Severe Thunderstorm Warning 397, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
632 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

- Potential for strong-severe storms on Friday and Saturday
  evening & night; some risk may linger into Sunday afternoon.

- Hot, well-above average temperatures are expected into next
  week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

After several cooler days with nil weather impact, thunderstorm and
severe weather chances return across the area today. Water vapor
imagery captures a shortwave trough sliding eastward from Kansas
into the Ozarks. A trailing surface front currently extends from
~Arnett to Cherokee, moving slowly to the southeast.

As surface heating maximizes (~3-5 PM), and a pocket of cold mid-
level temperatures advances overhead, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to emerge in vicinity of the slow-moving front, primarily
across north-central Oklahoma. Given rather meager moisture
quality and depth, yielding large temperature-dewpoint spreads,
initial activity will likely favor potential for damaging
downburst wind events. The wind risk will likely continue
throughout the evening and perhaps maximize as clustered activity
intercepts greater boundary layer moisture across southern
Oklahoma and north Texas. Occasional instances of large hail will
also be possible, especially when/where more cellular structures
materialize throughout the evening.

Activity should begin to clear south of the Red River/our western-
north Texas counties towards the 12 AM Saturday timeframe.

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Most of Saturday will be warm and dry ahead of another quick-
moving upper system. As temperatures warm into the mid to
upper-90s beneath an inverted surface trough across the combined
Panhandles, scattered thunderstorm development is expected to
ensue (~4-7 PM). How quickly (and how much) activity moves across
the 100th meridian into far western Oklahoma remains somewhat
uncertain. Morning guidance ranges from several organized evening
storms to basically none at all across the aforementioned region.
Despite uncertainties, at least low potential highlights for
storms (and severe weather) will be maintained prior to sunset
across portions of western Oklahoma and western-north Texas.
Severe weather hazards in the evening regime would again focus on
damaging downburst winds, with any large to very large hail
concern requiring a more favorable (supercell) storm mode.

More likely/widespread rain and storm coverage will arrive by the
mid to late evening Saturday and continue into Sunday morning. A
more notable isentropic regime/low-level jet response is currently
progged in advance of an approaching (weak) front. The degree of
severe weather risk by this time will be highly dependent on the
character of the boundary layer. With at least subtle moisture/theta-
e advection through the night, some concern for damaging winds will
likely exist, especially if more clustered/linear storm modes
emerge. Otherwise, increasing elevated instability fields will
foster occasional concern for large hail with stronger and more
persistent thunderstorm cores.

Rain and storm coverage should slowly decrease from north-to-south
into early Sunday afternoon. Dependent on how far south the
surface boundary makes it towards the early evening (controlled by
rain/clouds in the morning), then some lingering strong-severe
storm risk is possible across the Red River Valley during this
time.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Upper ridging then broadens from the southwest CONUS out into the
central and southern Plains as we go into early next week. There is
a front that the models moves into at least northern Oklahoma on
Tuesday with a 850MB thermal ridge to the south of the front. This
will make for a very warm day Tuesday, especially across the west
and southwest where afternoon temperatures climb to near 100
degrees. This front should wash out rather quickly with south winds
returning Wednesday across the west, keeping the hot temperatures
entrenched across the west through much of next week with only
minimal rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Scattered strong to severe storms are moving through central into
southern Oklahoma this evening and will continue to push southward
into north Texas late this evening. Erratic, damaging winds and
large hail will be possible with storms, along with lightning.
A cold front is pushing southward behind the storms and will bring
brief north winds before becoming light and variable through
tomorrow morning. Some MVFR ceilings might return overnight at
sites across southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas,
otherwise VFR conditions will remain through the period.

South winds will return tomorrow with additional chances for
storms tomorrow evening, but may occur after this TAF period, thus
no mention was given in this TAF issuance to focus on the current
round of storms tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  56  86  62  72 /  50   0  80  70
Hobart OK         55  91  62  77 /  30   0  40  40
Wichita Falls TX  60  90  65  84 /  50   0  20  60
Gage OK           51  91  54  72 /   0  20  60  30
Ponca City OK     51  83  58  70 /  10   0  80  50
Durant OK         61  84  66  81 /  60  10  30  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...23

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
755 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     Hail             1 E Elgin               34.78N 98.28W
05/08/2026  E1.50 Inch       Comanche           OK   Public

&&

Bunk

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
801 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     Hail             3 S Fletcher            34.78N 98.24W
05/08/2026  E1.25 Inch       Comanche           OK   Public

&&

Bunk

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
808 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

OKZ028-040>042-047-090145-
Garvin OK-Johnston OK-Pontotoc OK-McClain OK-Murray OK-
808 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Johnston, northeastern Garvin, southwestern Pontotoc, northeastern
Murray and southeastern McClain Counties through 845 PM CDT...

At 807 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stratford, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stratford, Roff, Byars, Fitzhugh, Hickory, Scullin, Fittstown, and
Vanoss.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3478 9715 3491 9700 3463 9655 3441 9684
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 315DEG 39KT 3476 9701

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JT

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