Flash Flood Warning 57, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
628 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms continues late
  this afternoon into tonight. The main severe hazard is
  damaging winds, with a heavy rain hazard capable of localized
  flooding.

- There is a similar, lingering, albeit smaller marginal risk
  (level 1 of 5) of severe storms late Friday into Friday night,
  then again Saturday into Saturday night.

- Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall are possible into and
  through the weekend; a Flood Watch is in effect. 1 to 3
  inches cumulative rainfall is forecast on average, but locally
  higher amounts twice that or more are possible if and where
  storms repeat over the same areas.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

As the near term environment becomes increasingly warm and
unstable, expect an approaching short wave this evening to touch
off/expand our storm threat. The latest CAM modeling suggests it
might be moreso in the evening vs the late pm, but cannot rule
out earlier development entirely. The wave brings increased
shear and steepening lapse rates aloft, so the slight risk svr
continues with damaging winds the main such hazard. Localized
flooding will be possible from heavy rains, esp if they can
train over the same areas.

The aforementioned wave lingers activity into Friday morning,
then there is a relative wane before another similar looking
wave touches off convection late Friday into Friday night. Rinse
and repeat for Saturday into Saturday night. Any of these
storms will have just enough shear to work with from their
parent driving wave(s) to keep a marginal risk of severe storms
for damaging winds, while the continuing heavy rain hazard only
heightens the localized flooding potential based upon repeat or
training storms dumping high PW rainfall over the same areas.
While we have 1-3" in the storm average cumulative rainfall
forecast generally speaking, there is potential for localized
higher amounts twice or more that, esp if they can repeat over
the same areas...the Flood Watch continues.

We'll have to monitor daily storm chances into early next week,
as the models get a little muddier with when/where they set up
the broader synoptic scale ridge; this should eventually serve
to stop our daily chances and heat us up a little. For now,
we're looking at by mid week seeing its drying/warming impacts
with highs more regularly pushing 90F again.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the Quad
State this evening, with greater frequency expected over
Southeast Missouri. Some of these storms may be strong to
severe. Vsby drops accompany thunderstorms and heavy rain, and
cigs drop to MVFR, at least in the northeastern half. Continued
shower/storm activity remains overnight but diminishes early
morning. Isolated-scattered shower/storm activity returns during
the afternoon. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be around
3-5kts tonight, increasing to 7-9 kts out of the southwest for
Friday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for KYZ001>022.

&&

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...ATL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-101000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 /130 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe storms late this afternoon into
tonight. Damaging winds is the primary severe hazard, but an
isolated tornado and large hail cannot be ruled out. Heavy rain
will bring a risk of localized flooding, especially if and where
storms can repeat over the same areas. A Flood Watch is in effect,
refer to the Watch for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorm chances continue daily into and through the weekend.
Some of the storms Friday through Saturday could be strong to
severe, with heavy rains providing a localized flooding threat,
especially if and where they repeat over the same areas. A Flood
Watch continues through Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed, stay abreast of the latest
updates and forecasts.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
847 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ENE Charleston        36.92N 89.33W
07/09/2026                   Mississippi        MO   Public

            Tree down across S Gilmore Ave.

&&

ATL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
854 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Grandview               37.94N 86.98W
07/09/2026                   Spencer            IN   Law Enforcement

            Multiple trees were downed in Spencer
            County, with reports mainly coming from
            Grandview.

&&

ATL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
855 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 PM     Flood            1 NNW Benton            36.87N 88.37W
07/09/2026                   Marshall           KY   Public

            Water over Highway 348 in several places
            around Benton.

&&

DRS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
903 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 W West Salem          38.52N 88.02W
07/09/2026                   Edwards            IL   Law Enforcement

            A tree was downed on County Rd 700 E. A
            powerline was downed in West Salem.

&&

ATL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
913 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Grandview               37.94N 86.98W
07/09/2026                   Spencer            IN   Broadcast Media

            A large barn collapsed due to thunderstorm
            winds in Grandview.

&&

ATL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1010 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

ILZ092-093-KYZ003-004-MOZ087-111-112-100400-
Alexander IL-Pulaski IL-Carlisle KY-Ballard KY-Cape Girardeau MO-
Scott MO-Mississippi MO-
1010 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PULASKI...ALEXANDER...CENTRAL
CARLISLE...WESTERN BALLARD...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SCOTT AND
SOUTHEASTERN CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 PM CDT...

At 1010 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Scott City to near Horseshoe Lake
Conservation Area. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cape Girardeau, Charleston, Scott City, Chaffee, Cairo, La Center,
Benton, Bardwell, Wickliffe, Bertrand, Mounds, Morley, Barlow, Tamms,
Mound City, Kelso, Gordonville, Wyatt, Dutchtown, and Cape Girardeau
Airport.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 57 in Illinois between Mile Markers 1 and 18.
 Interstate 57 in Missouri between Mile Markers 6 and 21.
 Interstate 55 between Mile Markers 70 and 96.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southern Illinois...western Kentucky...and southeastern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3727 8903 3684 8892 3692 8957 3731 8969
TIME...MOT...LOC 0310Z 285DEG 29KT 3723 8949 3703 8930

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DW