Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
643 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

- Cold front brings potential for strong to severe storms and
  locally heavy rainfall/flooding this afternoon into Saturday
  morning.

- Dry conditions and cooler, seasonable temperatures are expected
  Saturday and into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

After a pleasant day of weather on Thursday, another round of strong-
to-severe thunderstorms and heavy rain/flooding potential arrives
this afternoon and continues through the night.

Current satellite imagery captures a broad upper trough meandering
eastward across the Rocky Mountains, while a rather active branch of
the subtropical jet begins to impinge across the area. At the
surface, a cold front continues to sink slowly southeastward across
northern portions of the area, currently extending from ~Cheyenne to
Cherokee.

Expectation remains for the development of scattered thunderstorms
along the length of the front in the 2-5 PM timeframe, as
synoptic-scale ascent begins to overspread the area. Thunderstorm
development is likely to continue during the evening into night,
especially as a warm air advection/isentropic pattern increases
near the front after sunset.

The combination of strong (>2500 J/kg MLCAPE) instability and ~40
kts of deep-layer wind shear will promote organized
thunderstorms. A large hail and damaging wind risk will likely
accompany the initial phase (i.e., supercell mode) of the
convective event, with the main risk transitioning towards
occasional damaging wind gusts as upscale growth occurs throughout
the evening. While a deep moist profile may temper the wind risk
some, local corridors of more focused risk are possible associated
with rear-inflow jet/surges of more organized linear convective
segments along and ahead of the front.

While not zero, the risk for tornadoes is expected to remain
limited this evening and tonight, primarily owing to weak low-
level wind shear and potential for undercutting effects from
storm-scale outflows and eventually the front. However, as a low-
level jet (and attendant low-level wind shear) increases after
sunset near and east of the I-35 corridor, will closely monitor
for potential of a tornado or two. This would be especially true
should an organized storm or two develop within a broad zone of
near-surface convergence during the mid-evening, as a few near-
term guidance members have shown this morning.

Perhaps the greatest risk (at least from a coverage perspective)
looks to be heavy rainfall and the associated potential for
flooding, especially in areas along/east of I-44 and along/south of
I-40 late this evening into early Saturday. A combination of >95th
percentile (from a seasonal perspective) preciptable water, slow
storm motions and potential for multiple or repeated rounds of
thunderstorms drives this concern. A Flood Watch has been
initiated for portions of the aforementioned area from 4 PM Friday
to 9 AM Saturday morning.

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Saturday will be dreary/rainy early, especially near and south of
the Red River. We currently expect all areas to be precipitation
free by the early afternoon, with post-frontal cloudiness clearing
from northwest-to-southeast throughout the day. Daytime highs (low
to upper-60s) will be the coolest of the next several days,
especially where clouds linger into the afternoon (i.e., central
and southeastern Oklahoma).

Conditions begin to moderate on Sunday, as greater influence from an
expanding western US upper ridge begins to be felt across the
region. Peak daytime readings look to run from the low to mid-70s
across the region with mostly clear skies and a light north to east
wind. Very splendid weather for outdoor activities to close out the
weekend!

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Seasonable and dry conditions will continue into Monday with
northwest flow aloft. The flow will become westerly by Tuesday,
which will result in lee cyclogenesis east of the Rockies. In
response, a strengthening surface pressure gradient will result in
breezy southerly winds.

Moisture advection appears somewhat limited, so a dry return flow
(DRF) pattern for fire weather is possible Tuesday afternoon with
the potential for elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions across northwest Oklahoma. This area is expected to
receive limited to no rainfall with today's system, so the fuels
will likely be susceptible wildfire spread.

The breezy southerly winds will likely continue Wednesday and
Thursday with the continued risk for some fire weather
conditions; however, increasing moisture advection should limit
the risk by Thursday.

The next chance for appreciable rainfall looks to be late
Thursday into the upcoming weekend as both deterministic models
and ensemble members indicate southwest flow aloft will likely
develop across the Southern Plains.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

A final round of convection across most of our terminals along and
south of a cold front. Will have TEMPOs for +TSRA and potential
brief MVFR conditions due to lowering ceilings and visibilities
in rain up to through 08Z. Only terminal KWWR in northwest OK will
stay clear from any storm activity. Will also keep -SHRA in TEMPO
groups for four hours following the storm activity with much of
this ending by 12Z although longer up to 18Z at KDUA. The cold
front is currently stretched across northern and western OK and
will continue pushing through our area producing a northerly wind
shift. Our terminals ahead of the cold front will see surface
winds shift out of the north between 02-06Z with the wind shift reaching
terminal KDUA by 09Z. A strong post-frontal northerly low-level
jet may produce low-level wind shear (mainly speed shear) over
some of our terminals until 16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  50  63  41  70 /  90  10   0   0
Hobart OK         49  69  39  72 /  80  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  53  66  43  71 /  90  50   0   0
Gage OK           41  65  36  75 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     45  62  37  70 /  60   0   0   0
Durant OK         53  63  44  70 / 100  90   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OKZ023>032-035-037>048-
     050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for TXZ086-089-090.

&&

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...68

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
545 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

OKZ013-032315-
Noble OK-
545 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Noble
County through 615 PM CDT...

At 545 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sooner Lake, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Red Rock and Sooner Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3658 9689 3655 9690 3655 9693 3653 9696
      3653 9699 3651 9701 3651 9703 3637 9703
      3633 9718 3645 9726 3659 9702 3659 9697
      3660 9691
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 242DEG 28KT 3644 9710

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Schueth

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
547 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

OKZ022-023-035-032315-
Kiowa OK-Washita OK-Caddo OK-
547 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Washita,
west central Caddo and northwestern Kiowa Counties through 615 PM
CDT...

At 546 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
capable of producing 50 mph wind gusts along a line extending from 5
miles east of Cloud Chief to near Granite. Movement was east at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hobart, Lone Wolf, Eakly, Gotebo, Rocky, Colony, Cloud Chief, and
Cowden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 9934 3501 9933 3527 9896 3537 9867
      3531 9848 3496 9899 3492 9922 3498 9934
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 253DEG 16KT 3525 9874 3494 9934

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Meister

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
612 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

OKZ022>024-034-035-032345-
Kiowa OK-Washita OK-Canadian OK-Caddo OK-Greer OK-
612 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Washita,
northwestern Caddo, northern Kiowa, east central Greer and west
central Canadian Counties through 645 PM CDT...

At 612 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
capable of producing a landspout along a line extending from 7 miles
northeast of Eakly to 5 miles south of Lone Wolf. Movement was east
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hobart, Hinton, Granite, Mountain View, Binger, Corn, Lone Wolf,
Eakly, Gotebo, Lookeba, Rocky, Colony, Alfalfa, Cloud Chief, Fort
Cobb Reservoir, Cedar Lake, Cowden, and Altus-Lugert Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3548 9809 3496 9884 3490 9914 3491 9944
      3543 9876 3550 9844
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 255DEG 23KT 3540 9850 3491 9926

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Meister

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
627 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

OKZ033>036-040000-
Harmon OK-Kiowa OK-Greer OK-Jackson OK-
627 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Jackson,
west central Kiowa, central Harmon and southeastern Greer Counties
through 700 PM CDT...

At 627 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
capable of producing a landspout along a line extending from 5 miles
southeast of Lone Wolf to 3 miles south of Hollis. Movement was east
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mangum, Hollis, Granite, Blair, Gould, Duke, Hester, McKnight,
Altus-Lugert Lake, and McQueen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3478 10000 3498 9933 3498 9882 3465 9960
      3463 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 261DEG 33KT 3494 9918 3464 9990

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Meister

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
631 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

OKZ013-020-040000-
Payne OK-Noble OK-
631 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Noble
and north central Payne Counties through 700 PM CDT...

At 631 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of Lake Mcmurtry, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stillwater, Morrison, and Glencoe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3633 9703 3633 9692 3625 9692 3625 9682
      3619 9682 3616 9716 3630 9721 3637 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 253DEG 25KT 3624 9712

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Schueth

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
642 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     Hail             4 NE Hobart             35.07N 99.05W
04/03/2026  E1.00 Inch       Kiowa              OK   Trained Spotter

&&

RB