Flash Flood Warning 72, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
618 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 431 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

- Scattered strong to severe storms are possible late this
  afternoon and evening, with hail up to the size of quarters,
  gusts to 70 mph, and locally heavy rainfall possible.

- Flood Watch in effect for a small area of north central
  Oklahoma

- Summer finally shows up.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Friday afternoon and evening may be the most interesting part of
this forecast update, as just enough parameters are in place for
at least scattered thunderstorms. Since it is still June, any
thunderstorm will have an appropriate amount of instability and
shear to produce a few severe storms.

Yesterday: much more of a classic setup, as evidenced by the
tornadoes in the panhandles. Today isn't quite as volatile, yet
there are steep lapse rates, 0-6km shear approaching 35 to 40
knots, and some juicy dewpoints in the 70s. This isn't enough for
a repeat of yesterday, but should be enough to allow scattered
storms to become severe if they can develop. ACARS and model
soundings are pretty close, each showing between 2000-2500 J/kg of
CAPE in central and northwestern Oklahoma.

So, can storms indeed develop. For a lifting mechanism, there is a
stalled front from Amarillo,TX to Wellington,KS to Springfield,
MO. 18Z satellite data shows cu in the development stage...and
daytime heating should enhance this through sunset. With few
exceptions, the convective allowing models are showing a signal
for increased cloud base RH...and are developing convection as
early as 22Z, but especially by 0Z. Thus, at least scattered
thunderstorms are likely in the north.

The cold front and associated boundaries are most notable on
satellite just north of the border in southern Kansas. As storms
fire here, they will be close enough to produce rain and/or runoff
in Grant, Kay, and Noble Counties. This is the same area which has
seen over 5+ inches of rain in spots this week. Rainfall amounts
as little as 1/2 inch could aggravate any flooding issues there.
Therefore, a Flood Watch was issued for those three counties
through 12Z Saturday.

Fox

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

After 12Z Saturday, rain and thunderstorm chances decrease. As the
rain chances move east, the temperatures will begin to rise. Low
90s today will quickly give way to mid and upper 90s on Saturday,
with close to triple digits possible near Wichita Falls.
Thankfully, nowhere near record setting territory. See below for
more on that. However, despite not being records, it'll feel hot
enough, as the heat index values will rise to as high as 103.

Record highs this weekend in Wichita Falls are two of the highest
temperatures on record at KSPS. Saturday's high temperature record
is 116, set in 1980. Sunday's high temperature record in Wichita
Falls is the highest on record, 117 degrees, also set in 1980.

Fox

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Midnight shift did a great job with the overview, so have kept the
text below. Of the next six days, we are currently forecasting one
record warm minimum (record high morning low temp), two that tie
existing records, and within 2 degrees of the remaining three. In
other words, once the relative cool weather is gone, summer is
heading in with a vengeance. Upper ridge will build, with
monsoonal flow setting up over Arizona and New Mexico.

Fox

Previous long term discussion:
1253 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Above-average temperatures will be the main story next week with
highs in the upper 90's to low 100's. Heat index values are forecast
to remain just below advisory criteria, with warmer values expected
over north-central Oklahoma into mid-week. Low shower and storm chances
could linger across western Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 431 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Another round of showers and storms expected to impact northern
into portions of central Oklahoma this evening and into the
overnight. Some brief periods of MVFR ceilings appear possible
with this activity. By morning precip ends and skies gradually
clear. Winds will diminsh across much of the area, but may stay up
across portions of western Oklahoma southward into western north
Texas. South to southwest winds will increase area-wide Saturday
morning with some gusts over 30kts possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  96  79  96 /  20  10   0   0
Hobart OK         76 100  78 100 /  20   0  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  77  99  77  98 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           72 102  80 102 /  20   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     73  92  79  94 /  60  20   0   0
Durant OK         78  94  77  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OKZ007-008-013-020.

TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...30

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
601 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

OKZ005-011-262330-
Major OK-Woods OK-
601 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Woods
and northwestern Major Counties through 630 PM CDT...

At 600 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles southwest of Waynoka to 11 miles north
of Orion. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Waynoka, Avard, and Bouse Junction.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 9853 3640 9853 3635 9880 3647 9896
      3660 9896 3679 9888
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 208DEG 19KT 3656 9893 3639 9874

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MDU

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