Tornado Warning 85, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
307 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme heat and humidity will continue through the weekend.
  The Heat Advisory has been upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning
  Thursday through Sunday. High temperatures in the 95-100
  degree range and heat index values in the 105-112 range are
  expected.

- A 20-50% chance of thunderstorm is forecast this afternoon,
  mainly for the Evansville Tri State area, where a few severe
  thunderstorms with damaging winds and tornadoes will be
  possible. Localized heavy rainfall will also be possible. A
  20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue
  through most of the Quad State tonight.

- Somewhat less hot and humid conditions are expected the first
  half of next week, as small chances of showers and
  thunderstorms return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Colliding outflow boundaries over southwest Indiana will be a
focus for potentially severe thunderstorms this afternoon. One
outflow boundary will continue to push south through the I-64
corridor, while another one extends south southeast from Gibson
county through eastern Daviess county. This boundary may be more
stationary or drift slightly to the east through the afternoon.
With at least moderate instability and considerable downdraft
CAPE, damaging winds will be the primary severe concern this
afternoon. However, a tornado threat will exist near the
intersection of the two boundaries which is approaching the
White River. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 577 is in effect for most
of the Evansville Tri State through 8 PM.

Farther southwest, a few showers have developed over southern
portions of southeast Missouri. These showers are not expected
to be terribly long-lived or intense, but a few lightning
strikes will be possible.

More showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight into
early Thursday morning once again mainly over the Tri State. A
few stronger storms cannot be ruled out, but severe weather is
not expected.

The upper level ridge will gradually build over the Quad State
through Saturday and linger into Sunday before dropping back to
the south for early next week. Today is the 4th day of 105 heat
indices over much of southeast Missouri and adjacent portions of
southern Illinois and west Kentucky, and tomorrow will be the
4th day for the rest of the Quad State. Therefore, with 105+
heat indices expected Thursday through Sunday, we have upgraded
the Advisory to a Warning beginning at 11 AM Thursday and have
extended it through 8 PM Sunday.

Through Sunday, temperatures are expected to trend upward
through the upper 90s, as dewpoints trend a bit lower each day.
So, it is possible we see some triple digit temperatures over
the weekend, while heat indices may struggle to climb above 105.
Regardless, this will be at least a week long extreme heat
event, so the Warning will be worthwhile even if a few locations
don't quite reach 105 over the weekend.

The upper ridge retreats to the south early next week, but
southern portions of the Quad State could still see high
temperatures in the middle 90s and heat indices may reach the
triple digits again Monday. Highs will remain above normal,
albeit in the lower and middle 90s through Wednesday.

Precipitation chances will come in from the north late Sunday
night and especially Monday afternoon. Intermittent 15% PoPs
will then linger through Tuesday and into Wednesday. Confidence
in coverage and timing of precipitation early next week is very
low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Southwest winds will gust 15-20kts at times this afternoon. The
primary window for convection will be this evening, mainly over
KEVV and KOWB, but there are lesser chances farther west and
south through the overnight. Convection will pose a threat of
strong wind gusts. Some fog formation will be possible
overnight through sunrise. For now just mentioned it at KMVN
where winds will be the lightest. South winds should return at
all sites with mixing in the morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 11 AM CDT Thursday for ILZ075>078-081>094.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Thursday to 8 PM CDT Sunday
     for ILZ075>078-081>094.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ080.
MO...Heat Advisory until 11 AM CDT Thursday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Thursday to 8 PM CDT Sunday
     for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 11 AM CDT /noon EDT/ Thursday for INZ081-
     082-085>088.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM CDT /noon EDT/ Thursday to 8
    PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 11 AM CDT Thursday for KYZ001>022.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Thursday to 8 PM CDT Sunday
     for KYZ001>022.

&&

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
312 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-130815-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
312 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 /412 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Heat Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect. Refer
to the statement for more details.

Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening.
Damaging winds is the main concern; however, localized flash
flooding and a brief tornado or two are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A few strong to severe storms will be possible Thursday, with
damaging winds as the main severe weather threat.

Heat index values will remain elevated, in the 105-110 degree
range for Friday through Sunday. Headlines will likely need to be
extended or upgraded over the weekend.

A Heat Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through
Friday. Refer to the statement for more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.