Flash Flood Warning 67, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
603 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 600 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Another round of storms is likely Wednesday morning with
  damaging winds and flooding possible.

- Conditional but potentially high-impact storm event possible in
  northern Oklahoma on Thursday afternoon.

- Hotter and drier into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Upslope, upscale, dive southeast, repeat. That process is playing
out for the nth time on satellite/radar across the Palmer Divide and
Raton Mesa. Multiple supercells have developed across the high
terrain of southeast Colorado just east of I-25 within an
anomalously humid and unstable airmass. At the moment, very little
forward propagation is occurring. However, a 20 knot southeasterly
low-level jet is directed from northwest Oklahoma back into the jet.
This could provide an impetus for storms to grow upscale and move
southeastward across the northern panhandles toward northwest
Oklahoma during the early morning hours. Additional elevated
convection is possible toward daybreak near the terminus of the
low-level jet across southeast, central, and northwest Oklahoma.

Eventually, guidance shows low-to-medium confidence that the cluster
of storms (or a new cluster in its MCV) will move southeast across
the area during the morning hours. The primary concerns will be
damaging wind gusts in the vicinity of any rear-inflow jets and
additional heavy rainfall across already saturated soils. A flood
watch remains in effect across the northern and eastern parts of
the area through the morning.

What happens after the first round is a little more uncertain, but
the indication from CAM guidance (such as it is) would suggest
another lull for most of the afternoon and evening across our area
in the subsidence regime behind the morning cluster of storms. And
then our attention would turn to another game of upslope, upscale,
dive southeast, repeat late tonight.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The long-awaited pattern breakdown is upon us in the short term.
Like many pattern breakdowns, it will involve a crescendo and finale
first. That finale may well take place on Thursday afternoon and
evening as the ridge deamplifies and lets 40 knots of zonal 500 mb
flow into the northern half of our area. In conjunction with an
unstable antecedent airmass and a potential outflow boundary from
tonight's storm cluster(s), the stage will be set for perhaps a less
June-like and a more May-like convective event. Almost all global
and CAM guidance shows a sharp, backed low-level jet across north
central Oklahoma Thursday afternoon. If this comes to pass and there
is a stalled boundary, the environment would be favorable for
supercells with large hail, a tornado risk, and the potential for
dangerous flash flooding in a part of Oklahoma that has seen
excessive rain over the last two weeks. Even if all of the
ingredients don't come together in a classic manner for supercells,
the ejection of that speed max across the area seems likely to
trigger another round/cluster of storms with a severe/flooding risk.

On Friday, the ridge will begin to press eastward across essentially
the entire southern portion of the CONUS, trapped in by that zonal
flow across the central tier of the country. For us, that means a
beginning to the upcoming warm-up. Won't rule out rain/storm chances
altogether especially across northern Oklahoma further from the
ridge axis, but it doesn't look like yet another wash-out based on
current guidance.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The upper-level pattern will spend most of the long-term period
reorienting itself so that early in the period (Saturday/Sunday)
there will be an anomalously strong trough over the western CONUS,
and in the latter part of the period (Monday/Tuesday) there will be
an anomalously strong ridge over the eastern CONUS. We'll remain on
the western periphery of the ridge, which is usually a great place
for things to start to heat up. Given all of the recent rainfall,
this heatwave is probably going to be more of a "boil" than a "bake"
event, and it wouldn't shock me if the current gridded forecast
output is too high with actual air temperatures, but too low with
"feel-like" temperatures on multiple days. Precipitation chances
will also dwindle with sunny days ahead for the foreseeable
future.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Showers and thunderstorms currently across northwest Oklahoma are
expected to slowly advance east-southeast this morning into the
afternoon. The highest chance of storms are across the northern
half to two-thirds of Oklahoma. Gusty, variable winds, hail, and
reduced visibility are possible in the most intense storms.

MVFR to IFR ceilings are ongoing this morning across northern
Oklahoma. Ceilings should improve at most terminals by this
afternoon as storms exit. Outside of thunderstorms, east to
southeast winds are expected to continue.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  88  71  91  76 /  40  20  10  20
Hobart OK         93  72  97  75 /  30  20  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  96  75  97  77 /  10  10   0   0
Gage OK           86  67  94  67 /  50  40  30  60
Ponca City OK     82  68  86  71 /  60  50  50  60
Durant OK         91  76  92  77 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ004>013-015-
     017>020-024>032-039>043-046>048-051-052.

TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
717 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

OKZ006-007-012-241245-
Garfield OK-Alfalfa OK-Grant OK-
717 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Alfalfa,
southwestern Grant and northwestern Garfield Counties through 745 AM
CDT...

At 716 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles southwest of Ingersoll to 4 miles
southeast of Aline. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cherokee, Helena, Carmen, Goltry, Jet, Aline, Nash, Hillsdale,
Carrier, Lambert, Ingersoll, and Great Salt Plains Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3645 9799 3645 9811 3646 9811 3646 9848
      3647 9849 3680 9849 3680 9800
TIME...MOT...LOC 1216Z 281DEG 25KT 3676 9843 3646 9841

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MDU

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
733 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

OKZ020-241300-
Payne OK-
733 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Payne
County through 800 AM CDT...

At 733 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Yale. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Yale and Quay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3604 9662 3604 9679 3616 9679 3616 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 1233Z 268DEG 2KT 3612 9669

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MDU

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
759 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

OKZ020-241330-
Payne OK-
759 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Payne
County through 830 AM CDT...

At 759 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Oilton, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Yale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3602 9670 3616 9670 3616 9662 3602 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 1259Z 301DEG 7KT 3608 9662

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MDU