Tornado Warning 2, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

940 
WWUS51 KPBZ 111721
SVSPBZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
121 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

OHC013-111-121-111745-
/O.CON.KPBZ.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260311T1745Z/
Belmont OH-Monroe OH-Noble OH-
121 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN BELMONT, NORTHWESTERN MONROE AND CENTRAL NOBLE
COUNTIES...

At 121 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 6 miles east of Caldwell, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
  Woodsfield, Caldwell, Dudley, Summerfield, Lewisville, Sarahsville,
  Jerusalem, Wilson, Somerton, Stafford, Graysville, Miltonsburg and
  Laings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built building
away from windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a
vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself
from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3978 8155 3995 8112 3969 8097 3965 8133
      3966 8133 3967 8134 3967 8135 3968 8136
      3968 8140 3969 8140 3969 8147 3970 8147
      3970 8151 3971 8151 3971 8154 3973 8154
      3973 8155
TIME...MOT...LOC 1713Z 252DEG 42KT 3970 8152

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<1.00 IN

$$

MLB

869 
WWUS51 KPBZ 111725 RRA
SVSPBZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
125 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

OHC013-111-121-111745-
/O.CON.KPBZ.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260311T1745Z/
Belmont OH-Monroe OH-Noble OH-
125 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN BELMONT, NORTHWESTERN MONROE AND CENTRAL NOBLE
COUNTIES...

At 125 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 9 miles east of Caldwell, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
  Woodsfield, Caldwell, Dudley, Summerfield, Lewisville, Sarahsville,
  Jerusalem, Wilson, Somerton, Stafford, Graysville, Miltonsburg and
  Laings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built building
away from windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a
vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself
from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3978 8155 3995 8112 3969 8097 3965 8133
      3966 8133 3967 8134 3967 8135 3968 8136
      3968 8140 3969 8140 3969 8147 3970 8147
      3970 8151 3971 8151 3971 8154 3973 8154
      3973 8155
TIME...MOT...LOC 1721Z 252DEG 42KT 3972 8141

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

MLB

040 
WWUS51 KPBZ 111732
SVSPBZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
132 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

OHC013-111-121-111745-
/O.CON.KPBZ.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260311T1745Z/
Belmont OH-Monroe OH-Noble OH-
132 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN BELMONT, NORTHWESTERN MONROE AND EAST CENTRAL NOBLE
COUNTIES...

At 132 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 7 miles west of Woodsfield, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
  Woodsfield, Summerfield, Lewisville, Jerusalem, Wilson, Somerton,
  Stafford, Graysville, Miltonsburg and Laings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built building
away from windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a
vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself
from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3965 8130 3966 8131 3967 8131 3968 8133
      3968 8135 3969 8135 3970 8140 3971 8141
      3971 8143 3972 8143 3972 8144 3977 8144
      3977 8143 3979 8143 3979 8142 3981 8142
      3981 8141 3984 8140 3995 8112 3969 8097
TIME...MOT...LOC 1725Z 252DEG 42KT 3974 8134

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

MLB

452 
WWUS51 KPBZ 111738
SVSPBZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
138 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

OHC121-111748-
/O.CAN.KPBZ.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260311T1745Z/
Noble OH-
138 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...TORNADO WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR EAST CENTRAL NOBLE COUNTY...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. To report severe weather,
contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your
report to the National Weather Service office.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT Wednesday for a
portion of east central Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 3987 8124 3990 8124 3995 8112 3973 8099
      3971 8128 3971 8132 3987 8131
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 252DEG 42KT 3976 8124

$$


OHC013-111-111745-
/O.CON.KPBZ.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260311T1745Z/
Belmont OH-Monroe OH-
138 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN BELMONT AND NORTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

At 138 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Woodsfield, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
  Woodsfield, Lewisville, Jerusalem, Wilson, Somerton, Stafford and
  Miltonsburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built building
away from windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a
vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself
from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3987 8124 3990 8124 3995 8112 3973 8099
      3971 8128 3971 8132 3987 8131
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 252DEG 42KT 3976 8124

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

MLB

356 
WWUS51 KPBZ 111742
SVSPBZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
142 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

OHC013-111-111752-
/O.EXP.KPBZ.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260311T1745Z/
Belmont OH-Monroe OH-
142 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...TORNADO WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 145 PM EDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN BELMONT
AND NORTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. To report severe
weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send
your report to the National Weather Service office.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT Wednesday for a
portion of east central Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 3987 8124 3990 8124 3995 8112 3973 8099
      3971 8128 3971 8132 3987 8131
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 252DEG 42KT 3978 8115

$$

MLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
510 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Little change in the overall severe threat for today. Severe
weather in early morning convection is unlikely. Two rounds of
mid/late morning and mid afternoon thunderstorms will be the
greatest threat for severe weather (primarily damaging wind and
tornadoes). Some uncertainty remains with cold frontal
convection, but indications point to a weaker, less-organized
line.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread rain and severe thunderstorm chances today

2) Windy and cooler late week with rain/snow chances

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface low pressure will deepen and cross the Great Lakes
today. Broad ascent under diffluent mid-level flow with warm
and moist advection should support several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms before a cold front passes this evening. Severe
thunderstorms, capable of producing strong damaging wind gusts,
tornadoes, and hail, will be most likely during the late morning
and afternoon rounds of convection. Confidence in severe storms
along/just ahead of the cold front is lower.

This morning finds us already in the open warm sector with the
nearest leading convection across northern Indiana, NW Ohio,
and into southern Ontario. CAMs do still generally show a few
showers/thunderstorms developing near daybreak over Ohio and
crossing into western PA, but coverage and intensity of this
convection is far less than previously advertised. More
significant convection remains north of our forecast area.
Regardless, any thunderstorms this early are likely to remain
elevated given the stable near-surface profiles. This will
significantly throttle wind and tornado potential, and lacking
mid-level thermodynamics will limit hail.

It appears the first major round of convection does not arrive
in eastern Ohio until mid-morning, crossing the Pittsburgh
metro area closer to noon. By this point, an 850-700 mb low
level jet will have ramped up with convective coverage on its
nose. MLCAPE values are progged to around 500 J/kg, hodographs
elongate, and HREF mean 0-1 km SRH exceeds 200 m2/s2. This
indicates a ripe, but conditional, environment for rotating
storms. By this point, most CAMs paint little near-surface
updraft helicity tracks, but this could be misleading as
profiles look more isothermal or weakly unstable rather than
stable. With strong kinematics and low LCLs with reinforced
surface moisture, it's certainly plausible that those are enough
to overcome marginal thermodynamic profiles and this round
poses a wind and tornado threat, conditional on storms being
truly rooted at the surface.

Uncertainty increases heading into mid/late afternoon. CAMs
model two distinct scenarios. The favored and increasingly
probable scenario -- depicted by a majority of CAMs -- drives a
second cluster of thunderstorms through the area by mid-
afternoon, trailing the morning round by roughly 2-3 hours. The
critical question then becomes whether the environment can
adequately recover to support a second round of organized severe
convection. Modeled CAPE values recovering above 1000 J/kg offer
some optimism, though lingering cloud debris and a compressed
recovery window introduce considerable uncertainty. Storm mode
for this round trends mixed, with CAMs depicting a combination
of clustered/linear features alongside discrete cells. This
would pose the greatest tornado and damaging wind potential
given sufficient recovery. The minority scenario, offered by the
3K NAM and a few NSSL MPAS CAMs, clears the area of convection
near midday ahead of the cold frontal passage this evening.

Peak forcing arrives with the cold front this evening. The
minority scenario would afford ample recovery time ahead of
frontal convection, yielding a strong QLCS with damaging winds
and an embedded tornado through the early evening. Though this
would represent the greatest severe threat for the day, and
possibly prompt an upgrade to Enhanced, this solution remains
increasingly unlikely. The more probable outcome with mid-
afternoon convection leaves little opportunity for environmental
recovery despite continued south-southwesterly flow. In this
scenario, frontal convection organizes into a weaker, less-
organized line with a more limited severe threat. Given the
lingering uncertainty, the Slight Risk has been maintained.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The aforementioned cold front will usher in a much cooler and drier
airmass in its wake with dew points crashing into the teens and 20s
by Thursday afternoon. Strong cold advection will provide an
opportunity for some light snow showers in the afternoon as well,
but accumulation should be minimal at best with ground temperatures
needing a bit of time to react. In the ridges with persistent
upslope flow, can't rule out a few tenths of an inch. Steepened
lapse rates and mixing will provide gusts to 25-30 mph.

Friday looks to be the windiest day as low pressure crosses off to
our north. The best forcing looks to be in that direction as well,
but if the low nudges a bit farther south, warm advection will drive
some light snow showers primarily north of Pittsburgh. NBM 90th
percentile only suggests around an inch at the worst case scenario.
Strong wind gusts are likely to be most impactful on Friday with a
tightening gradient. NBM probability of Wind Advisory criteria (46+
mph gusts) range from about 50-70% for a large portion of the
region. Eastern Tucker County shows similar probability to reach
High Wind Warning criteria (58+ mph), so wind headlines may be
needed.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
With the region well within the warm sector, warm moist
advection will promote shower and storm development this morning
ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Latest
ensembles show 80-100% probabilities for MVFR conditions
areawide during the day and a 50-70% chance of IFR spreading
from north to south this later this afternoon and this evening
across the region.

There will be severe potential with storms, especially from
mid-afternoon through mid-evening. Much will depend on earlier
convection, so expect amendments to address timing/conditions
at most ports through the day. The main impact is expected to
be damaging winds, but large hail and tornadoes cannot be ruled
out either.

Several rounds of convection will be possible, and have
highlighted this in latest TAFs with PROB30s for now given the
timing uncertainty.

Winds are expected to ramp up through the day with WSW winds
gusting up to 30 knots in some instances.

Outlook...
Rain will transition to snow late tonight into Thursday behind
the front.

Cig restrictions and gusty wind are likely Thursday in cold NW
flow and with a crossing upper trough. Restrictions, gusty wind,
rain and snow are likely to continue Friday with another
crossing cold front. VFR returns Saturday under high pressure.
Restrictions are possible Sunday with a crossing warm front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Rackley/MLB
AVIATION...88

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
210 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-
031-073>078-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>513-120615-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest-
Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-
Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-
Fayette-Higher Elevations of Fayette-Indiana-
Higher Elevations of Indiana-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-
Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-
210 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western
Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms return this morning with several rounds
before a cold front crosses this evening. Some storms may be strong
to severe, particularly in the afternoon hours. Damaging wind gusts
will be the main threat, though tornadoes are possible. A Slight
Risk (level 2 of 5) is outlooked.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong wind gusts are possible Friday with probability of exceeding
Wind Advisory criteria (46 mph) around 50-70%. Wind headlines may be
needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

WVZ514-120615-
Eastern Tucker-
210 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms return this morning with several rounds
before a cold front crosses this evening. Some storms may be strong
to severe, particularly in the afternoon hours. Damaging wind gusts
will be the main threat, though tornadoes are possible. A Slight
Risk (level 2 of 5) is outlooked.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong wind gusts are possible Friday with probability of exceeding
High Wind Warning criteria (58 mph) around 50-90%. Wind headlines
may be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

RACKLEY