Tornado Warning 61, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1249 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- Severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon across southern
  Oklahoma and western north Texas, with very large hail and a low
  tornado risk.

- A widespread round of rain is expected Thursday into Friday, but
  could be limited to locations along and south of I-40.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

The rather widespread convective activity this morning makes for a
complex forecast this afternoon. Early indications were that we
would see rather aggressive wiping of atmospheric moisture behind
any morning convection. However, OK Mesonet observations show low-
70s dewpoints and at least weak surface southerlies back into
Jefferson/Love/Carter Counties. With that in mind, and with skies
clearing out behind the morning convection, surface-based convection
initiation looks likely this afternoon along the frontal zone of
southern Oklahoma/adjacent north Texas.

RAP forecast soundings suggest MLCAPE in excess of 3,000 J/kg along
and just south of the frontal boundary by midafternoon. Combined
with about 80 knots of cloud-layer shear, very large hail will be
possible with any initial supercell-type structures. The tornado
risk will be extant with any storms early and interacting with the
boundary, particularly with the extreme boundary-layer moisture
leading to 100-150 J/kg of 0-3 km instability. However, two factors
should limit the tornado risk: generally weak low-level shear with
no appreciable LLJ and veered surface winds, as well as a tendency
for the front to sink southeast in the afternoon and undercut any
convection immediately along it. A transition to more of a severe
wind risk over far southeast Oklahoma looks probable as storm cold
pools merge in the extremely unstable environment.

Convection will press south and east of our area by late evening as
the cold front continues southward. For those of us well behind the
front, it will be a cool day with low cloud cover struggling to thin
out.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Large-scale troughing moves into the Great Lakes during the day
tomorrow. Despite the continued activity of the subtropical jet, the
large-scale troughing will dominate the surface pattern, promoting
pressure rises and northerly surface winds. Because of that, it will
feel like a beautiful spring day, especially across the northern
half of the area where the sun is expected to come out in the
afternoon. Highs will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s.

The active southern stream will last into Thursday and presage a
return to southeasterly 850 mb winds. Given the suppression of the
surface warm sector, this does not pose a risk of surface-based
convection, but rather a chance for a widespread area of isentropic
ascent to develop from Thursday into Friday. Some of the guidance
this morning has continued the usual correction of northerly model
biases during widespread precip shield, which means that at least
through Thursday the best chance for measurable/appreciable rain
could be limited to areas south of I-40. This would also lead to
widespread cloudiness and cooler-than-normal temperatures struggling
to make it much past 60.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Precipitation is expected to become more widespread on Friday,
especially in the south, with showers and thunderstorm chances
persisting into Friday evening before ending as the mid-level trough
moves east of the forecast area. Temperatures will be seasonably
cool again Saturday before a warming trend through Tuesday. After
this system exits Friday evening, there are no significant
precipitation chances through the remainder of the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Many of our terminals will remain in a MVFR category through 00Z
with most terminals likely in a VFR category after 00Z through
the end of the forecast period. Most of our terminals are north of
a warm front boundary with northerly surface winds at 10 kts
gusting to 15 kts. Expecting the warm front currently stretched
just east and south of the I-44 corridor to begin pushing as a
cold front into southeast Oklahoma initiating a final round of
thunderstorms. Our terminal with the highest probability for
storms will be KDUA where TEMPOs are in place through 00Z for
potential severe thunderstorms. There is a 30% probability for
storms to impact terminal KSPS while probabilities are too low
around 20% for storms impacting terminals in the OKC Metro (KOKC &
KOUN) and KSWO to be in their respective TAFs but is worth
mentioning in this discussion. Surface winds will shift northerly
over terminal KDUA after the cold front passage and when
potential convective activity there moves out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  47  69  49  64 /   0   0   0  50
Hobart OK         45  73  49  62 /   0   0  10  60
Wichita Falls TX  52  73  54  66 /   0   0  10  60
Gage OK           38  70  44  60 /   0   0  20  70
Ponca City OK     44  69  46  66 /   0   0   0  20
Durant OK         55  70  56  67 /  40  10  10  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...68

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