Severe Thunderstorm Warning 608, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1105 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1059 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

- Severe thunderstorms producing heavy local rainfall, damaging
  wind gusts and large hail possible tonight associated with a
  cold front passage

- An unsettled pattern with multiple rounds of rain/storms are
  expected through this upcoming week; severe storms and heavy
  rainfall are possible especially late Tuesday

- Below normal temperatures but muggy conditions are forecast
  this week becoming hotter this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Strong to severe storms expected overnight as a cold front coming
down from the Central Plains will be pushing through enhanced by a
shortwave disturbance in the mid-level.  With moderate to strong
instability and strong 40-45 kt deep-layer shear will be sufficient
for organized severe storms producing up to 2-in diameter hail
and/or damaging wind downbursts as well as locally heavy rainfall.
Expecting the frontal boundary and storms to reach the OKC Metro
around 2-3 AM and perhaps the Red River by 5 AM.  Behind the surface
boundary a second mid-level shortwave may be following producing a
second round of storms during the latter half of the morning
although weakened instability should keep them sub-severe. Will keep
storm POPs in the forecast for Monday afternoon due to another
potential mid-level shortwave coming down from the northwest ascent
from the cold front boundary which may stall out along the Red
River. Can't completely rule out a potential Heat Advisory for our
Texas counties for Monday afternoon should the cold front stall
along the Red River. Much will depend on where the surface boundary
stalls out by Monday afternoon so the call for a heat advisory will
need to be made closer in time.
 &&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Surface-based moisture transport will increase in the short term
with the dryline staying far west of our forecast area and our cold
front boundary stalled out near the Red River early in the week.  As
a result instability will be increasing to moderate intensity late
in the day from diurnal heating.  Meanwhile an upper high will be
closing over the U.S. Southwest through adjacent Old Mexico which
will be building a ridge over the Southern Plains.  With the stalled
surface boundary across our south and embedded mid-level shortwave
rounding the ridging across our west and ample surface moisture in
place will maintain storm chances every day in the short term.  A
surface low lee of the Colorado Rockies will be pushing a cold front
across the Central High Plains late Tuesday where severe weather
could initiate and a few of these storms producing large hail &
damaging wind gusts could track into northwest Oklahoma where a
severe risk is in place.  By Wednesday the surface front stalled out
near the Red River may start lifting as a warm front with warm
advection coupled with mid-level disturbances may initiate storm
activity. Although temperatures may be near to slightly below
average, the persisting surface moisture (upper 60s to lower 70s dew
points) will still make our afternoon feel quite hot & muggy but
should stay below heat advisory criteria through week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Surface-based moisture transport will increase in the short term
with the dryline staying far west of our forecast area and our cold
front boundary stalled out near the Red River early in the week.  As
a result instability will be increasing to moderate intensity late
in the day from diurnal heating.  Meanwhile an upper high will be
closing over the U.S. Southwest through adjacent Old Mexico which
will be building a ridge over the Southern Plains.  With the stalled
surface boundary across our south and embedded mid-level shortwave
rounding the ridging across our west and ample surface moisture in
place will maintain storm chances every day in the short term.  A
surface low lee of the Colorado Rockies will be pushing a cold front
across the Central High Plains late Tuesday where severe weather
could initiate and a few of these storms producing large hail &
damaging wind gusts could track into northwest Oklahoma where a
severe risk is in place.  By Wednesday the surface front stalled out
near the Red River may start lifting as a warm front with warm
advection coupled with mid-level disturbances may initiate storm
activity. Although temperatures may be near to slightly below
average, the persisting surface moisture (upper 60s to lower 70s dew
points) will still make our afternoon feel quite hot & muggy but
should stay below heat advisory criteria through week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Our upper pattern will not be changing much in the long term with
embedded shortwaves coming through the ridging.  At the surface our
warm front may be stalling out somewhere near to north of I-40
eventually lifting into the Central Plains by the end of the week
with strong southerly winds coming up into the weekend.  Storm POPs
will be shifting higher across northern Oklahoma late in the week
near the surface boundary with the start of a dry pattern this
weekend along with hotter temperatures returning with triple digit
highs perhaps west of the I-35 corridor.  Overall this weekend is
trending hotter & muggy and dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Two rounds of storms may impact our terminals through the forecast
period degrading our terminals for periods to an MVFR to IFR
category with lowering CB ceilings and reduced visibilities in
heavy rain at times. The first round of strong to severe convection
will be along a cold front & mid-level shortwave coming down the
Central Plains are already moving into northwest Oklahoma reaching
terminals near the I-40 corridor around 07Z and eventually
crossing the Red River into terminal KSPS by 09Z. A second round
of storms will be in association with a second mid- level
shortwave coming off the Southern High Plains which may impact our
terminals again from 12-18Z. Due to some uncertainties with
timing did extend lower probabilities of 30% for storms beyond
18Z. Surface winds will shift northeast behind the cold front but
in actuality expecting surface winds to be gusty and variable in
direction due to the convection and outflow from the storm
activity. Another shortwave MCS may be coming through Monday
evening off Southern High Plains so have 30% probability of storms
returning after 01Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  83  69  88 /  80  50  60  40
Hobart OK         72  89  69  93 /  50  40  50  20
Wichita Falls TX  76  94  73  96 /  30  40  50  20
Gage OK           67  84  66  91 /  50  30  30  30
Ponca City OK     68  80  66  84 /  70  10  30  50
Durant OK         78  91  75  91 / 100  60  70  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...68

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
638 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

OKZ004-009-010-220015-
Woodward OK-Harper OK-Ellis OK-
638 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Ellis,
south central Harper and west central Woodward Counties through 715
PM CDT...

At 638 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southwest of Fort Supply, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Supply.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 9967 3657 9975 3666 9950 3645 9942
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 260DEG 9KT 3652 9963

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Mahale

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
645 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

OKZ005-010-011-220015-
Major OK-Woodward OK-Woods OK-
645 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Woods,
northwestern Major and east central Woodward Counties through 715 PM
CDT...

At 644 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of Quinlan, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Waynoka.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 9903 3654 9905 3661 9882 3646 9877
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 260DEG 9KT 3651 9898

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Mahale

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
737 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     Hail             1 NE Tangier            36.43N 99.52W
06/21/2026  E1.00 Inch       Woodward           OK   Broadcast Media

&&

EM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
742 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 PM     Hail             1 NE Tangier            36.43N 99.52W
06/21/2026  E1.25 Inch       Woodward           OK   Broadcast Media

&&

EM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
830 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 PM     Hail             5 S Tangier             36.35N 99.53W
06/21/2026  E1.50 Inch       Woodward           OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Ping Pong Ball (1.50
            in.).

&&

EM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
832 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     Hail             3 SW Tangier            36.39N 99.57W
06/21/2026  E1.75 Inch       Woodward           OK   CO-OP Observer

&&

EM