Tornado Warning 17, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
551 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 545 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- Severe weather potential returns today, with a slight risk for
most of the area and an enhanced risk across southwest portions  of
the area.

- Several days of elevated to near critical fire weather
  conditions across western Oklahoma mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Focus in the near term continues to be on chances for severe
thunderstorms later this afternoon and this evening across much of
the area. As of early afternoon, an upper low is evident on water
vapor moving eastward across northern MX. Over our area, south winds
continue to maintain moisture advection ahead of a dryline which is
positioned across far western OK into the TX panhandle. Stratus
this morning has become more scattered, leaving plenty of
sunshine across central/western parts of the area, with low clouds
hanging on across southeast OK.

Storms are expected to fire along the dryline across west-central
and southwest TX as the cap erodes, with greater uncertainty on
initiation the farther north you go into western north TX and
western OK. If enough heating can occur to overcome the cap,
isolated supercells will be possible across western OK through
early evening, with a risk for large hail and damaging wind
gusts, with a very low risk for a tornado. Greater confidence for
storms exists across portions of western north TX northeastward
into southern/central OK as storms to our south move/develop into
the area later this afternoon and this evening. Any discrete or
semi-discrete storm this afternoon will be capable of very large
hail (>2.5" in diameter) before storms are expected to grow
upscale into a line by early evening. This should signal a
transition away from large hail and more towards damaging wind
gusts as the primary hazard this evening. That said, sufficient
low-level shear will be in place for a low risk for tornadoes
embedded in the line as well, especially with any favorably
oriented (NW-SE) line segments. Finally, a few storms with a risk
for large hail and damaging winds will also be possible across
northern OK closer to a cold front, though as of now it appears
the majority of this activity may end up just to our north in
southern KS.

The severe risk is expected to diminish after midnight as
instability wanes and activity moves east of the area, though
showers and (non- severe) storms could linger across southeast OK
through much of the overnight.

Ware

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A cold front will enter our area later tonight, bringing strong
north winds behind it. Expect the front to reach northwest OK
between 2-4am, reaching the I-44 corridor between 6-8am, and
clearing southeast OK around noon. With 850 mb flow ~50 knots behind
the front, winds could gust to 40-50 mph across much of the western
half of the area, with a few gusts of 50-60 mph possible across west-
central and southwest OK. A Wind Advisory is in effect for these
areas from 4am-7pm Wednesday with winds expected to diminish quickly
after sunset Wednesday evening.

Given the strong wind potential, fire weather will once again be a
concern Wednesday, even as temperatures cool back to near average
for this time of year. Near-critical fire weather is most probable
across western OK, with elevated conditions expected across much of
the rest of the area outside of southeast OK.

Although winds will be lighter compared to Wednesday, dry return
flow on Thursday will lead to elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions across the western third of the area.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Dry conditions are expected to continue through the end of the
week into the weekend. Friday and Saturday will feature a warming
trend before another strong cold front early Sunday morning.
Behind this frontal boundary, temperatures will drop to near
normal sunday, and below normal on Monday. Each day will feature
at least elevated fire weather conditions, with Sunday looking
like the biggest fire weather day in the long term.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Scattered storms early this evening are expected to merge into a
line(s) this evening and move across parts of the area with the
highest chances in parts of western north TX into southern and
central OK. Strong, variable winds and large hail will be possible
with the storms. A cold front is expected to move across the area
later tonight into Wednesday morning causing winds to shift to the
north. Stronger and gusty winds are expected behind the front.
There is a chance for some showers/storms to develop along the
cold front late tonight/early Wednesday but this chance is low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  54  64  35  63 /  60  10   0   0
Hobart OK         50  65  32  66 /  40   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  54  69  35  66 /  70   0   0   0
Gage OK           44  60  31  69 /  20   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     49  60  32  64 /  50  20   0   0
Durant OK         61  75  39  65 /  90  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ004-005-
     009>011-014>018-021>024-027-033>038-044.

TX...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ083>088.

&&

NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...25

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