Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
141 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe storms expected today between 5pm and 10pm with a passing
cold front; damaging winds the main threat. Flood Watch issued
for the ridges and adjacent lowlands of western PA and northern
WV, where the highest rainfall amounts are expected due to
training thunderstorms.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Damaging wind gusts possible in thunderstorms this evening
along a crossing cold front

2) Another low pressure system expected to return thunderstorms
and severe weather chances on Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A cold front, currently moving across central Michigan, is
expected to reach our region late this evening. As the front
approaches, a squall line is expected to develop near Lake Erie
and track south. Damaging straight-line winds will be the
primary hazard. Secondary threats include quarter sized hail,
brief embedded tornadoes along the cold front, and locally heavy
rainfall.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed areas north of Interstate
70 in an Enhanced Risk (3/5) for severe weather, where the
orientation of the wind shear relative to the front is most
favorable for producing widespread damaging straight-line winds.
Numerous communities could experience downed trees and
scattered power outages this evening as the squall line moves
through.

Ahead of the approaching cold front, a few discrete
thunderstorms may develop. If these storms produce updrafts that
rapidly strengthen they could generate strong, ice-loaded
downdrafts capable of producing severe wind gusts.

The higher elevations of western PA and northern WV, and their
adjacent lowlands, are still forecast to receive the heaviest
rainfall accumulations of the day per latest convective allowing
models, primarily due to a combination of afternoon rounds of
thunderstorms and training along the slowly-advancing evening
cold front. The Weather Prediction Center has upgraded their
excessive rainfall outlook to a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 4)
for these areas, and a Flood Watch has been issued until
Midnight tonight.

The probability of thunderstorms is expected to decrease between
9pm and 11pm this evening as the cold front exits south into
central West Virginia.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Machine learning guidance has remained consistent in signaling
that a low pressure system tracking across the Great Lakes on
Tuesday will bring another threat of severe storms to the
region. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined the
entire forecast domain in a 15% severe weather risk. Damaging
wind gusts and tornadoes appear to the be the primary hazard as
strong wind shear accompanies this large-scale system.

In addition to the severe weather threat, there is also the
potential for training showers and storms with a potential
mesoscale convection system (MCS) across the Ohio River Valley.
Rainfall totals could range between 1.5-2 inches in a short
period of time and result in flash flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage across the region is
expected to continue into the evening hours. There is a somewhat
isolated nature to this activity such that long stretches could
be clear at any one port but most have VCTS to cover this
activity. Ports will be updated as needed for additional
impacts. Within these storms, vis could drop between 1SM to 3SM
briefly. These storms could bring damaging wind gusts and carry
a low end tornado risk.

Between 21Z and 03Z the cold front is expected to advance south
of Lake Erie and bring a more solid line of thunderstorms with a
greater risk for damaging winds. At this time TEMPOS continue
for strong wind gusts in heavy thunderstorms along the front.
Additional timing breakdowns will follow once the line develops
and timing becomes more confident.

Outlook... MVFR to IFR CIG restrictions are possible Sunday
morning before VFR returns Sunday and Monday under high
pressure. Restrictions return in showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday with a cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ015-016-022-
     073>078.
OH...None.
WV...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ511-512.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ001>004-
     012-021-509>514.

&&

DISCUSSION...Cermak/Hefferan
AVIATION...AK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1230 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013-014-020-021-029-
031-WVZ001>004-012-021-509-510-513-514-191630-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest-
Lawrence-Butler-Beaver-Allegheny-Washington-Greene-Hancock-Brooke-
Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Western Tucker-
Eastern Tucker-
1230 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western
Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A passing cold front from the north will likely create damaging wind
gusts later today. An Enhanced Risk (3/5) is in effect for areas
north of I-70; Slight Risk (2/5) for areas south of Pittsburgh. The
threat of severe storms is elevated between 5pm and 10pm. There is
also a Marginal Risk (1/4) for flooding late this evening; pockets
of 1-2 inches of rain could occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A passing low pressure system over the Great Lakes returns the
threat of severe weather and flash flooding to the region on
Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

PAZ015-016-022-073>078-WVZ511-512-191630-
Clarion-Jefferson PA-Armstrong-Westmoreland-
Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Indiana-Higher Elevations of Indiana-
Preston-Eastern Preston-
1230 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Pennsylvania and
northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

A passing cold front from the north will likely create damaging wind
gusts later today. An Enhanced Risk (3/5) is in effect for areas
north of I-70; Slight Risk (2/5) for areas south of Pittsburgh. The
threat of severe storms is elevated between 5pm and 10pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A passing low pressure system over the Great Lakes returns the
threat of severe weather and flash flooding to the region on
Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

TC

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