Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1245 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms can be
  expected this morning (40-80% chances), with slightly lower
  chances (30-55%) from midday into early this evening. Large
  hail will be possible with these storms.

- Scattered showers and storms return Friday afternoon (30-40%
  chances), then chances will increase significantly late
  Friday night into Saturday (70-85% chances) with the approach
  and passage of a cold front.

- High temperatures will be near record readings Friday ahead
  of the cold front.

- A significant cool down is expected over the weekend, then we
  will see a warming trend next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Scattered thunderstorms are developing over south central
Missouri this afternoon just ahead of a shortwave trough
embedded in the broader flow over western Missouri. These storms
are on the edge of an area of richer lower level moisture with
dewpoints in the mid 60s. The position and strength of the upper
trough are yielding 3-6km lapse rates around 7 to 7.5 degC. Deep
layer shear is sufficient at about 30 to 35 kts and should
improve some through the afternoon. MLCAPEs are around 2000 to
2500 J/kg. This looks like a pretty favorable setup for hail,
and fairly modest looking radar presentations have already
produced hail with activity starting over MO. Low-level
thermodynamics are also supportive of some wind damage/downburst
potential with stronger storms. Generally expecting storms to
increase in coverage and intensity over the next couple hours
and bring a few hours threat of severe storms (wind/hail) mainly
over southeast Missouri and western Kentucky this afternoon.

Another trough moving in from the west brings lower end
rain/storm chances in the afternoon tomorrow but better chances
overnight into Saturday morning. Right now the peak of activity
is progged to move in early Saturday morning at relative minima
for heating which may limit severe weather potential but deep
and low layer shear is strong enough we will need to continue to
monitor for any thermodynamic changes that might increase our
chances.

A cold front moves in behind the storms Saturday sweeping in
more seasonable air. Cooler temperatures persist through the
middle of the week before things start to warm up as we approach
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Primary flight impediment today will be convection forecast to
develop over the next few hours in southcentral Missouri and
track at least close to CGI/PAH in the afternoon. Conditions are
more favorable than normal for hail today and that and gusty
winds could accompany IFR visibilities in stronger storms. VFR
conditions with fairly light winds are forecast once the storms
clear out.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1246 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-171800-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-White-
Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-Hardin-
Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-Warrick-
Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-Livingston-
Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-Union KY-Webster-
Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-
Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-
Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
1246 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 /146 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Illinois, southwest
Indiana, western Kentucky and southeast Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. Large hail and
isolated gusty winds will be possible with these storms as they move
southeast mainly over southeast Missouri and western Kentucky.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast Friday afternoon and
especially Friday night. There is a marginal risk of severe
storms Friday evening and overnight across portions of southern
Illinois and southeast Missouri, mainly northwest of a line from
Mount Carmel to Marion Illinois, to Cape Girardeau and Poplar
Bluff.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed over parts of the area this
afternoon.

JGG