Severe Thunderstorm Warning 792, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
254 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 254 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening
  across portions of southern Oklahoma and into western north
  Texas with large hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards.

- Hot and humid conditions expected to continue through next
  weekend with a risk for heat related illnesses.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Storms have developed this afternoon in southern Oklahoma and have
become more organized. Additional storms are expected to develop
through the afternoon hours. Downdraft CAPE in analyzed between
1000 and 1400 J/kg in the southwest supporting strong downdrafts
and the potential of strong winds, although hail will still be a
threat with mixed-layer CAPE around 2500 J/kg. Deep layer shear is
not particularly strong, so many individual updrafts may not be
the most persistent, but the overall environment will still
support some scattered severe storms. This activity will likely
slowly push south and storms become less numerous this evening
with diurnal stabilization.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The cold front aiding in the development for this evening's
storms will push through the area overnight. And while the post-
frontal airmass is not cold by any stretch of the imagination, it
qualifies as "not-as-hot" and heat index values Monday and Tuesday
afternoons will be closer to the 95-100 range as opposed to the
100-105 range. Some isolated showers/storms are not completely out
of the question in the southeast tomorrow, but overall
precipitation chances are rather low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

By midweek, the upper ridge will build westward towards the Pacific
Coast of Southern Cali. This will bring a return to northwesterly
flow aloft and warm downsloping adiabatic heating. Thus, widespread
near to above triple digit heat is forecast Wednesday and Thursday.
Additionally, diurnally driven thunderstorms along the higher
terrain to the west-northwest, driven by embedded disturbances in
the flow across the Plains will bring increasing shower and storm
chances to Oklahoma, especially western into northern Oklahoma,
during the evening and into the overnight hours both days.

The ridge will build northward into the Rockies by the end of the
week and into the weekend with a strong shortwave trough across the
Plains. This may bring some relief to the triple digit heat and more
widespread chances for rain across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Scattered shower and storms are expected this afternoon and
evening in southern OK and western north TX, mainly impacting KDUA
and KSPS with potential for strong and erratic winds in the
vicinity of storms. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light
east/southeast winds are expected to prevail across the area
through Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  94  71  96 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         68  96  71  98 /  20   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  71  97  72  99 /  30   0   0  10
Gage OK           66  95  69  97 /   0   0  10  10
Ponca City OK     69  89  70  90 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         73  94  73  95 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...08

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
333 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNE Byers             34.08N 98.19W
07/05/2026                   Clay               TX   Trained Spotter

            3 inch tree limbs down and 1/2 in hail. Time
            estimated by radar.

&&

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