Tornado Warning 91, NWS Paducah, KY

664 
WWUS53 KPAH 200537
SVSPAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

ILC003-KYC039-MOC133-200547-
/O.CAN.KPAH.TO.W.0091.000000T0000Z-260820T0600Z/
Alexander IL-Carlisle KY-Mississippi MO-
1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...TORNADO WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALEXANDER, NORTH
CENTRAL CARLISLE AND NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES...

The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been
cancelled. However, large hail and damaging winds remain likely and a
Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
portions of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3693 8905 3694 8905 3693 8906 3694 8909
      3695 8909 3694 8910 3696 8910 3698 8911
      3705 8908 3703 8894 3693 8897 3692 8898
      3692 8900 3693 8901 3692 8901 3692 8903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0531Z 283DEG 20KT 3701 8915

$$


KYC007-200600-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0091.000000T0000Z-260820T0600Z/
Ballard KY-
1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
BALLARD COUNTY...

At 1237 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Wickliffe, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
  Wickliffe and Blandville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built building
away from windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a
vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself
from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3693 8905 3694 8905 3693 8906 3694 8909
      3695 8909 3694 8910 3696 8910 3698 8911
      3705 8908 3703 8894 3693 8897 3692 8898
      3692 8900 3693 8901 3692 8901 3692 8903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0531Z 284DEG 24KT 3699 8909

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

$$

DW

348 
WWUS53 KPAH 200544
SVSPAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1244 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

KYC007-200554-
/O.CAN.KPAH.TO.W.0091.000000T0000Z-260820T0600Z/
Ballard KY-
1244 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...TORNADO WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHWESTERN BALLARD COUNTY...

The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been
cancelled. However, large hail and damaging winds remain likely and a
Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for a
portion of western Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3693 8905 3694 8905 3693 8906 3694 8909
      3695 8909 3694 8910 3696 8910 3698 8911
      3705 8908 3703 8894 3693 8897 3692 8898
      3692 8900 3693 8901 3692 8901 3692 8903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0537Z 284DEG 24KT 3698 8904

$$

DW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
629 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of thunderstorms is expected this evening and
  possibly into the overnight hours. Some of the storms could be
  severe with damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes.

- A small (15-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms is
  forecast Thursday afternoon, and other small chances are
  sprinkled in through the weekend and into next week.

- Temperatures will generally be a few degrees below normal
  through the next 7 days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Well, today's convection has lingered longer over more of the
Quad State than expected, and the complete lack of warming
certainly is concerning for the possibility of any significant
severe storms this evening or overnight. There is still a strong
north or northeasterly push at the surface to the south over
southern Tennessee and eastern Arkansas, so the better airmass
will not have much time to get back north over the Quad State.
Therefore, the CAPE forecasts for this evening are likely
overdone. The shear will be there, but if we struggle to get
surface-based convection, much of it may not be realized.

The CAMs have not had a clue about today's convection, so it
would be dangerous to accept their solutions for tonight.
However, they have been consistently hammering on the 6-8 PM
period for storms to reach far northwestern portions of the Quad
State, with the northern extent over Perry and Jackson Counties
in Illinois. Storms would then move east southeast across the
region generally south of a Duquoin Illinois to Greenville
Kentucky line. Northeast of this line storms cannot be ruled
out, but given that that area will be farther from the better
surface air mass, severe storms are much less likely. There is
some sign of storms developing along I-64 into the overnight
hours. Those storms would move east southeast and dissipate by
sunrise over the Tri State.

If severe storms develop it would most likely be over Southeast
Missouri where air mass recovery would presumably be most
likely. The CAPE and shear space advertised by the CAMs would
support all modes of severe, but there has been a strong
tendency for bow echoes in the models with a more significant
damaging wind threat. If a west northwest to east southeast
boundary develops on the northeast edge of the better airmass, a
greater tornado threat could develop along it. Once again this
appears to be most likely over southeast Missouri, possibly into
the Purchase Area of west Kentucky.

The timing for tonight could be delayed a few hours which would
allow more time for air mass recovery, so it will not be
surprising if storms don't reach the area until 9 PM or later
and then possibly last til around 2 or 3 AM before exiting west
Kentucky depending on how far northeast the better air mass
makes it.

The storms tonight should move along at a good clip, but we will
have to watch for swaths of torrential rains and possibly
flooding impacts. This morning's storms produced a swath of 2-3"
over Sikeston Missouri and northeast into Wayne and Bollinger
counties. This area will be quite susceptible to flash flooding
with any storms tonight.

The convection should be done by daybreak Thursday, but an
upper-level trough over the Quad State will keep a small chance
of showers and storms going Thursday afternoon. Behind this
trough, we will remain under a somewhat busy cyclonic northwest
flow aloft. This will bring the possibility of some convection
attempting to dive southeast over the Quad State over the
weekend and into the first half of next week. The models are not
handling individual disturbances very well, which results in the
NBM spreading a lot of 15-30% PoPs across portions of the region
from Friday night through next Wednesday. At least the northwest
flow aloft will keep temperatures at or below normal for late
August, which is quite welcome after last week's heat wave.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Convection will develop to our west and move into the region
later this evening and continue overnight. Vsby and cig
restrictions are expected especially in the heavier activity.
Strong wind gusts are also possible, with KCGI/KPAH the most
likely terminals to be impacted by them. Convection should taper
off from west to east early Thursday morning. There is a high
probability (70-90% chance) of at least low MVFR cigs
(potentially IFR for a period) moving into the northern half of
the region after 09-10z and lingering through the morning.
Improvement to VFR levels may not be until early or mid
afternoon for KEVV/KOWB. Confidence isn't as high further south,
but went ahead and included lower cig mention in the morning
for now.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...SP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
856 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-210200-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
856 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026 /956 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to move east
southeast across the Quad State through the night. Severe storms
with damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will be
possible, mainly to the south of a DuQuoin Illinois to Greenville
Kentucky line.

A swath of very heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding concerns
overnight. Refer to the Flood Watch for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Small chances of thunderstorms are forecast Thursday afternoon,
and then off and on from Friday night through Tuesday. Brief heavy
downpours and lightning would be the primary concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening and into part of the
overnight.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1207 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1207 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 N Mayfield            36.77N 88.64W
08/20/2026  M65 MPH          Graves             KY   Public

            Home weather station peak gust.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1214 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1213 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SW Folsomdale         36.88N 88.69W
08/20/2026                   Graves             KY   Public

            Tree fallen on a home. No injuries.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1215 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1214 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 W Blandville          36.93N 89.00W
08/20/2026                   Ballard            KY   Public

            Tree limbs down and brief power outage.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1217 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     0 SW Cunningham         36.91N 88.89W
08/20/2026                   Carlisle           KY   Public

            Large trees down on house and vehicle.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1222 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1222 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SE Lovelaceville      36.93N 88.81W
08/20/2026                   Graves             KY   Utility Company

            Numerous power outages reported across
            multiple counties.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1227 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1213 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 E Tanner              36.92N 89.63W
08/20/2026                   Scott              MO   Trained Spotter

&&