Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
139 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous showers and thunderstorms will impact the region this
  afternoon. Severe storms are possible with damaging winds
  the greatest threat. There remains a concern for significant
  flash flooding with very efficient rainfall rates falling on
  top of already saturated soils.

- Additional scattered showers and storms are possible overnight
  into early Sunday morning before pushing east of the region.
  Severe storms are unlikely with this round but flash flooding
  remains a serious concern.

- Dangerous heat and humidity build into the region Sunday and
  continue through the coming week. Heat indices up to 105 are
  expected on Sunday afternoon and between 105 and 110 Monday
  through Thursday. This heatwave may linger through the 4th of
  July holiday weekend, although confidence is lower.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

An MCV moving out of southeast Missouri is leading to convection
ticking up in intensity this afternoon. The airmass ahead of it is
characterized by 2500 j/kg of MLCAPE along with extremely high low
level moisture (dew points in the 75-80 range). A shortwave
progressing across southern MO is resulting in some enhancement of
the mid level shear, with 0-6km shear values of 25 to 35 kts
(strongest behind this initial MCV). Low level shear isn't that
great (around 15 kts), but it's enough to possibly get a spin up or
two. Main threat looks to be damaging winds as convection progresses
east across far southern IL and west KY.

Significant flash flooding remains a concern with storms producing
very intense rainfall rates falling on top of already saturated
soils. Pockets of 3-6" have occurred along with localized totals of
6-10" in part of southwest Indiana. Could see up to an inch within
15-20 minutes and hourly rates in excess of 2". Pwats are in the 2
to 2.2" range. After a lull mid to late evening, CAMS indicate
additional convection bubbling up along the residual boundary
overnight into early Sunday morning. This would pose an additional
flash flooding threat. Not overly concerned about severe
storms overnight, but they can't be ruled out.

A 594-597dm ridge starts to build into the region on Sunday,
expanding further Monday through mid week. High temperatures will
reach the low to mid 90s each day through at least Thursday, coupled
with dew points in the mid to upper 70s, to produce heat index
readings reaching 105 to 110 on a daily basis. Lingering cloud cover
on Sunday may hold temperatures back some in the north and east, so
these areas may only reach about 100 on the heat index. However, for
simplicity sake went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory for entire
area. Thereafter, an Extreme Heat Watch is in effect through
Thursday for heat index readings of 105 to 110. After only
experiencing 2 days reaching 90 so far in Paducah (tied with 2003
for fewest through June 27th), summer is about to kick into full
gear.

Guidance is hinting at the heatwave lingering through the 4th of
July weekend, although there also seems to be some weakening of the
ridge that may allow some convection to develop. So it's possible
the heat gets turned down a notch, maybe only highs around 90 and
heat index readings in the low 100s (more typical summer-time
levels).

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Scattered to numerous convection will impact the region this
afternoon. Coverage will wane this evening, but additional
activity may develop overnight with KEVV/KOWB most likely to see
development into early Sunday morning. Cig/vsby restrictions
expected with any convection, occasionally dropping to IFR or
lower. May also have some strong winds associated with the
stronger convection. Guidance is also hinting at lower cigs
working into our northeast terminals late tonight into Sunday
morning and can't rule out some fog in areas that clear out
overnight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-080>094.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Thursday
     evening for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Flood Watch until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Thursday
     evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Flood Watch until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ this evening for INZ081-
     082-085>088.
     Heat Advisory from noon CDT /1 PM EDT/ to 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/
     Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Thursday
     evening for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Flood Watch until 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ001>022.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Thursday
     evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
106 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-281815-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
106 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 /206 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Numerous thunderstorms will move across the region this afternoon.
Severe storms are possible, with damaging winds the main threat. A
tornado or two is possible. Additional isolated storms are
possible this evening and overnight, but severe storms are not
anticipated with this round.

A Flood Watch remains in effect through tonight with a heightened
threat for flash flooding due to torrential rainfall falling on
already saturated soils.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Dangerous heat and humidity is forecast Sunday through much of
next week. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Sunday and an Extreme
Heat Watch is in effect for Monday through Thursday. Refer to the
products for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this afternoon. Any reports are
greatly appreciated.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1052 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 NNW Philpot           37.80N 87.03W
06/27/2026                   Daviess            KY   NWS Employee

            Trees down at Yellow Creek Park. Time
            estimated by radar.

&&

DWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1138 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

MOZ086-087-110-111-271730-
Stoddard MO-Bollinger MO-Cape Girardeau MO-Scott MO-
1138 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BOLLINGER...NORTHWESTERN SCOTT...
CAPE GIRARDEAU AND NORTH CENTRAL STODDARD COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM
CDT...

At 1138 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Grassy to 8 miles west of Advance. Movement was
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and torrential rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cape Girardeau, Jackson, Scott City, Chaffee, Marble Hill, Advance,
Bollinger Mill State Historic Site, Trail Of Tears State Park, Kelso,
Delta, Gordonville, Dutchtown, Millersville, Leopold, Cape Girardeau
Airport, Burfordville, Grassy, Oak Ridge, Whitewater, and Zalma.

This includes Interstate 55 between Mile Markers 84 and 112.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 9011 3709 9013 3731 9021 3731 9015
      3736 9014 3757 8955 3757 8952 3750 8950
      3740 8942 3735 8943 3734 8948 3729 8952
      3725 8949 3725 8946 3721 8947 3714 8943
      3702 9010
TIME...MOT...LOC 1638Z 251DEG 36KT 3728 9014 3711 9007

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JGG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1202 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1201 PM     Flash Flood      Hazleton                38.49N 87.54W
06/27/2026                   Gibson             IN   Emergency Mngr

            Several roads washed out or flooded near and
            south of Hazelton. Event total rainfall
            amounts of 9 to 10 inches measured.

&&

DWS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1244 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1234 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 WNW Scott City        37.23N 89.58W
06/27/2026  M53 MPH          Scott              MO   ASOS

            ASOS station KCGI Cape Girardeau MO.

&&

DWS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
112 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0103 PM     Flash Flood      1 SW Scott City         37.21N 89.55W
06/27/2026                   Scott              MO   Public

            Public reports flash flooding of streets in
            Scott City.

&&

DWS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
121 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1234 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Cape Girardeau          37.31N 89.55W
06/27/2026                   Cape Girardeau     MO   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Several small tree limbs down in Cape
            Girardeau.

&&

DWS