Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
205 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- Flood Watch in effect for southwest Oklahoma and western north
  Texas this morning.

- Strong to severe storms possible this morning.

- Strong to severe storms possible late Sunday afternoon and
  evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Warm air advection/isentropic ascent has resulted in the
development of showers and thunderstorms across southwest Oklahoma
into western north Texas as the warm conveyer belt aloft rotates
to the north and east of the surface low. Thunderstorm coverage
should continue to increase with the potential for one or two
clusters of thunderstorms that will generally move to the east-
northeast this morning.

Heavy rainfall and flooding will be potential hazard given
precipitable water values are progged to >2" near and south of the
Red River. A Flood Watch remains in effect for southwest/south
central Oklahoma and western north Texas. Large hail is also a
potential hazard given a large amount of elevated instability
(i.e., MUCAPE ~3000 to 4000 J/kg) and the amount of instability in
the hail growth zone (i.e., ~1000 to 1500 J/kg of CAPE in the -10
to -30 deg C layer). The risk of damaging wind gusts is a bit
more limited given these storms are generally elevated. However,
for locations across western North Texas, there is some risk of
damaging wind gusts given the close proximity to the diffuse
surface boundary. Finally, these thunderstorms are also producing
quite a bit of cloud-to-ground lightning.

Thunderstorms should generally move out of the area by early to
mid afternoon with decreasing cloud cover from northwest to
southeast. Below-normal temperatures are expected in the storms'
wake with highs only in the low to mid 80s deg F.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

There is low chance of showers and storms Friday night into
Saturday morning in association with weak isentropic ascent.
Otherwise, most locations will likely remain dry during the day
Saturday. More sunshine and a return to southerly winds will
result in warmer weather with high ranging from the mid 80s to mid
90s deg F.

An MCS (mesoscale convective system) will likely develop across
the Central Plains Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. The
remnants of this complex may impact northern Oklahoma Saturday
night/early Sunday morning; however, the most intense part will
likely remain in Kansas.

Hot weather returns Sunday afternoon as the low-level thermal
ridge strengthens ahead of an approaching cold front. High
temperatures will be back into the mid 90s to low 100s deg F with
heat index values above 105 deg F. Breezy southerly winds should
help temper the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT).

By late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, a cold front is
forecast to advance into northern Oklahoma. A highly unstable air
mass is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front with ~3000 to
4000+ J/kg of MLCAPE and ~40 knots of effective bulk shear. Strong
to severe thunderstorms are possible near the cold front.
However, some model guidance is showing a tendency toward
anafrontal structure, which would limit the magnitude of the
severe weather risk.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Northwest to west-northwest flow will continue to persist across
the Southern Plains as a ~596+ dam mid-level ridge remains
entrenched across the southwest U.S. With northwest flow aloft, an
active weather pattern will continue into next week with ongoing
chances for showers and thunderstorms as MCSs and/or effective
cold fronts advance southward. As a result, temperatures should
remain in check (i.e., not become too hot) next week. Generally
seasonable to slightly below normal temperatures are expected.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Showers/storms expected to increase overnight with chances
continuing into Friday. Variable gusty winds could be possible
with some of the storms. Winds will be generally from the E and
NE with winds shifting towards the SE Friday. VFR/MVFR ceilings
expected as well this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  82  70  87  74 /  40  20  20  10
Hobart OK         84  68  90  73 /  40  20  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  85  70  91  74 /  60  20  20   0
Gage OK           84  67  90  74 /  20  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     83  69  86  74 /  10  20  20  40
Durant OK         84  73  89  76 /  80  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ036>041-044>046-
     050.

TX...Flood Watch until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ083>090.

&&

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...25

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
147 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

OKZ033-034-036-190715-
Harmon OK-Greer OK-Jackson OK-
147 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Jackson, southeastern Harmon and south central Greer Counties through
215 AM CDT...

At 147 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southwest of Duke, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Duke and McQueen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3452 9953 3457 9974 3479 9970 3468 9940
TIME...MOT...LOC 0647Z 203DEG 8KT 3461 9962

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Mahale

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
248 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

OKZ022-190815-
Washita OK-
248 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Washita
County through 315 AM CDT...

At 248 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southwest of Dill City. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sentinel, Dill City, and Rocky.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3527 9891 3513 9889 3517 9936 3532 9936
TIME...MOT...LOC 0748Z 086DEG 1KT 3523 9919

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Mahale

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
323 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

OKZ035>038-044-190915-
Kiowa OK-Tillman OK-Cotton OK-Comanche OK-Jackson OK-
323 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern
Comanche, northwestern Cotton, northeastern Jackson, south central
Kiowa and northern Tillman Counties through 415 AM CDT...

At 323 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles west of Tom Steed Reservoir to 3 miles
west of Cache to 3 miles southwest of Geronimo. Movement was
northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lawton, Cache, Snyder, Geronimo, Mountain Park, Indiahoma, Manitou,
Faxon, Headrick, Tom Steed Reservoir, Fort Sill, Wichita Mountains
Wildlife Refuge, Doris Campground, and The Visitor Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3483 9916 3478 9865 3456 9816 3436 9848
      3449 9872 3451 9900 3458 9922
TIME...MOT...LOC 0823Z 241DEG 8KT 3479 9908 3461 9868 3444 9842

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Mahale

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
449 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SSE Frederick         34.35N 98.99W
06/19/2026  M68 MPH          Tillman            OK   ASOS

&&