Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
224 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Overall, there was minimal change to the forecast. There is
still a Marginal Risk for severe storms this afternoon and
evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe
thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening, with damaging
wind gusts the primary threat.

2) A cold front Saturday afternoon and evening will bring another
round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. Damaging
wind again appears to be the most likely threat.

3) Much above-normal temperatures continue until the Saturday
cold front passage. Behind it, temperatures crash to much
below-normal levels. Frost/freeze concerns return by early next
week, and even a few Sunday night snowflakes are possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Another round of strong to severe storms will be possible later
this afternoon and evening, and SPC has maintained the Marginal
Risk for the area. Currently, warm air aloft is keeping a lid
on convection across the region. CAMs have been consistent in
showing convection holding off until the latter half of the
afternoon when the warm cap (still evident in latest aircraft
observations) begins to erode. A sfc trough will begin
crossing eastern OH zones around 4PM, continuing east through
early evening, coinciding with effective shear around 40-50kts
and MLCAPE around 500 J/kg. This should result in isolated to
scattered thunderstorms with coverage slowly increasing into the
late afternoon/early evening as activity crosses our region.

The environment looks less favorable than yesterday with less
instability and weaker lapse rates. Damaging wind is the most
likely impact from stronger storms, especially if they organize
into clusters/short lines.

A shortwave digging across the Tennessee Valley will help to
dislodge what has been a stubborn southeast CONUS ridge Thursday
night as the afternoon and evening showers and storms work
their way out after sunset. Behind this wave, a brief period of
mid-level ridging should allow for a break from the daily
thunderstorm activity for most of Friday and Friday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A stronger cold front is still slated to cross during the
afternoon/evening hours of Saturday, bringing better dynamics
and another chance of organized severe weather. The main
question with this boundary remains timing, which would have
implications on how much instability will be available. This
will depend at least in part on the speed and orientation of the
associated 500mb shortwave trough. Ensemble clusters suggest
some fairly minor differences in strength and timing with this
wave as well as the surface boundary. Machine- learning guidance
from NCAR and CSU continue to highlight the area for potential
severe weather, and SPC has portions of the forecast area under
either a Marginal or Slight Risk at Day 3. Ensemble soundings
during that period depict generally poor mid- level lapse rates
and modest low- level hodograph curvature, suggesting damaging
wind gusts would again be the most likely impact.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Much above-normal temperatures continue into Saturday as
ridging begins to build back over the region Friday and Saturday
ahead of the mentioned front. There may be some modest
potential to approach records on Saturday, especially if the
front is later than currently projected, allowing for a longer
period of warm southwest flow. NBM probabilities of 80 or warmer
may be a bit overstated, but much of the area from Pittsburgh
south should have at least a 50/50 shot of reaching that level.

Meanwhile, behind the front, the script flips, and northeast
CONUS troughing leads to daytime high temperatures some 10-15
degrees below normal for Sunday and Monday, before approaching
climatology on Tuesday. Frost/freeze products may need to be
issued by early next week, and some Sunday night snowflakes are
a possibility.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR diurnal cu has sprouted this afternoon in a warm
environment but are so far struggling to gain much growth with
poor lapse rates and a cap evident on latest PIT ACARS
soundings. Upstream obs closer to a surface trough in Ohio are
indicating a bit better growth but still in a lackluster
environment for strong convection. That said, a line of broken
showers and storms are now developing along and ahead of the
trough, and there remains a low probability that some could be
strong to severe. Today's primary threat will be gusty wind and
heavy rain with profiles not very supportive of hail. These
storms can bring brief bouts of MVFR restrictions or a few dips
to IFR, but with notable 15-20 degree dew point depressions,
cloud bases even within convection will be high and restriction
is likely to come more from visibility. Altogether, CAMs are in
good agreement on a ~20z arrival to ZZV, ~22z to western PA,
and exiting past LBE by ~00z, though CAMs still support some
lingering showers behind the trough, so have kept a PROB30
group for this for a few hours after the storms exit. Timing
has been broken down with prevailing groups showing the greatly
increased confidence in timing of this convection, but lightning
is lower confidence given thermodynamic profiles, so have opted
for prevailing SHRA with TEMPOs for TSRA.

Wind gusts out of the southwest will hold stout afternoon with
mixing to 20-25 kts ahead of the frontal passage. Behind the
front, winds shift to more westerly and gradually diminish after
sunset.

CIGs are expected to begin to fall overnight Thursday night with
50-70% probability for MVFR, highest north, quickly
overspreading from north to south. Guidance has slowed down a
bit and pulled north with the extent of restrictions, but a
period of IFR for FKL/DUJ is still favored in the latter half of
the overnight hours.

Outlook...
Friday should be mostly dry following Thursday evening's weak
frontal passage. However, another low pressure system and a
stronger cold front approach the area on Saturday, returning
shower and thunderstorm chances (and associated restrictions) to
the region through the weekend. Dry weather and VFR conditions
are then favored as we head into early next week with a pattern
shift following the weekend cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...CL/88
AVIATION...MLB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1210 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-
031-073>078-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-171615-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest-
Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-
Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-
Fayette-Higher Elevations of Fayette-Indiana-
Higher Elevations of Indiana-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-
Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
1210 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western
Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat,
with a lesser chance of large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Saturday will bring another threat for severe thunderstorms as a
strong cold front crosses the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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