Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
130 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flood Watch continues through 10pm from training showers and
storms.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Training showers and thunderstorms could create flooding this
afternoon/evening; widespread Flood Watch in effect through
10pm

2) Cold front advances into the region tomorrow; showers and
storms south of Pittsburgh expected after 12pm

3) Above-average temperatures return Tuesday into Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
In the wake of a departing shortwave, additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop across Indiana and Ohio
before advancing east into western Pennsylvania within west-to-
east flow. Above-normal precipitable water values of 1.7 to 1.9
inches, combined with increasing instability as skies partially
clear over Ohio, will support efficient rainfall production with
rates of 2 to 5 inches per hour. These intense rainfall rates
will likely lead to flash flooding, particular long small
creeks and streams, in poor drainage locations, and across urban
areas.

High-resolution guidance, including the HREF and REFS, has
consistently highlighted a 50 to 70 percent probability of
rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance in 3 hrs. Localized
swaths of heavy rainfall could produce rapid rises along creeks
and streams, causing water to spill over banks, inundate low-
lying roadways, overwhelm drainage systems, and threaten
residual and commercial properties.

The secondary threat this afternoon would be isolated downburst
winds. Mid-level dry air entrainment may enhance downdraft
strength, allowing localized straigh-line wind gusts to reach
the surface. Icy cores would need to exceed 25kft to likely
become considered severe.

The probability of heavy rain associated with thunderstorms
decreases between 8pm and 11pm tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A cold front is expected to track through the region over the
next 24 hours from the north. Remnant moisture ahead of the
approaching cold front will support the development of isolated
showers and thunderstorms south of Pittsburgh between 12pm and
3pm on Saturday. With flow moving parallel to the cold front
(westerly), there could be some training showers and
thunderstorms that may prompt localized flooding south of I-70.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Model ensembles indicate a ridge should build eastward from the
Central CONUS through at least the middle of next week. This
should result in dry and gradually warmer weather through much
of the period with rising 500 mb heights. Highs could again
reach the lower 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

The probability of reaching major heat impacts (where it
affects anyone without cooling/hydration as well as health
systems and industries) ranges between 40 to 55% across the
region Wednesday into Friday . The elevated risk is driven by
multiple consecutive days with afternoon temperatures near 90F,
combined with overnight lows remaining around 70F, limiting
nighttime cooling and increasing cumulative heat stress.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The moist, unstable environtment with weak shortwave movement
strongly favors thunderstorm development through at least 00z, but
limited convergence zones lends to more scattered coverage that
creates difficulties in timing arrivals.  Expect very heavy rain (at
least 1"/hr rates) that results in large visibility restrictions
along with plenty of lightning and a smaller probability for gusty
winds (generally on the order of 25 to 35kts).

Storms are likely to trend downward in coverage and intensity
starting around 00z as diurnal heating wanes.  Brief VFR in the post-
storm environment then shifts toward MVFR and IFR stratus with
patchy fog due to a stagnent and moist near-surface layer; terminal
restrictions likely peak between 07z-12z.

Slow rises in stratus amid diurnal heating favored Sunday before
thunderstorms again develop (mainly south of HLG) near to after the
TAF period.

Outlook... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms favors locations south
of I-70 Sunday.  After another night of MVFR/IFR stratus/fog
potential, high pressure will portend to VFR by Sunday afternoon and
remain the dominant feature into at least the middle of next week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ001>004-012-
     021-509>514.

&&

DISCUSSION...Hefferan
AVIATION...Frazier

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1143 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-
031-073>078-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-111545-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest-
Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-
Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-
Fayette-Higher Elevations of Fayette-Indiana-
Higher Elevations of Indiana-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-
Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
1143 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western
Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

 Flood Watch for training thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Rainfall rates could range between 3-5 inches per hour in isolated
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Above-average temperatures are expected to return Tuesday under high
pressure. Heat indices will likely range from low to mid-90s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SKH

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1027 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     Flash Flood      3 N Clymer              40.71N 79.01W
07/06/2026                   Indiana            PA   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Over 25 flooded basements, Fisher Furniture
            store flooded, St Marys Public Library
            damaged from flood waters, and intersection
            of Leroy Road and SR 403 flooded with all
            lanes closed.

&&

MLB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
235 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     Flash Flood      1 NW Saint Clairsville  40.09N 80.91W
07/10/2026                   Belmont            OH   911 Call Center

            Six inches of water over Provident Road /
            State Route 9.

&&

Rackley

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
241 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     Flash Flood      4 NNE Greenville East   41.45N 80.32W
07/10/2026                   Mercer             PA   Broadcast Media

            Public video shows overland flooding along
            Methodist Road.

&&

Rackley