Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
636 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- Severe storms expected by early this evening and into the
overnight hours. Potential hazards:
	-- Large hail (> 2")
	-- Damaging winds (60-75 mph)
	-- Tornadoes

- Elevated fire weather conditions remain possible into early next
  week, mainly over portions of western Oklahoma and western north
  Texas.

- Strong/severe thunderstorm chances return Friday afternoon and
  night.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

After a long, hot February and March, the atmosphere's April Fool's
Day prank for us this year is to jump us straight into active severe
weather on the first of the month. Satellite shows a band of cirrus
over the southern Rockies in advance of a compact trough. Robust
height falls will overspread the dryline (along a line from near
Seiling to San Angelo) this afternoon. Subsequent
cooling/destabilizing aloft will prove more than sufficient for
storm development, and perhaps widespread development/rapid upscale
growth. A secondary area to watch for storm development will be
along a surging warm front, which by mid-afternoon will extend east-
northeast from that dryline into north central Oklahoma. This area
is more removed from forcing and thus the chances for storms prior
to sunset are lower.

Shear profiles along the dryline will favor splitting supercells
initially this afternoon. Dewpoint depressions near 20 and weak 0-1
km shear will temper the initial tornado threat, but very large hail
is possible with mid-level lapse rates in the 7.5/8 C/km range. If
any storms develop late this afternoon along the warm front, low-
level shear would be greater there, leading to a conditionally
greater potential for supercellular tornadoes.

Storm development/amalgamation will continue east of the dryline as
forcing continues late this evening. We anticipate that this will
eventually lead to development of an eastward-moving squall line.
Guidance has trended toward greater 100-mb mean mixing ratios and
more classic Great Plains LLJ-induced hodographs between 0Z and 04Z
tonight. Thus, concern is heightened for the potential for line-
embedded tornadoes, one or two of which could be strong (EF2+). The
risk for damaging winds will also increase as the LLJ ramps up and
downdrafts have increased momentum to mechanically mix to the
surface.

The squall line will exit our area late tonight and winds will
increase from the south-southwest as a surface low develops in
Kansas.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

As the surface low moves eastward during the day on Thursday, the
dryline will elongate from southwest to northeast and mix eastward.
The residual High Plains airmass will continue to be extremely dry,
so even with rather marginal surface winds, elevated fire weather
will emerge in far western Oklahoma/western north Texas. The exact
location of this elevated fire weather is yet to be determined due
to the potential damping effect (pun not intended) of rainfall on
the fuelscape. Temperatures will remain well above-normal, which is
basically par for the course for this year.

Another round of storms will sweep in with a much stronger cold
front on Friday. The primary surface low/upper-level forcing is
expected to be closer to Iowa, leaving us on the southwestern fringe
of an elongated "banana low". Those kind of early-spring banana low
environments are ripe (pun not intended) for anafrontal convection
as the cold front sweeps southward, and all indications are that we
will see that here. That will potentially limit the severe threat or
at least focus it more into a damaging wind threat along the front,
though the environment does look rather unstable and shear profiles
are robust. Regardless, Friday brings hope of another widespread
round of wetting rain as we move into the peak of the green-up
season.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Cooler temperatures are expected on Saturday following the passage
of the cold front, with decreasing clouds. Low temperatures on
Sunday morning will be on the cool side and range from the upper
30's to mid 40's. No rain chances are in the forecast through
Tuesday and will see temperatures gradually increase into the
70's.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
impacting most our terminals now between 00-06Z but not reaching
terminal KDUA in southeast Oklahoma until between 06-10Z. Could
see terminals degrade briefly to an MVFR category mainly due to
reduced visibilities in heavy rain. Terminals within their
respected TEMPO group could also see variable gusty strong to
severe winds on the surface along with a hail potential with the
convection. A very strong low-level jet increasing out of the
south will produce low-level wind shear at five of our terminals
mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor. Rain showers may
linger a few hours after the convection ends. By 16Z expecting
surface winds veering more southwesterly around 10-20 kts gusting
20-30 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  62  83  64  81 / 100   0   0  50
Hobart OK         59  86  63  85 /  80   0   0  50
Wichita Falls TX  63  88  65  84 /  90   0  10  60
Gage OK           52  84  58  81 /  60   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     62  81  62  80 / 100  10   0  60
Durant OK         64  83  66  81 /  90  50  20  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...68

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
857 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NW Seymour            33.62N 99.30W
04/01/2026  M69 MPH          Baylor             TX   Mesonet

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
912 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

OKZ012-013-018-019-024-025-027>029-020245-
Garfield OK-Grady OK-Kingfisher OK-Oklahoma OK-Logan OK-Canadian OK-
Cleveland OK-McClain OK-Noble OK-
912 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Kingfisher,
northern Grady, western Oklahoma, southwestern Noble, northwestern
Cleveland, Logan, southeastern Garfield, eastern Canadian and
northwestern McClain Counties through 945 PM CDT...

At 911 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles east of Bison to near Minco.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Oklahoma City, western Norman, Edmond, Moore, Midwest City, Del City,
El Reno, Guthrie, Newcastle, Kingfisher, Yukon, Bethany, Mustang,
Warr Acres, The Village, Tuttle, Piedmont, Spencer, Nichols Hills,
and Hennessey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3573 9735 3525 9743 3506 9809 3510 9809
      3560 9790 3615 9795 3630 9739
TIME...MOT...LOC 0211Z 247DEG 33KT 3619 9782 3540 9783

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Ware