Severe Thunderstorm Warning 920, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
644 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- A cold front arrives tonight/Sunday, bringing medium-high rain
  chances and more seasonable temperatures next week.

- Limited areas of strong to severe thunderstorms today and
  Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

At midday, the surface features are fairly well pronounced, with a
surface low in central Kansas, roughly to the southwest of
Salina, with a trough of low pressure extending southward into
northwestern Oklahoma. Surface winds are westerly across the
Oklahoma panhandle, while southwest winds are the norm across the
remainder of the area. winds aloft are out of the southwest as
well, and the low level jet remains strong...keeping surface winds
gusting to near 30 mph from Enid to El Reno. These features are
ahead of the much anticipated cold front, which is currently
stretching from near Guymon to Omaha.
231 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Also of note in the near term are the dewpoints and humidity. The
same things that will keep folks a bit miserable for any outdoor
activities today will also help bring some rain back to the
forecast later. The cold front will have everything to do with
PoPs, as the front will help trigger some showers or thunderstorms
along the front, beginning as early as 8 PM. However, most of
these will be west of I-35 & north of I-40. Overnight, a few
storms will begin to march east, bringing a few lucky folks some
rain in the early morning hours on Sunday.

Chances for rain are fairly low, between 20 and 40% in the
northwest. Even a fewer, unluckier folks, will see storms capable
of producing some hail to near 1" in diameter...or thunderstorm
winds gusting to over 60 mph. These chances are on the low side,
with about a 1 in 10 chance for severe weather for areas in the
slight risk area today.

Fox

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

While only the northwest and then north see a few thunderstorms
tonight and early Sunday, the rain begins to increase in coverage
during the day. Thunderstorm chances increase as the front moves
south during the daytime hours on Sunday, with the highest rain
chances in the afternoon hours. PoPs increase from northwest to
southeast through the day, and while not everyone is guaranteed
rainfall, the chances are much higher than they have been for
months. The rainfall (average rainfall expected to be less than
1") won't be enough to remove concerns from the drought, but the
pattern is favorable for the rest of the month.

Also of note, tomorrow will be a normal day for Oklahoma and north
Texas. Which means, of course, that there won't be anything
normal about it. The northern half of Oklahoma will see highs only
reaching the 80s, while the southern half and western north Texas
will once again see highs in the upper 90s to near 100. The
forecast looks much better (cooler) as we head into next week.

A slight risk of severe thunderstorms also exists tomorrow,
generally in central and southeastern Oklahoma. CAPE values on
Sunday will rise to the 1500-3000 J/kg range, which is ample
energy to be tapped into by strong lift along the cold front. Wind
profiles support isolated to clustered thunderstorms with primarily
a damaging wind threat, with the strongest storms producing hail
around 1". Severe chances on Sunday will once again be around 10
to 20%).

To clarify, however, the chances for rain on Sunday will be in
the 40-70% range. The chances for any of those storms to become
severe will be around 10%. There's a much higher chance for rain
than for severe storms.

Fox

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Oklahoma and north Texas will remain in the more seasonable
weather pattern through the remainder of the week. Through the
mid-week, precipitation chances will mainly be confined to the
west where upslope post-frontal air assists in the development of
convection on the High Plains, but the question will be if these
thunderstorms can move far enough east to reach the 100th
Meridian. Storm chances increase Wednesday night and Thursday as
models generally show a upper trough approaching the area,
although there are differences in the models on the specific
evolution of the pattern on Thursday/Friday which would potential
affect timing and how high the precipitation chances will be late
in the week.

For mid-week (Monday-Wednesday), there's about a 80% probability
that thunderstorms remain to our west, with a 20% probability of
the storms making their way into far western Oklahoma.

For Wednesday through Friday, overall, the rain and thunderstorm
chances increase as the upper level storm moves closer. The rain
chances appear to be maximized late Wednesday into Thursday,
bringing the potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms.
This chance remains about 60%, with about a 40% chance of a
slower, drying system moving into Oklahoma and western north
Texas.

26/21

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A complex of showers and thunderstorms continues to move eastward
across north central Oklahoma and could impact KPNC later this
evening with a threat for strong to severe wind gusts.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
later tonight into tomorrow morning, especially across
central/north central Oklahoma.

A cold front will move into northwest Oklahoma late tonight with
northeast winds behind the boundary. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop near the I-44 corridor
(KOKC/KOUN to KLAW to KSPS) toward the end of the TAF period along
the cold front. Ahead of the boundary, south to southeast winds
will continue (outside of any thunderstorms).

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  95  66  85 /  10  60  50  10
Hobart OK         76  98  67  89 /  10  40  40  10
Wichita Falls TX  76 100  68  92 /  10  50  60  10
Gage OK           69  88  61  82 /  30  10  20  10
Ponca City OK     73  91  64  82 /  40  60  40   0
Durant OK         74 100  70  94 /  10  20  60  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...20

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
725 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

OKZ008-200115-
Kay OK-
725 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Kay County through
815 PM CDT...

At 725 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking the leading edge of winds
from strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Chilocco
to 5 miles northwest of Marland. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Ponca City, Blackwell, Tonkawa, Newkirk, Kaw City, Kildare, Chilocco,
Kaw Lake, Hardy, and Peckham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3678 9676 3678 9679 3677 9679 3677 9682
      3674 9683 3675 9689 3668 9693 3669 9702
      3670 9703 3669 9705 3666 9706 3664 9705
      3660 9705 3660 9730 3700 9730 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 264DEG 23KT 3699 9706 3662 9722

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MDU

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
735 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

OKZ005-200100-
Woods OK-
735 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Woods
County through 800 PM CDT...

At 735 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles west of Hardtner, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central Woods
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9864 3695 9869 3695 9886 3700 9893
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 244DEG 26KT 3699 9876

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MDU

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
809 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

OKZ021-033-034-036-TXZ083-200145-
Harmon OK-Beckham OK-Greer OK-Jackson OK-Hardeman TX-
809 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Jackson,
Harmon, western Greer, southwestern Beckham and northwestern Hardeman
Counties through 845 PM CDT...

At 808 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking the leading edge of winds
from strong to severe thunderstorms along a line extending from 3
miles southwest of Texola to near Dodson to 7 miles northeast of
Kirkland. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hollis, Erick, Gould, Texola, Delhi, Vinson, Madge, McKnight, and
McQueen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3523 10000 3523 9965 3472 9967 3436 9967
      3437 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 270DEG 27KT 3518 10003 3476 10000 3449 10002

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MDU