beaches
where it currently appears the increased swell will not have as
much influence.

Monday, northwest winds in the morning of 10-15 mph, becoming
east- southeasterly in the afternoon around 10 mph. Breaking
wave heights will be 2-3 feet. There will be a light east-
northeasterly swell increasing some in the afternoon around 6-7
seconds. Given the orientation of the winds and swell, there is
a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life
threatening rip currents at Jersey Shore beaches with the
exception of those off of Cape May County, and a LOW risk for
beaches off Cape May County and all Delaware beaches.

Ocean water temperatures are generally near 60 degrees for much
of the Jersey Shore and the low 60s for Delaware beaches. These
chilly water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and
physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the
water.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ450>452.

&&

DISCUSSION...Cooper/Deal/Hoeflich/MJL
AVIATION...Cooper/Hoeflich/OHara
MARINE...Cooper/Hoeflich

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
506 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

MDZ012-015-019-020-070915-
Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
506 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms may affect the Eastern Shore of
Maryland this evening into tonight. Damaging wind gusts are the main
threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Hoeflich

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