Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
630 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

- Severe storms, a few significant, are expected through this
  afternoon and tonight.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible
  across parts of northwest and western Oklahoma into next week.

- Dry and cooler weather this weekend with a freeze possible
  Sunday morning (western and northern Oklahoma).

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening over
northern Oklahoma ahead of a cold front, with isolate and discrete
supercells possible ahead of the dryline this afternoon. Convective
initiation has already begun in Roger Mills, Woods, and Kay Counties,
although capping appears to remain farther east and south into central
Oklahoma.

The cold front has already moved into northwest Oklahoma but is
anticipated to slow in forward progression as a surface low nears
the 100th meridian. With MLCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear values prog'd
to rise to 3000-3500 J/kg and 50-75kts, hail up to the size of softballs
are possible across parts of northwest and western Oklahoma. While
models have consistently depicted storms developing along the cold
front and growing upscale across northern Oklahoma, they have been
meager on storm development ahead of the dryline in western Oklahoma.
However, there has been a noticeable increase in depicted supercells
(mainly isolated) ahead of the dryline this afternoon and evening,
especially near Roger Mills, Dewey, Custer Counties, where the triple
point is prog'd. With CI underway, it appears this scenario is beginning
to play out. Uncertainty remains if storms will fire farther south
ahead of the dryline.

Most of our FA is still significantly capped, with the exception of
a narrow zone ahead of the frontal boundaries and CAMS seem to keep
it capped as storms advance towards central Oklahoma. Expectation is
for storms to become elevated with the cold front this evening while
growing upscale and becoming a damaging wind threat and perhaps a few
QLCS tornadoes. Line of storms is anticipated to reach the I-40 corridor
between 8 PM and 11 PM.

As the front continues southward, strong northerly winds increase by
late evening, particularly over western/southwestern Oklahoma and
adjacent north Texas. Severe wind gusts are possible in this area,
but whether they are a result of convection or not, remains unclear.
Regardless, duration of this appears to be an hour or two. Storms are
anticipated to exit our area by 3 AM to 5 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

The cold front and showers/storms are expected to clear the FA just
before dawn. By this time, post-frontal winds will be strongest
closer to the Red River with gusts of 30-40 mph possible, and
morning low temperatures will be chilly (40's to low-50's). A cool,
dry airmass will be in place for Saturday with afternoon high
temperatures mainly in the 60's. The surface high will depart the
Rockies and transit our area by Saturday evening with winds becoming
light/variable on Saturday night and generally shifting to the
south/southwest by Sunday morning. Clear skies and light winds will
lead to near freezing temperatures for some locales on Sunday
morning.

By this time, an upper ridge is positioned over the western CONUS. A
shortwave embedded within the northwest flow will prompt weak
cyclogenesis on the lee-side of the Rockies, and this will result in
south and southwest winds increasing to 20-25mph across northwest
and western Oklahoma by Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, pleasant spring
weather is expected on Sunday with sunny skies and high temperatures
in the 70's.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Medium-range guidance is in good agreement with a mid-level ridge
dominating the Plains through most of the long term. Overall,
mainly dry conditions are expected at least through the middle of
the week, with highs generally in the 70s. A low amplitude
shortwave trough is expected move across portions of
Texas/southern Oklahoma on Monday with height rises and ridging in
the wake of this feature on Tuesday. This will result in low rain
chances across mainly southern Oklahoma and western north Texas
on Monday with mainly dry conditions on Tuesday.

Confidence is beginning to increase in our next major system
arriving Thursday with storm potential ramping back up during this
timeframe. This will be a day to keep an eye out for in the
coming days.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms continues to move
southeast across northern Oklahoma. These storms will continue to
move southeast tonight. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and
ceiling/visibility reductions are expected.

Ahead of the front, gusty southerly winds will continue. As the
front moves through, winds will shift to the north and remain
gusty. Northerly winds will remain gusty through the TAF period.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  45  64  40  73 /  90   0   0   0
Hobart OK         44  68  37  75 /  50   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  49  69  39  74 /  50   0   0   0
Gage OK           36  67  35  76 /  20   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     42  64  38  73 / 100   0   0   0
Durant OK         51  66  42  72 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-
     010-014>016-021-022.

     Wind Advisory until 8 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ004>007-009>012-
     014>019-021>025-027>029-033>038-044.

TX...Wind Advisory until 8 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ083>086.

&&

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...10

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