Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms expected later today, especially
  tonight, lingering into Monday; localized flooding heavy
  rainfall and strong to severe storms will be possible.

- Cooler and mostly drier conditions return Tuesday, before
  scattered storms re-enter the forecast later in the week
  heading into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The complex of storms marching across MO will push our
northern/western reaches this afternoon. MUCAPEs will be making
their way into 4 digits, despite incoming clouds retarding the
diurnal rise. Dew points already into the lower 70s across our
south will solidify their ground over the entirety of the FA
this pm. Bulk shear and lapse rates similarly improve with the
system's approach, so any PM storm does show strong-svr potential.
However, the track of this driving low looks primarily to be to
our north, and the main first threat looks to follow its track.

Our best best for more robust/widespread storms comes later,
into the 00z-06z time frame, as the 2ndary wave develops and
rides along the boundary. By then, the upper shear profiles have
peaked, and helicity picks up, at least along the boundary/in
the vicinity of the wave's track, which dives southeastward into
the lower Ohio Valley. Expect an all hazards severe mode with
this wave, and in addition, near 2" PW's with E-SAT's showing
10-30 year Return Intervals suggest an efficiency to heavy rain
producing storms that if they train/repeat over the same areas,
could enhance storm average forecast total signals of around an
inch, to localized totals 2-3x higher. We'll therefore continue
the Flood Watch in our peak threat areas north for now, with
collaborative efforts driving any southward expansion.

Storms linger along/in advance of the boundary into Monday as
it moves eastward and southward coincident with the low's track
up the Ohio valley, which ultimately winds pops down with
relatively cooler/drier air coming in its place by Tuesday. Pops
start to pick up again later in the week, esp into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Storm chances increase thru the TAF forecast period, with
restrictions to CIGS/VSBYS increasing with pops. Peak
restrictions will be this evening/overnight, when stronger
storms may drive Instrument Flight Rules at times. South winds
shift to northwest upon system passage late tonight/early tmrw,
as low end MVFR to potentially IFR based CIGS prevail. They
should gradually disperse as pops complete their diminishing
from the forecast area thru the planning phase hours of the
forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075-081-
     085.
     Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Monday
     morning for ILZ075>078-080>083.
MO...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ100.
IN...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT /2 PM EDT/ this afternoon through
     Monday morning for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ007>009-
     011-012.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
316 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-221215-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
316 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 /416 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Numerous thunderstorms are expected throughout the Quad State
today. Severe storms with damaging winds, large hail, and even a
few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening. Heavy
rainfall will be a concern for the entire period.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorms are expected to continue through Monday mainly
across the south and southeast, with heavy rainfall the main
concern.

An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out over southeast
Missouri Tuesday night and expanding across the area on Wednesday.
More scattered thunderstorm activity is possible Thursday
afternoon and into the overnight. Better chances of storms return
Friday and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
829 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E Lynnville           38.20N 87.30W
06/21/2026                   Warrick            IN   Emergency Mngr

            Multiple trees and powerlines down in
            Lynnville. Possible tornado.

&&

ATL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
832 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0819 PM     Tornado          2 N Dale                38.19N 86.98W
06/21/2026                   Spencer            IN   Storm Chaser

            Reported near I-64 and US 231.

&&

DWS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
833 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     Funnel Cloud     3 N Saint Johns         38.07N 89.24W
06/21/2026                   Perry              IL   Trained Spotter

            Funnel cloud reported north of Du Quoin by
            trained spotter.

&&

AZ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
906 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     Tornado          5 NE Enfield            38.15N 88.27W
06/21/2026                   White              IL   Storm Chaser

            Brief tornado about 5 miles northeast of
            Enfield.

0850 PM     Funnel Cloud     4 ESE Springerton       38.15N 88.30W
06/21/2026                   White              IL   Emergency Mngr

            Several funnels reported near Enfield.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
909 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 N Melody Hill         38.05N 87.52W
06/21/2026  M51 MPH          Vanderburgh        IN   ASOS

            ASOS station KEVV Evansville IN.

&&

DWS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
918 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0917 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 E Evansville          37.98N 87.48W
06/21/2026                   Vanderburgh        IN   Public

            Large power flash east of downtown
            Evansville, IN posted on X from Evansville
            traffic cam.

&&

AZ