Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

929 
WGUS71 KPBZ 202221
FFSPBZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
521 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

PAC005-031-202231-
/O.EXP.KPBZ.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260220T2230Z/
/00000.U.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Armstrong PA-Clarion PA-
521 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR AN ICE JAM WILL EXPIRE AT 530 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWESTERN ARMSTRONG AND SOUTHWESTERN CLARION
COUNTIES...

The ice jam near Foxburg has broken therefore the flooding threat has
ended and the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 900 AM EST Saturday for
portions of northwest and western Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4114 7969 4114 7967 4111 7967 4107 7965
      4104 7965 4104 7967 4106 7967 4107 7966
      4108 7968 4111 7969

$$

MLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1227 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Winter storm watch in effect from 1am Sunday to 1am Tuesday
  for the high terrain, with extended-duration upslope snow.
- Flood watch continues for most susceptible ice-jam areas
  through 9am Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gusty winds today.

2) Ice Jam Flood Watch continues through tomorrow.

3) Winter storm likely for high terrain. Lower confidence in
snow totals elsewhere.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Areawide maximum wind gusts have started to peak in the mostly
30mph to 40mph range areawide with diurnal heating and mostly
clear skies contributing to adiabatic profiles and mixing ahead
of, along, and behind a passing cold front. Some more winds
spots at area ASOS have topped 45mph to 50mph, through because
the areal coverage of observations is expected to be limited,
opted to not expand the wind advisory at the afternoon update
given areawide average winds are likely below criteria.
Convection is absent on the cold front, so this will minimized
high end damaging wind potential. The Wind Advisory for eastern
Tucker remains through midnight tonight. Winds are most likely
to calm after sunset with the cold front well through and a
relaxation of the pressure gradient.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The Flood Watch has been extended for certain counties until
Saturday morning due to persistent ice jam problems in the Upper
Allegheny River Basin.

Current situation: As of this morning, an ice jam was confirmed near
Emlenton, PA and Foxburg, PA. Minor flooding is anticipated in the
vicinity of the jam; Flood Warning in effect through 4pm today.

Ongoing Monitoring: Due to warm temperatures today and high stream
levels from recent rainfall, continuous monitoring for new ice
jams downstream will likely be necessary over the next 24hrs.
Areas of concern include East Brady, Templeton, and Reedsdale.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A complicated interaction of a digging 500mb trough and
recurving mid-Atlantic surface low will bring area-wide snow
chances to the region Sunday through Monday. Heres what we know:

High Confidence: Accumulating, impactful snow for the high
terrain of Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Irrespective of the
mid-Atlantic low track, the digging 500mb trough, steep lapse
rates aloft through the dendritic layer and ridgetops temps
around or below freezing for the event. There was a >50% of >6"
of snow for the 48 hour period ending Monday night. Note: totals
may vary greatly from ridgetop to valley with warmer
temperatures at lower elevations.

Medium confidence: Accumulations for the lowlands. Due to a
number of factors, snow ratios in most ensemble guidance
overestimate reality, piratically for the daytime hours Sunday
(during the peak accumulation window). This is related to a
difference between snow ratios in the snow growth layer, and
ratios upon contact with the warm surface. With the NBM 10th to
90th max T spread between the mid-30s and low 40s, this spans
everything from a wetter snow to even periods of rain for the
valleys. To downtrend NBM ratios, kept 10:1 mean accumulation
through the event. Even with a most likely forecast of 1" to 3",
totals may trend lower if snow is lighter and temperatures are
warmer. Most accumulations are favored on grassy surfaces, with
chances of accumulations on untreated roads increasing Sunday
night as temperatures drop below freezing.

Low Confidence: Snow totals may trend higher in the mid-
Atlantic low curves inland as a Nor- easter (though most of this
uncertainty is east of Pittsburgh). The most likely scenario
(80% chance) is that the Mid-Atlantic low influence stays south
and has little effect on area snow totals. In the low
probability event that this trends west, big snows remain
possible east of Pittsburgh and into the high terrain (long,
high-end tail on the snowfall distribution). In the prefect
scenario where the low trends west AND a frontogenetical band
forms on the western periphery of the low, up to 6 to 10" is
entirely possible for the lowlands east of Pittsburgh, with up
to 15" to 20" for the high terrain. Again, this is a low-
probability but high-impact scenario that will need to continue
to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty wind today after the passage of a cold front
- VFR returning W-E this morning
- MVFR returns for much of the area tonight

------------------------------------------------------------

Clearing should continue to occur from W-E through this
afternoon following the passage of a cold front. Rapid pressure
rises and mixing in the clearing should result in gusty W-SW
wind today, up to 35 kt. MVFR should return for airports north
of a ZZV to LBE line in cold advection, and with moisture below
a temperature inversion.

MVFR cigs should continue tonight with a weak crossing
shortwave. This wave could result in a few snow showers at FKL
and DUJ as well. Wind gusts should gradually diminish overnight
as the surface pressure gradient relaxes as surface high
pressure begins to build in.

Outlook...
Widespread, light snow is expected late Saturday night through
Monday with a crossing upper low. Probabilities favor a 1-3
inch snowfall outside of the ridges. VFR should gradually return
Tuesday as high pressure begins to build in.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for PAZ008-009-014>016-
     022.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through late
     Monday night for PAZ074-076.
OH...None.
WV...Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through late
     Monday night for WVZ510>514.
     Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for WVZ514.

&&

DISCUSSION...Hefferan/Milcarek
AVIATION...WM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1233 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007-013-020-021-029-031-073-
075-077-078-WVZ001>004-012-021-509-211745-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Lawrence-Beaver-
Allegheny-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Fayette-Indiana-
Higher Elevations of Indiana-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-
Marion-Monongalia-
1233 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western
Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Gusty winds taper this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Minor snow impacts are expected Sunday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ008-009-014>016-022-211745-
Venango-Forest-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Armstrong-
1233 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania and
western Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Gusty winds taper this evening.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

 	Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Minor snow impacts are expected Sunday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ074-076-WVZ510>513-211745-
Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Fayette-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-
1233 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Pennsylvania and
northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Gusty winds taper this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

WVZ514-211745-
Eastern Tucker-
1233 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Milcarek

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1216 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 E Pleasant Grove      39.95N 81.90W
02/20/2026  M51 MPH          Muskingum          OH   ASOS

            ASOS station KZZV Zanesville Airport.

1145 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 NE Clearview          40.17N 80.65W
02/20/2026  M48 MPH          Ohio               WV   ASOS

            ASOS station KHLG Wheeling Airport.

1145 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 W Mccandless Townshi  40.59N 80.05W
02/20/2026  M46 MPH          Allegheny          PA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station GW3644 Pittsburgh.

1147 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 SSW Lawson Heights    40.27N 79.40W
02/20/2026  M46 MPH          Westmoreland       PA   AWOS

            AWOS station KLBE Latrobe Airport.

1149 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 SSE Cameron           39.78N 80.55W
02/20/2026  M45 MPH          Marshall           WV   Mesonet

            Mesonet station GW4620 Cameron.

&&

WM