Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
150 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Flood Watch remains in effect but the primary area of
concern is shifting southward along the departing front. Flood
concerns will be highest this afternoon and evening across
areas that previously saw heavy rain this morning such as
Marion, Preston and Tucker Counties in WV.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Flood Watch in effect through 10pm tonight as
showers/thunderstorms producing heavy rain may result in flash
flooding.

2) Dry and seasonable weather conditions favored Thursday
through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The quasi-stationary front that has plagued the region for a
little while is on its march back south today. The front is
currently draped near I-70 and will slowly move southward
through the afternoon and evening, clearing our region after
sunset. Along and south of the front, showers and storms will
continue to pop up this afternoon and evening. These showers and
storms can continue to bring a heavy rain and flood threat
across the region.

Our 12z sounding showed a PWAT of 1.62 inches, which is above
the daily max climatology. According to the latest SFC analysis,
these higher PWATs have shifted southward already and the
threat for heavy rain will follow them shortly. Upwind
propagation vectors are not overly fast and are largely parallel
to the front itself, supporting training of storms like we
previously saw in Tucker County earlier this morning. As the
front sags back southward, heavy rainfall is expected across
areas that already saw between 0.50-1.00 inches and as high as
2.00 inches (in Preston and Tucker Counties) of rainfall from
activity overnight and this morning. Additional rounds of
rainfall on these sensitive areas will locally heighten flood
concerns, largely across portions of northern WV, where there
remains a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall per WPC. Flash Flood
Guidance remains around 1.10 to 1.25 inches but these values
may no longer be representative in areas where we saw heavy rain
this morning. The previous Flood Watch remains in effect
through 10pm this evening.

Areas of clearing south of the front are allowing for some
heating to occur across northern WV slowly increasing the
available CAPE. This in tandem with the lift along the front as
it moves south should support thunderstorm development. The
primary concern for this remains heavy rain, especially if these
develop over areas where we have already seen heavy rain today
(Marion, Preston and Tucker Counties). A secondary threat in
this activity is for heavier thunderstorms. A Marginal Risk for
Severe Thunderstorms sits largely along and south of the Mason-
Dixon Line with an embedded Slight Risk area just touching
Tucker and Preston Counties. The convective environment for
storms isn't the best we have seen with weak low level shear,
largely mediocre moist adiabatic lapse rates and a need for more
ample CAPE, demanding more heating. Still, there is a lower end
risk for a heavy thunderstorm or two in northern WV this
afternoon and evening.

All of this activity is shunted southward this evening as a dry
cold front moves southward across the region chased by high
pressure.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Behind the cold front, dry and cooler high pressure settles
across the region late this week and this weekend. Ensembles
still show some variation in conditions between a trough dug
into the Canadian Maritimes, a warm and wet airmass over the SE
CONUS and the large amplitude central CONUS ridge. However, the
most likely scenario keeps us on the eastern fringe of the ridge
in a northwest flow regime promoting drier and cooler weather
late week through the weekend. Ensembles show the possibility
for a couple of shortwaves to round the Canadian trough but POPs
look rather low. No impacts are expected through this
timeframe. The next chance for rain looks to be early to middle
of next week as we get more troughing to settle across the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR prevails across the area this afternoon except in scattered
showers and thunderstorms primarily south of I-70, where
occasional dips to IFR/LIFR will be possible during instances of
heavier rain. This activity shifts to the southeast of the area
late this evening, giving way to dry weather through the rest of
the forecast period. Fog and low stratus development is possible
across northern WV late tonight into early Thursday morning as
moisture remains trapped near the surface even after rain
departs. However, with the onset of heating/mixing under
clearing skies on Thursday, a quick return to VFR is expected
after sunrise.

Winds remain light and variable through the evening, then become
better established out of the north or northwest overnight into
Thursday with occasional gusts to around 20 knots Thursday
afternoon.

Outlook...
Areawide VFR and dry weather expected Thursday into early next
week under high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ029-031-075-
     076.
OH...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ057>059-068-
     069.
WV...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ003-004-012-
     021-509>514.

&&

DISCUSSION...Shallenberger/AK
AVIATION...Cermak

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1101 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1021 AM     Flash Flood      3 W Parsons             39.09N 79.73W
05/27/2026                   Tucker             WV   911 Call Center

            High water along US 219 has closed the
            roadway in both directions.

&&

AK

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