Red Flag Warning 18, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1008 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1006 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions expected
  through Tuesday.

- Increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms for portions
  of the area from Tuesday through Saturday with some risk of
  strong to severe storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Breezy southerly winds have resulted in modest moisture recovery
across Oklahoma and north Texas with 24-hour dewpoint temperatures
changes +10 to 25 deg F. The higher relative humidity will temper
the overall fire risk to elevated this afternoon even with breezy
southerly winds. A weak northwest wind shift has brought in drier
air across far northwest Oklahoma, where relative humidity values
are below 20%. This area has the highest chance of locally near-
critical fire weather conditions. However, winds are lighter here
due to the weak wind shift and associated trough axis.

Winds will stay breezy tonight, which will result in a warm night.
Low temperatures will generally be in the 50s to low 60s deg F.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Hotter weather is expected Monday afternoon with a strengthening
low-level thermal ridge (e.g., 850 mb temperatures are progged to
be >22 deg C near the 100th meridian). High temperatures are
expected to range from the mid 80s (southeast Oklahoma) to mid 90s
(western Oklahoma into western north Texas). Across western
Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas, these hot
temperatures will allow relative humidity values to fall to 10%
25% (with the lowest values across northwest Oklahoma. The low
humidity will combine with southerly winds at 20 to 30 mph to
result in near-critical fire weather conditions. Vertical mixing
into into 25 to 40 knot 925 to 850 mb flow will result in wind
gusts to 45 mph. In addition, fuels will be highly
volatile/susceptible to wildfire spread with the ongoing drought
with ERC percentiles near the 90th percentile. This will result in
total fire environment (fuels + weather) up to 70 (out of 10)
tomorrow afternoon. As a result, a Fire Weather Watch was issued
for western Oklahoma into portions of western north Texas.

By Tuesday, a cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma as a
shortwave trough moves across the Northern Plains. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front
Tuesday afternoon. Strong to damaging wind gusts is the primary
hazard with the most intense thunderstorms given ~30 to 40 deg F
temperature-dewpoint spreads. The aforementioned cold front is
forecast to eventually stall before lifting back to the north as
another shortwave trough approaches from the southwest.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

The active pattern will continue for the rest of the week into
the weekend with off and on shower and thunderstorm chances. The
shower and thunderstorms will bring some much needed rain although
not likely to be a drought buster. But, at least enough to alleviate
the fire weather concerns for a few days in some areas. More spring-
like temperatures are also expected through the rest of the week
into the weekend with around to about 10 degrees above average
temperatures expected during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

VFR conditions continue through this TAF period with mid/high
clouds streaming across the area. There is a chance for low
VFR/MVFR ceilings overnight into Monday morning, especially at
KDUA but chances are currently too low for anything more than a
scattered deck. Breezy S to SE winds will continue overnight
becoming gusty S to SW winds Monday. LLWS is also expected through
early Monday at all sites except KWWR and KDUA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  61  86  64  86 /   0   0   0  20
Hobart OK         58  89  62  88 /   0   0   0  20
Wichita Falls TX  59  88  61  88 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           56  92  61  86 /   0  10  10  20
Ponca City OK     59  88  65  86 /   0   0  10  30
Durant OK         60  84  62  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for OKZ004-005-009>011-014>016-021-022-033>036.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for TXZ083>085.

&&

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...25