Tornado Warning 51, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1250 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There is higher confidence in the potential for severe
thunderstorms this afternoon, given clearing skies to the west
allowing for increased instability. Beyond this evening, little
change was made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1)Severe weather and flash flooding risks continue this
afternoon and evening with renewed thunderstorm development.

2) After lingering showers dissipate Monday, there is fairly
high confidence in dry weather until Wednesday/Thursday, when
the next front arrives.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The region remains in a relative lull of activity between
overnight/early morning activity and developing convection to
the west, where a couple of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are
already in effect. The new activity is associated with a vort
max/MCV over northwest Ohio. Ahead of this, a good deal of
sunshine is allowing for a buildup of instability, and the HREF
suggests that 1500-2500 J/kg of surface-based CAPE is likely by
18Z, mainly south of I-80. Other convective parameters look best
from I-80 on south, roughly matching with the SPC Slight Risk
area. In particular, a pocket of 25-30 knots of 0-6km shear is
most likely in this region, supporting multicells with mainly a
damaging gust potential where cold pools help consolidate into
short lines. Lengthening low-level hodographs and sufficient
0-1km SRH continue to suggest a low-end tornado threat for any
ESE-moving storms.

Along with this the threat of flash flooding will continue to be
monitored, especially in areas that got heavier rain overnight.
This includes areas in eastern Ohio south of I-70, as well as a
strip extending from New Philadelphia ENE towards Butler County.
Although storms should be fairly progressive overall, the
environment remains highly supportive for efficient rainfall
production. The 12Z KPIT sounding recorded a precipitable water
measurement of 2.15 inches, which is the 9th-highest recorded
at the site since 1952. 2+ inch values remain in place through
this evening, along with 11k to 13k warm-cloud depths. The Flood
Watch will be maintained through tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Most of the convection should pull off to the east by 02Z-03Z,
although a few showers/storms may linger behind the main line as
another shortwave trough crosses in the mid-level zonal flow.
One last ripple in that flow crosses on Monday, leading to
showers and storms mainly south of Pittsburgh. Convective
parameters are unfavorable for severe weather with this
activity. Also, declining precipitable water values point to a
decreasing risk for heavy rainfall. The Flood Watch expires at 8
AM Monday, and an extension may not be needed.

High pressure building in from the Great Lakes should end
precipitation by Mon evening. Dry weather is then favored until
Wednesday, when the next front could potentially arrive,
although this timing could change. At this time, severe weather
and flooding risks appear low with this system, as supported by
longer-range machine learning guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly MVFR cigs continue this afternoon ahead of an approaching
prefrontal trough. A broken line of thunderstorms is expected to
track east across the region this afternoon and evening along
the prefrontal trough, with IFR restrictions. Some storms could
contain damaging wind and heavy rainfall. Included a tempo
mention in the tafs for the most likely time of arrival. Expect
a gradual deterioration back to IFR tonight with low level
moisture in place.

The surface cold front is progged to track across the region
Monday. Expect a gradual improvement in cig heights through the
day with mixing and some dry advection after FROPA. Airports
from near PIT and south could see a few afternoon showers or a
thunderstorm as this front crosses.

Outlook...
Other than early morning fog, VFR is then expected through
early Wednesday under high pressure. Restriction and
shower/thunderstorm chances return Wednesday and Wednesday night
with the approach and passage of a cold front. VFR returns
Thursday and Friday under high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch through Monday morning for PAZ020-021-029-031-
     073>076.
OH...Flood Watch through Monday morning for OHZ039>041-048>050-
     057>059-068-069.
WV...Flood Watch through Monday morning for WVZ001>004-012-021-
     509>514.

&&

DISCUSSION...CL
AVIATION...WM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1211 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ020-021-029-031-073>076-
WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-170415-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Beaver-Allegheny-Washington-
Greene-Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-
Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
1211 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, southwest
Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

A complex of showers and thunderstorms will move through the area on
Sunday morning. Flash flooding is the main risk with a lower
probability of isolated instances of damaging wind.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected this afternoon
and evening. These storms could be severe with damaging winds and
heavy downpours that could lead to flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

A few showers and thunderstorms could produce some heavy rainfall on
Monday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

PAZ007>009-013>016-022-077-078-170415-
Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Armstrong-
Indiana-Higher Elevations of Indiana-
1211 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible during Sunday afternoon and
evening. Some storms could be severe. The main threats will be
damaging winds and heavy downpours that could lead to minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A few showers and thunderstorms could produce some heavy rainfall on
Monday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Shallenberger

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1149 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     Flood            6 SSW Stafford          39.63N 81.32W
08/16/2026                   Noble              OH   Dept of Highways

            Several roads closed.

&&

WM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
136 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007-008-013-014-020-021-029-
031-WVZ001>004-012-021-509-162000-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Lawrence-
Butler-Beaver-Allegheny-Washington-Greene-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-
Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Including the cities of New Philadelphia, Dover, Carrollton,
Malvern, East Liverpool, Salem, Columbiana, Coshocton, Cadiz,
Steubenville, Zanesville, Cambridge, Martins Ferry,
St. Clairsville, Caldwell, Woodsfield, Sharon, Hermitage,
Grove City, Oil City, Franklin, New Castle, Ellwood City, Butler,
Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area,
Washington, Canonsburg, Waynesburg, Weirton, Follansbee,
Wellsburg, Wheeling, Moundsville, New Martinsville, Fairmont,
and Morgantown
136 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

A line of thunderstorms will continue to move east across the
region this afternoon. Some of these storms could contain wind
gusts up to 50 mph. There is also a potential for severe storms
with damaging wind gusts of 60 mph. The storms should approach the
Pittsburgh area between 3:30 and 4 pm. Severe thunderstorm
warnings may be needed. In addition, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
is in effect until 8 PM.

WM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
211 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSW North Zanesville  39.97N 82.00W
08/16/2026                   Muskingum          OH   911 Call Center

            Trees and power lines down.

&&

WM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
213 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0213 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSE Zanesville        39.94N 82.01W
08/16/2026                   Muskingum          OH   911 Call Center

            Trees and power lines down.

&&

WM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
219 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSW Zanesville        39.94N 82.02W
08/16/2026                   Muskingum          OH   911 Call Center

            *** 1 INJ ***
            Person hit by a falling tree.

&&

WM