Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
139 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms expected today into
early tomorrow morning. An additional half inch to inch of rain
expected across the region through tomorrow morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Passing shortwave trough increases rain/isolated storm
coverage today into tomorrow morning

2) Rain chances and isolated storms expected south of Pittsburgh
Monday into Wednesday

3) Cooler and drier conditions expected late week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Light to moderate rain is expected to spread into the area this
afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough moves across the
Great Lakes and shifts eastward. Over the past 12hrs, high-
resolution guidance has consistently indicated the potential
for heavier rainfall rates north of Pittsburgh between 8pm
tonight through midnight. Given that this area only received an
inch of rain in 48 hours, the overall flood threat is considered
low. Creeks and streams will likely rise with additional
precip, but confidence remains low that water will reach or
exceed bankfull levels. As a result, no Flood Watch will be
issued with this forecast package.

With saturated temperature profiles for a bulk of the time
period, the probability of lightning with passing thunderstorms
is also considered low but not zero. If a thunderstorm does
evolve, it would most likely be between 6pm and 11pm south of
I-80.

Rain intensity is expected to decrease after 2am Monday as the
shortwave exits and mid-lvl dry air advances from the west.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
In the wake of a departing shortwave early Monday, the ridge
axis that has remained over the Northeast in recent days is
expected to weaken, allowing more zonal flow to develop. As a
result, precipitation chances through Wednesday will generally
remain confided to areas south of Pittsburgh. At this time, the
flood threat across the region remains very low during this time
period.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

By midweek, long-range guidance suggests a closed low pressure
system will persist along the West Coast while a ridge
strengthens over the Northern Plains. This pattern is expected
to promote deep northwest flow across promotes of Great Lakes
and Northeast. As a result, cooler and drier conditions are
anticipated late in the week and continuing into the weekend.
The threat for hazardous weather is considered low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
General VFR is expected this afternoon with light showers before
heavier rainfall moves in this evening around 00z. Removed
mention of thunder for the afternoon with this package as
thunder probs have dropped significantly. Although a few rumbles
may be possible, expect mainly rain through the afternoon and
overnight. IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely late
tonight into early Monday before eventual improvement to VFR
Monday afternoon.

Wind remains light and south/southeasterly today, becoming
northerly with cold frontal passage early Monday.

Outlook...
Improvement to VFR is expected Monday afternoon with building
high pressure. The cold front will stall south of the area,
keeping daily rain and restriction chances mainly south of PIT
through Wednesday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Hefferan
AVIATION...Rackley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
524 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

OHZ039>041-048-PAZ013-252130-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Lawrence-
524 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio and
southwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into
tonight, with locally heavy rainfall possible. With the ground
saturated in some locations due to the recent rainfall and renewed
higher rain rates, localized flooding will be possible especially in
areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ007>009-015-016-WVZ512>514-252130-
Mercer-Venango-Forest-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Eastern Preston-
Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
524 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania,
western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ049-050-057>059-068-069-PAZ014-020>022-029-031-073>078-WVZ001>004-
012-021-509>511-252130-
Harrison-Jefferson OH-Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Butler-
Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-
Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Indiana-Higher Elevations of Indiana-
Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
524 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, southwest
Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into
tonight, with locally heavy rainfall possible. With the ground
saturated in some locations due to the recent rainfall and renewed
higher rain rates, localized flooding will be possible especially in
areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Kramar