Severe Thunderstorm Warning 587, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
559 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 556 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- Hot again in southern Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon.

- Marginal risk for strong to severe storms this evening through
  Friday morning.

- Heavy rain Thursday night could lead to localized flooding.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Weather impacts today will be driven by a cold front gliding
southward through the area, yielding impactful heat across southern
Oklahoma and north Texas and thunderstorm chances / cooler
temperatures spreading from north to south with the front.

Heat: While northern Oklahoma will get relief from yesterday's heat
(highs in the 80s), southern Oklahoma and north Texas will see a
thermal ridge develop ahead of the front this afternoon. Timing of
the front will determine the northward extent of heat impacts--our
heat advisory has been updated to accord with the latest HREF
guidance. The highest heat indices will be in western north Texas.

Storms: The setup today and tonight is somewhat messy. Early in the
day there is a weak signal for isentropic showers along and north of
the front. The signal in the CAMs is fairly weak, but the
environment could support some elevated strong storms.

Toward late afternoon / early evening diurnal heating will lend its
support to storm initiation. This could result in surface based
storms (including severe risk) in southern Oklahoma and north Texas
along the front. CAMs particularly seem to favor western north Texas
for storm initiation where afternoon heating will be the strongest.

Moving into the night, additional storms are likely behind the front
as a modest low level jet increases. Elevated instability is
forecast to remain sufficient to sustain a severe risk through the
night. Single / multi-cell clusters will yield primarily a hail
threat, potentially evolving into a wind threat as storms evolve
into an MCS.

Additionally, heavy rainfall will yield a flooding threat overnight
generally near and south of I-40. HREF shows up to a 50% probability
of 3 inches in 3 hours over parts of south central / central
Oklahoma.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Showers and storms are likely to linger into Friday morning across
parts of southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Highs on Friday
afternoon should even out in the 80s.

Northwest to zonal flow aloft will keep us in a somewhat active
pattern into the weekend, though model agreement for rain chances is
low.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Active pattern continues into early next week. Sunday looks to bring
a return of impactful heat under mostly sunny skies. This will be
ahead of a front moving in Sunday night, which will bring with it
significant rain chances. Outside of Sunday, temperatures should
hover near normal.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Expect to continue to see an expansion of MVFR ceilings this
morning, which will likely continue through the morning hours
before ceiling lift to VFR across much of the area. Also expected
some showers and thunderstorms across the north and portions of
the west this morning with perhaps a lull this afternoon before
showers and thunderstorms become more widespread overnight into
Friday morning. South winds will shift to the east and northeast
as a front works through the area today and tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  82  67  85  70 /  30  70  50  40
Hobart OK         85  65  87  69 /  30  90  40  40
Wichita Falls TX  98  69  88  71 /  20  80  50  40
Gage OK           75  62  86  67 /  40  40  30  40
Ponca City OK     73  65  84  69 /  70  40  30  40
Durant OK         94  75  87  74 /   0  70  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ037-039-044>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ084>090.

&&

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30

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