Flash Flood Warning 59, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
646 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 644 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

- One or more rounds of storms expected from this morning through
  early tonight; damaging winds possible.

- Chances for evening storms again on Wednesday and potentially
  Thursday.

- Hotter and drier into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Northwest flow in, MCS out. That's a common forecast input/output
for us in late June as the subtropical ridge begins to intensify out
west. It's a pattern that we're going to find a little hard to shake
through the rest of this week, as well.

That pattern will be in place today. Guidance suggests the existence
of an MCV from storms near the Palmer Divide on Monday afternoon.
This MCV will slowly drift south-southeast within the steering flow
and reach southwest Kansas by mid-to-late morning. While that's
occurring, surface winds will begin backing again along and west of
the 100th meridian within the lee trough zone. This will begin
pumping the zone of 70-73 dewpoints northwestward toward the MCV.

A couple of scenarios are possible, and those scenarios are in turn
complicated by the possible existence of convection along the
outflow boundary near the Red River around daybreak. Uncertainty in
timing of the MCS is uncertain, as some members of the 0Z HREF (the
HRRR and NAM especially) depict convection initiation as early as
mid-morning. If this was to occur, forecast soundings suggest that
the primary well of instability would be elevated above a stable
boundary layer. In this case, the damaging wind threat could be
initially limited until the MCS reaches the richer boundary-layer
moisture in southern Oklahoma/western north Texas by late morning or
early afternoon.

Meanwhile, another round of convection will develop across the high
terrain of Colorado and the panhandles and move southeast during the
evening hours. This is where the presence of a midday MCS and its
impacts on the environment will play a large role in determining the
breadth of severe weather impacts across our area. For instance, the
18Z NAM 3km depicts no storms until an MCS moves through during the
evening. The environment ahead of that MCS would be primed for
significant severe wind gusts with large looping hodographs and
moderate instability. Meanwhile, the 0Z NAM 3km does depict a midday
squall line diving southeastward across western Oklahoma, and the
subsidence behind it is sufficient to quash any further storms for
the rest of the day and night.

It goes without saying: there will be storms, most likely in the
form of a squall line, across our area today (probably west of I-35
for the most part). Beyond that, confidence is limited in the
cascading impacts of prior convection, so remain alert for changes
in the forecast.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Northwest flow season will continue on Wednesday and especially
Wednesday night. The ridge will continue to hold strong over the
middle Rio Grande Valley with flow pinched over the Central Plains,
which will very likely encourage another round of convection to
develop off of the Front Range and Raton Mesa. The NAM shows a 35
knot 850 mb LLJ across the panhandles to just east of the 100th
meridian, which presumably will favor a continuation of any MCS into
at least the northwestern part of Oklahoma Wednesday evening.
Similar to other northwest flow years, temperatures will be rather
bifurcated across the forecast area: western north Texas, near
the core of the ridge, will approach 100 degrees. Meanwhile,
northern Oklahoma will likely see impacts of outflow boundaries on
the diurnal cycle and will remain in the 80s.

The pattern looks to break down at least a little bit on Thursday as
the ridge deamplifies and spreads eastward. This will most likely
add a few degrees to everyone's temperatures. Right now, NBM inputs
suggest dewpoints will actually drop a few degrees Thursday relative
to today/Wednesday, in large part because surface winds veer some.
Given how much rain the area has seen recently, that doesn't feel
like a given. Storm chances Thursday may very well stay to our north
across Kansas, though northern Oklahoma is far enough removed from
the ridge to warrant mentionable PoPS as well.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

The northwest flow regime will break down by Saturday at the latest.
The subtropical ridge will slide back east and amplify across the
southeast US in response to a trough approaching the Pacific
Northwest. For us, there are a few sensible impacts:

-Temperatures will start heating up again by the weekend, and Heat
Advisory criteria may once again be met over a 3-5 day span
consecutively during the afternoon.

-Rain chances will markedly decrease over the weekend and into early
next week, as well.

There is an indication that the upcoming period of ridging will then
retrograde and center itself back over the southern/central Plains
during week 2, but that is beyond the current long-term forecast.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Showers and thunderstorms currently across northwest Oklahoma are
expected to slowly advance southeast this morning into the
afternoon. Ahead of these thunderstorms, additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible today. PROB30s were
included at most terminals to account for this. Gusty, variable
winds, hail, and reduced visibility are possible in the most
intense storms.

There is a chance additional showers and thunderstorms may occur
overnight. However, there is high uncertainty on this scenario.
Therefore, they were not included in this TAF issuance.

Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings are ongoing this morning.
Ceilings should improve at most terminals by this afternoon.
However, KSWO, KPNC, and KWWR may remain at MVFR for an extended
period of time.

Outside of thunderstorms, east to southeast winds are expected to
continue.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  88  72  89  73 /  50  60  30  50
Hobart OK         94  71  95  73 /  40  50  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  94  74  96  75 /  20  30   0   0
Gage OK           91  68  88  68 /  60  60  30  30
Ponca City OK     82  69  84  70 /  60  70  50  70
Durant OK         90  76  92  76 /  50  40  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...10

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