Freeze Watch 4, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

651 
WWUS71 KPHI 020624
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
224 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

PAZ054-055-022100-
/O.CON.KPHI.FZ.A.0004.260503T0300Z-260503T1300Z/
Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Jim Thorpe and Stroudsburg
224 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 possible.

* WHERE...Carbon and Monroe Counties.

* WHEN...From this evening through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

MPS

160 
WWUS71 KPHI 021642
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1242 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

PAZ054-055-031300-
/O.UPG.KPHI.FZ.A.0004.260503T0300Z-260503T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.FZ.W.0005.260503T0300Z-260503T1300Z/
Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Jim Thorpe and Stroudsburg
1242 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT 
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 expected.

* WHERE...Carbon and Monroe Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

NJZ001-007>009-PAZ060>062-101-103-105-031300-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FR.Y.0005.260503T0300Z-260503T1300Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western
Chester-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Oxford, Chalfont, Perkasie, Flemington,
Newton, Allentown, Pottstown, Collegeville, Honey Brook,
Bethlehem, Washington, Reading, Morristown, and Easton
1242 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT 
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 32 will result in frost formation.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Morris, Sussex, Warren, and Hunterdon 
  Counties. In Pennsylvania, Berks, Lehigh, Northampton, Upper 
  Bucks, Western Chester, and Western Montgomery Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive 
  outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

RCM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
814 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Frost advisory expired.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. High pressure passes south of the region today, then weak
low pressure passes through the region tonight.

2. An off shore low Saturday into Saturday Night may bring a
little rain to coastal areas.

3. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible on Sunday.

4. A cold front Wednesday into Thursday could bring the next
chance for widespread precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure passes south of the region today,
then weak low pressure passes through the region tonight.

Surface high pressure is centered over West Virginia and will move
off the Mid-Atlantic coast later this afternoon. Mostly sunny
conditions on tap for today with highs generally in the mid to upper
60s, which are a few degrees shy of normal for this time of year.

Weak low pressure approaches from the west, and clouds will increase
and thicken late this afternoon and early this evening. Some light
rain will develop with its passage late tonight, but rainfall will
be minimal. Generally less than 1/10 inch.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An off shore low Saturday may bring a little
rain to coastal areas.

The There was a slight eastward trend in the track of the off
shore low with the 00Z guidance run. If this trend holds, then
rain with this system may be confined to the coastal counties.
Since this is a relatively new trend, stayed close to the
previous forecast and the blend of guidance which has rain
chances through the I-95 corridor. However, if this trend
continues, rain chances will decrease significantly for inland
areas.

The other implication is that if this trend continues, winds
won't be as breezy as previously forecast (at least for the day
on Saturday), as the tightest pressure gradient with this system
will be well off shore.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Elevated fire weather conditions are possible
on Sunday.

As the off shore low slides further away from our region, a
surface high is expected to build over the southeastern U.S. on
Sunday. This will result in an increasing pressure gradient and
northwest flow for our region. This type of pattern suggests a
very deep mixed layer and dry air advection. In fact some model
soundings show a mixed layer all the way to 775 mb!

Models (and consequently blends of models) tend to have a high
Dewpoint bias with such patterns, especially in the Spring.
Consequently, have included dewpoints that are on the lower side
of guidance during the day on Sunday. Even with temperatures
which will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, this would still
result in relative humidity values at or below 30 percent.

With the deep mixed layer and the pressure gradient, breezy
conditions (with wind gusts at or above 20 mph) are likely. The
combination of the low relative humidity and gusty winds could
result in rapid fire spread, if fuels are dry enough.

KEY MESSAGE 4...A cold front Wednesday into Thursday could
bring the next chance for widespread precipitation.

The next chance for widespread precipitation across our region
is Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front approaches the
northeastern U.S.. Some models show a cold front approaching on
Wednesday, then stalling near or west of our region, before a
secondary cold front finally crosses through our region on
Thursday, while other models depict the initial cold front
sweeping through our region entirely Wednesday or Wednesday
Night.

On the synoptic scale, this appears to be a split flow pattern
setting up, with the subtropical jet potentially as far north as
our latitude. Given that, and the fact that this is still in the
day 6 and 7 time frame, there is low confidence in any one
solution. However, regardless of the evolution of the cold
front, there should at least be a brief window for widespread
rain as it crosses through our region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. NW winds 5 to 10 kt, become S-SW this afternoon.
High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Some light RA with minimal, if any, restrictions.
Light S-SW winds. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday and Saturday Night...prevailing VFR. A brief period of MVFR
ceilings possible, primarily at KACY.

Sunday through Tuesday...VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions today and tonight.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt this morning will become south to
southwest late this afternoon and tonight. Seas will average 3
to 4 ft.

Outlook...

Saturday...Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria

Sunday...Winds above 20 kt likely, but less confident that winds
will reach 25 kt.

Monday through Tuesday...Prolonged and widespread SCA conditions
(due to both wind and waves) are likely. There is a small chance
(less than 20%) for winds to get to gale force, primarily on
Monday Night.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Johnson/MPS/RCM
AVIATION...Johnson/MPS
MARINE...Johnson/MPS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
505 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

MDZ012-015-019-020-020915-
Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
505 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.