Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
106 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecasts for the heat and possible record breaking temperatures
remained largely in line with the previous cycle. The warm layer
seems to be more of a hindrance that the past forecast led on.
Some evaporative cooling to erode the cap will be needed today
for significant severe storms. The Slight risk is still in line
for tomorrow.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Anomalously warm temperatures this week. Daily record high
max and minimum temperatures will be challenged and possibly
broken, especially on Wednesday.

2) Increasing daily storm chances this week with a possible
multi- day MCS event. Areawide marginal Risk of severe weather
today.

3) Severe risk continues Wednesday with a Slight Risk of severe
weather north of I-70 and Marginal Risk between I-68 and I-70.
Storm chances to continue Thursday as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The ridge anchored across the Southeast and eastern Gulf
continues to influence our weather through the week. At its
strongest, the ridge will near 590dam (just over 2 standard
deviations above normal for this time of year). This abnormally
strong ridge will continue to support abnormally high
temperatures (over 3 standard deviations above normal) across
the region through the work week and possibly as late as
Saturday. Our location on the northwestern side of the ridge
will continue warm and moist southwesterly flow over the coming
days. Locally, heat looks to peak on Wednesday, with 500mb
heights hitting 580dam over the city and widespread 850mb
temperatures between 14-16C, suggesting that unhindered mixing
would see temperatures surge into at least the middle 80s.

Probabilities of high temperatures over 80 degrees remain near
and over 60% for areas south of I-80 each day from Tuesday-
Thursday and then again on Saturday. Friday looks like heating
may be interrupted by a rain-laden cold front pushing through
the region. This could finally help shake up the pattern before
models seem to indicate another Low moving through the Great
Lakes early this weekend.

Record high max and min temperatures look like they will be
tied or set at several sites across our region, especially on
Wednesday and Thursday. Daily rain chances look to be the only
thing possibly keeping a lid on record challenging runaway
heating. These chances are highest north, closer to the
periphery of the ridge, and thus probabilities of record setting
heat generally decrease from south to north. Each site features
at least one day with a >40% chance to set a new record high
and PHD (shortest climate record) features 3 days with >70%
chance. Concurrently, each site also features at least 2 days
with >50% chance of setting new record high minimum temperatures
and PIT features 5 straight days with >65% chance of doing so.
PIT features several "low hanging fruit" in this category with 3
such daily high minimum temperatures in the 50s. Our forecast
for Wednesday lows may break the old record of 58 by a whopping
8 degrees.

Minor heat risk continues areawide today through Thursday
before retracting some on Friday. Heat impacts will primarily be
felt by those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those
without cooling/hydration. Speckled moderate risk areas continue
to crop up Wednesday and Saturday and are expanding in area,
mainly in the Ohio and Mon river valleys.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
We are at the beginning of what looks like it could be a multi-
day MCS event across the Great Lakes and into our region. This
pattern owing to our anomalously strong ridge feels much more
like a June setup than an April one. Warm and moist
southwesterly flow will set the table each afternoon for storms
to fire along decaying or residual boundaries left over from
the previous nights convection and renewed convection cresting
the top of the ridge could press into the forecast area
overnight starting the whole process again.

Todays convection is having a difficult time eroding the warm
layer. As seen on the 12Z southing, strong capping was present
at 700MB and below that. Thus storms are having a difficult time
of developing and getting some depth. Early showers and
thunderstorms have likely weaken the cap a bit. With afternoon
heating, it will remain to be seen if deeper convection is
realized as at this time, CAMs are struggling to develop
anything now. Thus, it is likely that the development this
afternoon will be subsevere. Certainly, a 40 mph gust can't be
ruled out with an overperforming strong storm.

Overnight, it looks likely that we decouple in a rapidly
worsening environment. Several CAMs depict one or more bowing
segments moving across southern MI towards us late tonight.
These segments tend to move quicker than modeling suggests but
would still likely not enter the region until after 2am or so.
By this time it looks unlikely but still possible to see a
damaging wind threat from these storms.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
The ridging and shortwave pattern and thus multi-day MCS event
continues into Wednesday. Wednesday sees more impressive heating
and increasing moisture advection in continued southwesterly
flow. As such, model soundings feature well over 2000 J/kg of
CAPE across much of the region, very impressive for our region
in April. This comes hand in hand with a 5-10kt increase in
shear when compared to Tuesday. These elements could allow for
isolated to scattered super cellular structures to develop
across the region or for a quick reinvigoration of any ongoing
MCS/MCV left over from Tuesday night. Multi-day MCS propagation
forecasting is very low confidence, with Wednesday's forecast
highly dependent on Tuesday night.

Storms on Wednesday look like they could bring all severe
hazards, with increasing low-level moisture lowering LCLs and
more robust CAPE at the SFC and in the -20 to -30C range. SPC
has introduced a Marginal Risk to our region north of the Mason-
Dixon Line and a Slight Risk north of I-70 on Wednesday. Timing
for this seems to point more toward the 16Z to 20Z timeframe
with additional convection after 23Z. Both time periods
currently have a decent potential for development of severe
storms.

Storms look likely to continue on Thursday, but the pattern
breaks down a little as a more meaningful SFC low moves through
the Great Lakes. This could end the multi-day MCS event but
could bring its own renewed chance for storms along the draping
cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Approaching MCV may spawn more widespread convection this
afternoon into the early evening as it travels east, but
confidence in storm coverage and timing is low as current
convection and its progress are poorly modeled. The likelihood
of seeing gusty and erratic winds does appears lower as
increased cloud cover will limit heating and destabilization.

VFR is favored in the wake of the MCV as storms diminish;
however, linger storms or additional lift showers may keep
storms longer near FKL/DUJ while also fostering late night MVFR
cigs but confidence in this outcome is low. Additionally,
upstream convection through Michigan may dive southeast after
09z but its ability to maintain strength (or even dive
southward) remains a mystery.

Wednesday's outlook is eerily similar with potential for
thunderstorms that produce gusty winds but a wide range of
timing/coverage solutions in play.

Outlook...
The Upper Ohio River Valley will remain positioned near the
upper ridge axis throughout the week and make it liable for
multiple shortwave crossing to foster periodic
showers/thunderstorms and precip-driven restrictions.

A pattern shift is unlikely to occur until late Sunday into
Monday before confidence becomes high again on a prolonged
period of dry, VFR weather.

&&

.CLIMATE...
See below for record max highs and max lows this week:

Today, April 14th:         Max High     Max Low
Pittsburgh, PA:            86F (1883)   64F (1896)
Wheeling, WV:              87F (1941)   60F (2014)
Morgantown, WV:            86F (2018)   66F (2014)
New Philadelphia, OH:      82F (2023)   56F (2006)
Zanesville, OH:            87F (1941)   60F (1899)
DuBois, PA:                86F (2023)   60F (2014)

Wednesday, April 15th:     Max High     Max Low
Pittsburgh, PA:            85F (1883)   61F (1967)
Wheeling, WV:              82F (2010)   59F (2002)
Morgantown, WV:            86F (1993)   65F (1967)
New Philadelphia, OH:      82F (2010)   58F (2023)
Zanesville, OH:            85F (1941)   61F (1972)
DuBois, PA:                79F (2003)   56F (2002)

Thursday, April 16th:      Max High     Max Low
Pittsburgh, PA:            86F (2002)   63F (2017)
Wheeling, WV:              86F (1945)   64F (2002)
Morgantown, WV:            88F (2002)   64F (2012)
New Philadelphia, OH:      85F (2002)   62F (2017)
Zanesville, OH:            86F (2002)   65F (1912)
DuBois, PA:                82F (2012)   59F (1976)

Friday, April 17th:        Max High     Max Low
Pittsburgh, PA:            87F (1896)   63F (1896)
Wheeling, WV:              84F (2002)   64F (2002)
Morgantown, WV:            89F (1976)   64F (1960)
New Philadelphia, OH:      84F (2002)   60F (1982)
Zanesville, OH:            88F (1896)   66F (1896)
DuBois, PA:                83F (2002)   60F (2002)

Saturday, April 18th:      Max High     Max Low
Pittsburgh, PA:            90F (1896)   64F (1896)
Wheeling, WV:              85F (2025)   63F (2002)
Morgantown, WV:            92F (1976)   64F (2013)
New Philadelphia, OH:      86F (1976)   57F (2019)
Zanesville, OH:            92F (1896)   66F (1896)
DuBois, PA:                87F (1976)   61F (2002)

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Shallenberger/AK
AVIATION...Frazier

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
223 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

OHZ039>041-048>050-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-073-074-077-078-
WVZ001-002-151830-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-Mercer-
Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-
Armstrong-Washington-Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-
Indiana-Higher Elevations of Indiana-Hancock-Brooke-
223 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western
Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms look possible this afternoon and
evening across the region. Storms will bring a mainly damaging wind
gust threat. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for Severe
Storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are once again possible on Wednesday.
Storms could present all forms of severe hazards. There is a Slight
Risk (level 2 out of 5) for Severe Storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ057>059-068-069-PAZ031-075-076-WVZ003-004-151830-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Greene-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Ohio-Marshall-
223 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, southwest
Pennsylvania and the northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms look possible this afternoon and
evening across the region. Storms will bring a mainly damaging wind
gust threat. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for Severe
Storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are once again possible on Wednesday.
Storms could present all forms of severe hazards. There is a
Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for Severe Storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

WVZ012-021-509>514-151830-
Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
223 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms look possible this afternoon and
evening across the region. Storms will bring a mainly damaging wind
gust threat. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for Severe
Storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

TC